PUBLICITY RELEASE

TUESDAY OCTOBER 21 2008

Waiariki Voters Support Flavell In Maori Television Poll

A political poll commissioned by Maori Television shows that two thirds of Waiariki voters currently support Te Ururoa Flavell from the Maori Party as their local Maori MP (66 per cent) – twice as high as Labour candidate Mita Ririnui (29 per cent).

At the party vote level, however, Waiariki voters are almost evenly divided in their support between Labour (40 per cent) and the Maori Party (38 per cent). National wins just 10 per cent of Maori votes while NZ First (five per cent) and the Greens (five per cent) attract the same level of party vote.

Of note, however, is that a fifth of this electorate’s sample of 500 Maori voters are still undecided, indicating there may be some shift in support in the weeks leading up to election day on November 8.

The special analysis of Maori voters’ opinions of political parties, electoral candidates and issues in the Waiariki electorate was unveiled tonight (Tuesday October 21) on KOWHIRI ’08 – a series of political programmes screening on Maori Television every Tuesday and Wednesday at 8.30 PM until November 5.

The next political poll will focus on the Maori electorate of Te Tai Hauauru (Wednesday October 22) followed by Te Tai Tokerau (Tuesday October 28); Te Tai Tonga (Wednesday October 29); Hauraki Waikato (Tuesday November 4); and Ikaroa Rawhiti (Wednesday November 5).

Prepared by Baseline Consultancy and TNS Direct, the Waiariki research polled 500 voter eligible Maori voters registered on the Waiairki Maori roll between October 7 to 15 2008. The maximum margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

Helen Clark is this poll’s most preferred politician to be Prime Minister. Just less than a third (31 per cent) of this study’s voters opted for Clark as PM. Winston Peters was the next most preferred option for Prime Minister (16 per cent), more than twice as popular as John Key (seven per cent) or Pita Sharples (seven per cent). Again there is a relatively high proportion (23 per cent) of voters who have no opinion as to which politician would be the best Prime Minister.

The four issues rated as the most pressing for Maori in Waiariki were: access to quality education for their children (93 per cent – very important); positive future for their children (91 per cent); a sense that people can feel safe in their homes or out on the street (87 per cent); and access to affordable quality health services (82 per cent). The ‘second tier”’ issues are: good jobs in my area (76 per cent); fair settlement of Treaty of Waitangi claims (69 per cent); and access to affordable quality housing in my area (67 per cent).

Apart from the Maori Party’s ability to fairly settle treaty claims (60 per cent), no one party was widely regarding as being able to attend to these issues on their own. At most, 38 per cent of this sample thought that Labour might do the best job of providing employment, quality education and health services and housing in their local area. Between a quarter to a third of Waiariki voters believed that the Maori Party would do a better job on these key issues as well as providing a positive future for their children (34 per cent).

MMP VOTING – PARTY VOTE: If a general election was held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for?

Political Party

Party Vote %

Labour

40

Maori Party

38

National

10

NZ First

5

Green Party

5

Progressive

-

ACT

0.3

United Future

0.3

Alliance

-

All others

1.8

Base (those with an opinion)

396

Don’t know/undecided

20

Would not vote

0.6

Total Sample

500

PREFERRED ELECTORAL CANDIDATE – WAIARIKI:

Waiariki Candidate

Candidate %

Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori Party)

66

Mita Ririnui (Labour)

29

Other

5

Base (those with an opinion)

443

None

2

Don’t know

9

Total Sample

500

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER:

Main candidates

Total %

Helen Clark

31

Winston Peters

16

John Key

7

Pita Sharples

7

Tariana Turia

4

Tim Barnett

1.2

Jeanette Fitzsimmons

1

Others (less than 0.5%)

11

None

3

Don’t know

20

Base

500

IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR MAORI VOTERS IN WAIARIKI:

Issue

Very important %

Quite important %

Not that important %

Of no importance to me %

Don’t know not applicable %

Quality education for my children

93

4

1

0.6

1.4

Access to affordable quality health services

82

14

3.2

0.8

0.4

Fair settlement of treaty claims

69

20

9

2.4

0.6

Good jobs in my area

76

19

4.4

0.6

0.4

Access to affordable, quality housing in my area

67

22

8

2.2

0.8

People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street

87

9

2.6

0.6

0.6

My children will have a positive future

91

6

0.8

1

0.8

Base: 500

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY MAORI VOTERS BELIEVE WOULD DO THE BEST JOB OF DELIVERING ON THESE ISSUES:

Issue

Labour Party

%

Maori Party

%

National Party

%

NZ First

%

Green Party

%

None

%

Don’t know

%

Your children receive quality education

38

30

10

2

2

4

14

You can access affordable quality health services

38

32

8

4

2

4

13

There is fair settlement of treaty claims

23

60

2

2

1

3

8

There are good jobs in my area

38

25

10

3

2

5

17

Access to affordable, quality housing in my area

38

27

7

3

2

6

17

People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street

27

28

18

6

1

5

14

Your children will have a positive future

31

34

9

3

5

4

13

Base: 500

WHICH WAIARIKI CANDIDATE WOULD MAORI VOTERS ASSOCIATE WITH THESE STATEMENTS:

Statements

Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori Party)

Mita Ririnui (Labour)

Other Candidates

%

None

%

D/K

%

Can be trusted

57

24

5

8

18

Will deliver on promises

53

24

5

7

20

Knows the needs of the local people

66

30

5

2

12

Is experienced in politics

46

38

5

3

20

Is a capable leader

61

25

3

5

16

Would be good in a crisis

55

25

4

4

21

Has lots of personality

60

21

3

3

18

Base :500

Maori Television’s coverage of the 2008 General Election – KOWHIRI ’08 – is co-hosted by Native Affairs presenter Julian Wilcox and Te Kaea political reporter Tina Wickliffe and includes expert commentary from panelists Ms Sandra Lee and Dr Ann Sullivan as well as additional observations by political scientist Dr Maria Bargh and Dr Ranginui Walker. It screens every Tuesday and Wednesday at 8.30 PM until November 5 with live-to-air election night coverage on Saturday November 8 from 8.00 PM. For more information, go to the website www.maoritelevision.com.

ENDS

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