Sunday23rd August 2009:

Q+A’s Panel Discussions with Paul Holmes, Dr Therese Arseneau, Healtheries CEO Sarah Kennedy & Urban Maori Authorities CEO Willie Jackson.

The full length video interviews and panel discussions from this morning’s Q+A can be seen on tvnz.co.nz at, http://tvnz.co.nz/q-and-a-news

PANEL DISCUSSIONS led by PAUL HOLMES

Response to JOHN KEY interview

PAUL So what do our panel have to say. Before we start talking let's just remind ourselves of what John Key was saying about single currency.

John Key: 'I think it's not a completely barmy idea, it's not one of those things you can say well this is just madness, I'm saying I think there are benefits and pros and cons. Do I think it'll happen, the honest answer is no.'

PAUL However he's very briefed up on it, he's done some serious thinking about it and of course it works in Europe, the single currency. What do you think?

SARAH KENNEDY – Healtheries CEO
I'm not going to talk about the currency because I don’t think that I know enough, however business with Australia and anything that promotes our business with Australia I think is fantastic, 50% of our sales are in Australia so we really enjoy good trade with them.

PAUL And you will have appreciated I spose the six ministers just going across this week to discuss all aspects of our economic relations?

SARAH Well totally anything that helps us increase our trade there and our sales there, which can be at a regulatory basis or just better relationships.

PAUL Are there still big impediments?

SARAH Not really, you know 50% of our sales are in Australia and as I said – we never look at it as international, we kind of just call it Australasia now, and in fact two weeks ago I did five states in five days, and when I talked to all the Australians and the retailers they never see us as New Zealanders, and in fact one of our most famous brands over there we brought from Australia 25 years ago, so no I don’t feel a lot of impediment.

PAUL So you see from what Sarah's saying we're already very close, what do you make of Key's performance in taking the Cabinet Ministers this week and the relationship he seems to have developed between himself and Kevin Rudd who of course is a Labour man, well he's a politician.

WILLIE JACKSON – Urban Maori Authorities CEO
Well it's amazing isn't it really when you look at it, the last time out we had Labour and the Tories over there, this time it's the reverse, and it brings you up with the point, does it really matter, when you talk about left and right now in terms of business, that’s the point isn't it?

PAUL Is this the non ideological age we appear to be moving into?

WILLIE Well it's looking that way. Key's looking like Tony Blair, you know he's looking like this pragmatist, he'll just deal with anyone, and they all get on so famously and it's amazing watching it, and here we are you know setting up this great love affair with Australia, the republic, and meanwhile Key's just brought back all these titles that you want a part of you know, you want to be Sir Paul, we all know that. So on one hand you know he gives titles to all that lot in Wellington last week, and then on the other side he said he wasn’t to get closer with the republic, amazing really but he has the ability to be able to satisfy everyone, he's just got this uncanny ability to be able to work with Tories, work with Labour people.

PAUL He's a deal maker that is quite right, and of course one commentator was saying how tin eared of Key is it that when we're talking about parliament he perks, he takes six minutes flying business class or first class across and they finish up watching the rugby.

WILLIE And he gets away with it.

PAUL It hasn’t hurt at all, it's enhanced.

WILLIE He goes up in the polls.

THERESE ARSENEAU – Political Analyst
Well the interesting thing is that if you look in the past polling, Labour in the last election was seen as the stronger party in terms of foreign policy and we'd trust Helen Clark more over dealing with foreign countries, so it was a really important trip for John Key and he has handled it extremely well, and I think what he has done – he does have a very good sense of what is acceptable to the public, for example on that common currency issue, I think he hit the nail on the head. The reality is our two currencies are incredibly entwined. We talk a lot about the huge fluctuations in our dollar up against the US dollar, but the interesting thing is we tend to follow the Australian dollar much more closely, it fluctuates under the US dollar as well but we're closely tied, but the point there, and he's made it very clearly, is politically it's a non seller I think.

WILLIE We want our own independence don’t we?

THERESE Well we're not talking about an ANZAC dollar, we'd be taking the Australian dollar, and there's something I think in terms of our independence.

PAUL We lose monetary policy independence as he says but at the same time we move pretty closely together anyway, but he's amazingly thought out on it, but quite calmly knows it's a political dead duck. I spose it would be with you – a single currency?

WILLIE No we don’t want the Aussie currency here, and I don’t want to be part of their foreign policy either.

PAUL They'd take nice notes.

WILLLIE Well you go live there Paul, but you should go there, so I could take over this show, I mean Therese and I.

PAUL Winston once said I'll drive you to the airport.

WILLIE But we value our independence and that’s why – I mean he's saying all the right things, but then he says no well we're not going to actually join up yet, and the same with foreign policy in terms of ...

SARAH Common currency, it's not the most important thing either, I mean we've got far more initiatives that they're doing which is on aid, which is on military, which is on science, which is regulation. Currency, it's just sort of a bit of a red herring and it creates this noise, that we all get this whole nationalism – it's not really a priority, it's not going to increase our business with Australia at all.

