PUBLICITY RELEASE
EMBARGO: 8.30 PM TUESDAY OCTOBER 7 2008

Maori Voters Back Labour In Maori Television Poll

A political poll commissioned by Maori Television shows that Labour has a clear majority of support amongst Maori voters (52 per cent) followed by the Maori party (20 per cent) and National (15 per cent). As many Maori voters would support NZ First (five per cent) as they would the Greens (five per cent) while United Future and ACT gather less than one per cent support.

Special analysis of Maori voters’ opinions of political parties and politicians was unveiled tonight (Tuesday October 7) on KOWHIRI ’08 – a series of 10 political programmes screening on Maori Television every Tuesday and Wednesday at 8.30 PM from October 7 to November 5. KOWHIRI ’08 is co-hosted by Native Affairs presenter Julian Wilcox and Te Kaea political reporter Tina Wickliffe and includes expert commentary from panelists Ms Sandra Lee and Dr Ann Sullivan as well as additional observations by political scientist Dr Maria Bargh and Dr Ranginui Walker.

A total of eight political polls over the next four weeks – prepared by Baseline Consultancy and TNS Direct – will assess the intentions and influences of approximately 4,000 Maori voters on the General roll and Maori electorates in the build-up to election night. The first political poll released tonight on KOWHIRI ’08 polled 420 voter eligible Maori aged 18 and over on either the general or the Maori electoral rolls between September 18 and 28 2008. The margin of error is 4.8 per cent.

On leader preferences and assessments, Maori voters’ support for Labour is reflected in their much stronger preference for Helen Clark (38 per cent) for Prime Minister than John Key (10 per cent) who enjoys as much support for preferred PM as Winston Peters (10 per cent). Less than five per cent of Maori voters polled selected Pita Sharples (four per cent) or Tariana Turia (three per cent) as their preferred PM.

Similarly, Maori voters rate Helen Clark’s overall standard of performance as Prime Minister (70 per cent) twice as high as John Key’s performance as leader of the Opposition (36 per cent rated him as performing that role very well or well). In terms of specific personality attributes, Maori are considerably more likely to rate Clark than Key as being:

Attribute Clark
% Key
%
More honest than other politicians 61 22
Down to earth 74 42
In touch with the needs of Maori 52 14
Rather inexperienced 8 66
Base: Maori voters 420 420

However, Maori voters are more likely to believe that John Key would choose the Maori Party (53 per cent) as a coalition partner for National than ACT (50 per cent) or the Greens (44 per cent) and certainly NZ First (27 per cent). But if NZ First was the only coalition party that would enable Key to become Prime Minister, then 69 per cent of Maori voters believe he would still do a deal with Winston Peters.

MMP VOTING: PARTY VOTE: If a general election was held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for?

18-28 September 2008
Total Maori Non-Maori
% % %
Labour 41 52 35
National 40 15 51
NZ First 4 5 3
Green Party 5 5 6
ACT 1.7 0.6 2.2
United Future 0.4 0.3 0.5
Maori Party 6 20 0.4
Alliance 0.1 - 0.1
Christian Heritage - - -
Progressive 0.2 0.3 0.1
Destiny NZ 0.3 0.6 0.1
All others 1.5 1.4 1.5
Base: 1172 355 817
Don’t know/ undecided 11.3 12.6 10.7
Would not vote 2.9 2.9 2.9
Base: 1365 420 945

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER:

18-28 September 2008
Total Maori Non-Maori
Main candidates % % %
Helen Clark 34 38 32
John Key 28 10 36
Winston Peters 5 10 3
Pita Sharples 1.2 3.6 0.2
Tariana Turia 1 3 -
None 4 5 4
Don’t know 19 20 18
Base: 1365 420 945

PERFORMANCE OF HELEN CLARK:

18-28 September 2008
Total Maori Non-Maori
% % %
Very well 22 24 21
Fairly well 40 46 37
Total – Performed well 62 70 58
Neither well nor poorly 12 10 13
Fairly poorly 13 11.4 14
Very Poorly 11 6.4 13
Total – Performed poorly 24 18 27
Don’t know 2 2 1
Base: 1365 420 945

PERFORMANCE OF JOHN KEY:

18-28 September 2008
Total Maori Non-Maori
% % %
Very well 11 6 13
Fairly well 39 30 43
Total – Performed well 50 36 56
Neither well nor poorly 15 16 15
Fairly poorly 16 20 14
Very poorly 11 18 8
Total – Performed poorly 27 38 22
Don’t know 8 10 7
Base: 1365 420 945

HELEN CLARK:

18-28 September 2008
Total Maori Non-Maori
% % %
Is more honest than most politicians? 51 61 47
Is down to earth? 70 74 68
Understands the economic problems facing New Zealand? 65 71 62
Has a lot of personality? 43 52 39
Is rather inexperienced? 11 8 13
Is out of touch with ordinary people? 41 36 43
In touch with the needs of Maori? 55 52 56
Base: 1365 420 945

JOHN KEY:

18-28 September 2008
Total Maori Non-Maori
% % %
Is more honest than most politicians? 36 22 42
Is down to earth? 54 42 59
Understands the economic problems facing New Zealand? 67 57 71
Has a lot of personality? 48 44 51
Is rather inexperienced? 66 66 66
Is out of touch with ordinary people? 42 55 37
In touch with the needs of Maori? 23 14 27
Base: 1365 420 945

POTENTIAL COALITION PARTIES WITH THE NATIONAL PARTY: Who would John Key and the National Party choose as a coalition partner if National needed their support to form a ruling coalition party after the next election?

Potential coalition party with National Party Total
Yes
% Maori
Yes
% Non Maori
Yes
%
Maori Party 49 53 47
New Zealand First/Winston Peters 22 27 19
ACT 56 50 58
Greens 40 44 38
United Future 45 37 48
Base: 1365 420 945

Would John Key form a coalition with Winston Peters/ NZ First if this was the only way that Key could become Prime Minister of a National lead Government?

Total Yes I believe he would form a coalition
% Maori
Yes
% Non Maori
Yes
%
56 69 50
Base: 1365 420 945

The next poll will focus on the Maori electorate of Tamaki Makaurau (Wednesday October 15) followed by Waiariki (Tuesday October 21); Te Tai Hauauru (Wednesday October 22); Te Tai Tokerau (Tuesday October 28); Te Tai Tonga (Wednesday October 29); Hauraki Waikato (Tuesday November 4); and Ikaroa Rawhiti (Wednesday November 5).

Maori Television's coverage of the 2008 General Election “ KOWHIRI ™08 “ continues with a look at the minor parties including NZ First, the Greens and the Maori Party tomorrow night (Wednesday October 8) at 8.30 PM. For more information, go to the website www.maoritelevision.com.

Ends

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