PAUL Let us speak about the ANZAC Ready Reaction Force, and he said you know it's not going to involve complete merging of the two military forces, and he acknowledge that it's largely symbolic. Do you like the idea Willie?

WILLIE No, not at all, no no very dangerous cos I think we could get caught into their policy and we already know the Americans are absolutely in love with them.

PAUL Well all we've got to do is say it's regional ready reaction.

WILLIE Well you can say all those things but once you join up with the ANZAC force, and I know we've got this history and all that, but I think it's dangerous, we've distinguished ourselves with our nuclear policy, with our stand in Iraq, we don’t want to be going down the same way as the previous Australian Prime Minister, they're in love with America, we all know that. I don’t want to be caught up in that sort of policy.

THERESE It's a fine line again, and it'll be one that he'll have to walk delicately because there are certain areas where you could see that it would be highly beneficial, and you're right Paul in the Pacific specifically, but the other thing is there are certain issues where we are quite different, and if you look at their defence white paper that’s come out recently, it's a very different vision of the military for Australia, and one area where we really are quite different is our approach to China for example, and that could impact in terms of our relations in the Pacific.

PAUL But there's another thing too, your purchasing options might improve, if you were combined with the Australians who of course get very good deals on their ordinance I spose because they're so close to the wicked America.

WILLIE The world loves our stand, we led the way, Lange led the way, you want to get away from all that, you want to be an Australian.

PAUL I want to move to smacking. Now he was very astute on how he's dealing with the result of this referendum. Here's John Key on the smacking and what he might do.

John Key: 'There are possible changes that could occur there that I think can give New Zealand parents a high degree of comfort that the law as it's passed with the intent that I think parliament has that good parents shouldn’t be criminalised for lightly smacking a child, is being adhered to.'

PAUL So there's an example it seems to me of how John Key senses the pulse of the public, so he's saying I acknowledge the vote I'm not gonna change it but there might be some areas we can add comfort, and everyone's happy.

WILLIE Well he shows respect, because that was a huge turnout, you’ve gotta give them credit all the anti smacking or 88%.

PAUL The pro smackers.

WILLIE Well yeah the pro smackers, but that wasn’t a bad turnout 54%. That’s not a bad turnout for a postal vote. The other side of things, and people should remember this, is referendums are dangerous. If you took a referendum on whether women could get the vote say 50 years ago they wouldn’t have got it, homosexual law reform, wouldn’t have got it. You take a referendum on whether the Treaty is relevant today it would get thrown out.

THERESE And the question itself was complicated as well, as Paul found out, and the bottom line is we are still a representative democracy right, and we do expect our decision makers to hear what the public says, but then to make a knowing decision, but he is dancing on the head of a pin isn't he? He's not going to change the law as he promised, but he's going to try to find some way to make it more acceptable.

PAUL He massaged the worries but he shows no sign of falling off the head of that pin does he?

THERESE Well he's the master of the well timed compromise, I think it's a real skill that he has.

*****

Response to DAVID KILCULLEN interview

PAUL Willie should the SAS be going back to Afghanistan?

WILLIE Oh I don’t think so, I don’t think so, and very interesting interview that was. I think that when you look at world opinion it was interesting he was saying the world was still with them. I don’t think so, I think the world is sick and tired of the war, you know there's a lot of similarities with Iraq at the moment, and world opinion is turning against Afghanistan, and just talking about the SAS, Key it was interesting he did so much publicity over the SAS, Clark used to just send the SAS off and no one would know they'd gone anywhere.

PAUL Well that’s Key I spose trying to feel the pulse again, but you know he's very interesting because he points out that – we do not that General McCrystal is coming up I think at the end of this month or the end of next month with a new strategy and I think that – I know that Kilcullen is advising him, and Kilcullen's very much hearts and minds person.

THERESE Which makes me wonder why are we taking away the Provincial Reconstruction Team which seems to fit far more closely into ...

PAUL Are we taking it away or downgrading it?

THERESE Well I think we're shifting aren’t we to a more civilian effort.

WILLIE That’s right, and we got a lot of support for us doing that type of work, that’s sort of our history, New Zealand troops get a lot of support with that type of work.

PAUL Yes, but we might get a lot of support from other quarters too for sending the SAS, and after all if you train an SAS, their training's amazing.

WILLIE Then what should they be doing, that’s the other point.

PAUL Well that’s the point, we've got an SAS and they want to go, they should go.

WILLIE Well they're made for fighting, I mean these are fighting machines.

THERESE And they want to go, from all accounts.

WILLIE Well they don’t join the SAS to go to Palmerston for a cuppa tea do they?

PAUL No they don’t.

SARAH So I just think we also have to think about you know like we talked a lot about the military, we've gotta look at that economic security, can we as New Zealand afford to isolate ourselves right down here, you know we have to see at some time we need the support of the US and so on in the international stage, they're a third of the GDP, by isolating ourselves I think we actually do – we have a threat to our economic security.

PAUL You’ve gotta pay Peter and you’ve gotta pay Paul, you’ve got to honour Caesar and you’ve got to honour God.

WILLLIE Yeah but the world's moving against America, you know that – although Obama might help things cos he's going into a lot of countries and shaking everyone's hands, so-called terrorists' hands, but the world opinion moved very much against America when Bush was in power.

PAUL In that administration but it's not the land of Mordor is it?

THERESE I think the interesting thing he raised was the timeframe, he made it sound like he thought something could happen within five years, most of the estimates I hear are ten to 15 years and the Taliban, I mean there was one great quote that really stuck in my mind, and the Taliban said you know the foreign forces have the watches, we have the time, and basically the question is will they out wait the foreign forces, the foreign forces eventually go home, will there be any change afterwards.

PAUL But when you look at Bamyan where people were doing reconstruction probably helping rebuild wells, providing fresh water, providing security, working with local leadership, it was never in the news. It may have worked.

WILLIE Well the PR side is terrible for these people over there right, so the Yanks they make a mess of it, they make a mess of it because the world – you know they're painted as people who just go into countries, just colonise, just take over, just invade, absolutely.

PAUL Well that’s what he was saying, it doesn’t work anymore in Iraq...

WILLIE There's gotta be a different strategy.

THERESE Well this different strategy is the most hopeful one we've seen yes, because it's going out to the hearts and minds it's taking into account the border with Pakistan, it's about building those government institutions so that we can leave and let the country carry on.

PAUL Trying to build a non corrupt country.

THERESE And it's about poverty too. You look at this election and there's just not the excitement this time that there was last time, I mean the President has disappointed, there's been wide scale corruption and people are really poor, and they're not seeing a big change with their new government.

PAUL You must have been interested in what David Kilcullen was saying about we may be on the verge of a major historic change in the nature of warfare, where wars were decided by the clashing of great armies, and she was all over Rover, and you made a treaty and got on with it, wars were prevented by elite aristocratic foreign affairs negotiators and now you’ve got great big dinosaur armies trying to deal with little Mr Mischief Maker way in the backblocks of Pakistan who can do terrible things

THERESE Well wars now increasingly are less than between sovereign states and more within a sovereign state, and it is a very different style, and it's insurgency, I mean this is an insurgency war, and someone estimated that insurgency wars roughly on average last about 16 years, so you know, but Afghanistan has been going on for longer than that.

WILLIE Well they’ve been invaded by everyone haven't they, if you look at Afghanistan, everyone's gone in there.

PAUL The empire killers, the empire destroyers. Yes he actually believes just in conclusion 'I think that the whole on terror has to be a counter insurgency effort' as he said that at the end didn’t he. Alright the week ahead, the House is going to be sitting next week what are going to be the big political stories, there are a couple of funny ones sitting round as Guyon said to John Key, a threat to the National Party.

WILLIE Yes well it's going to be interesting to see what happens with their President, the President of the National Party who we can talk about but we can't really talk about, but maybe he'll be stepping down, and I'm hoping also that Rodney Hide steps down, you know he's a nice bloke could be a good TV host or something, but you know it's time for Rodney to move on and that could be the big story of the next week. Key could be making a choice.

PAUL To which one would have to say well a chance would be a fine thing. As you say yourself you don’t quite a 250 job easy.

THERESE I think it will be an interesting Cabinet Meeting on Monday, I think also though to be fair to Rodney Hide and we've been quite critical is you know this all came out because of an email from Tau Henare, so I have no idea what's going on behind the scenes.

WILLIE Very principled bloke Tau you know, according to Brian Rudman anyway in the New Zealand Herald.

THERESE But this sort of disunity in the government tends to take a political toll, so I think John Key will be very anxious to dampen this down.

PAUL He will be on very high alert, but certainly the election of that particular president and the complete failure of Wira Gardner to make the board a few weeks ago.

WILLIE Disgraceful, shame on National – just want to get that in.

PAUL And you did too Willie.

SARAH Well I'm going to go back to business again, and I like this time of the year because businesses are either reporting their six months results or their annual results and what the exciting thing is at the moment is we're starting to see significant improvements in businesses coming through, so all of these words about green shoots, it really is starting to happen, so as businesses we made some really tough calls over the last 12 to 18 months, the economy is starting to recover and a lot of us are poised you know for that growth going forward.

THERESE John Key has said that he thinks the recession will be over at the end of this year, we'll come out of recession at the end of this year.

SARAH Yeah but we're all starting to see it now, we're seeing this confidence come back, and as I said we made some hard calls, we've driven the businesses and you know we've got this platform for growth and international growth and the government is actually supporting that at the moment.

PAUL Thank you all very much indeed.

ENDS

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