Happy New Year to all diary readers. Welcome back to my weekly email newsletter for 2011. Election year means there will be plenty to write about and your comments and feedback (preferably constructive!) are always welcome.

Election 2011: Setting the Scene

Parliament resumes for the year next Tuesday but the political year began weeks ago. The quieter month of January is, for most parties, a time to plan and get the house in order for the coming year. This is particularly important in election year.

John Key and Phil Goff both gave ‘State of the Nation’ speeches at the end of January outlining policy initiatives and issues that their parties are likely to pursue in the election campaign. John Key also called a surprise Press Conference this week to confirm the widely predicted election date of Saturday 26 November. It is not common to announce when Election Day will be this far out and many readers will recall Helen Clark seemingly unable to decide on exactly the right date as Election Day deadlines closed in on her.

Key’s announcement has two advantages. It makes him look decisive and confident about the outcome and also shuts down opposition opportunities to criticise him with speculation around the date. He does of course have good reason to feel confident. No recent party or leader has ridden as high in the polls for as long following an election.

Also this week, Phil Goff announced his caucus reshuffle. The need for rejuvenation of the Labour Party front bench has been glaringly obvious since the last election. Although there have a been a couple of ‘winners’ in the reshuffle, it is still a largely unchanged front row – except for Grant Robertson the front bench is composed entirely of Ministers from the last Labour Government – making Labour look like a party without dynamic leadership and few new ideas. Removing GST from fresh produce isn’t going to improve the economy (let alone our health) or win Labour the election.

One gets the feeling that the Labour caucus reshuffle was mostly about being seen to do something in response to Key’s more successful State of the Nation speech and decisive election date announcement.

Rejuvenation is also important within party MP ranks and, over the last few months, several long standing MPs made retirement announcements. The Greens, particularly, will have quite a different make-up in their party list with the retirements of Sue Kedgeley and Keith Locke following on from Sue Bradford and Jeanette Fitzsimmons during this parliamentary term.

The Prime Minister caused quite a stir too when he reiterated (as he did in 2008) that he was not prepared to work with Winston Peters or New Zealand First following the election. He went so far as to say that if Peters held the balance of power the country would have a Phil Goff-led Government.

Like it or not, smaller parties play an important part in determining election outcomes – that’s a feature of MMP. So, why haven’t you heard as much from the smaller parties yet this year? It is often the case, particularly in election year that it is harder for us to be heard as media and the public alike focus predominantly on the two major parties.

The Maori Party was set up with the sole aim of representing Maori when it was felt that Labour wasn’t doing such a good job. However, most voters on the Maori Roll remain loyal to Labour with their party vote (69,172 compared to 39,883 in 2008). Maori party policies and issues will always revolve around putting Maori first. No surprises there and the current difficulties facing Hone Harawira will be a litmus test (for all parties) of style versus substance regarding the principle of an MP stating what they believe their constituents seek.

ACT and the Greens are different. Created to campaign outside the soggy centre of populist politics, both parties can afford to develop and adhere to strong principles. In fact, we both suffer if we don’t do this. Clear points of difference with major parties – between ACT and the National Party and the Greens from Labour respectively – are crucial to our electoral success. Differentiation also means that we must regularly bring new ideas to the political table, which ultimately results in a much healthier environment than the old First Past the Post, two-party system.

An election campaign based around principle-based policies would certainly be both novel and welcome. Labour is already identifying an issues-based campaign but National is making some encouraging noises in terms of a campaign based on fiscal responsibility. Let’s see if they actually follow through on this.

The referendum for favoured political system is attached to this year’s General Election so expect commentary and education campaigns around the options.

Predictions based on current polling are inevitable and might seem easy to make right now. The old saying “A week is a long time in politics” is often found to be correct, but the election is 10 months away. In political terms, this is an eon. Elections always throw up a few surprising outcomes which is what makes politics so interesting.

Lest we Forget

On 3 February 1931, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck Hawke’s Bay, killing 256. There were 525 aftershocks recorded in the following two weeks. The Royal Navy ship HMS Veronica was in port at the time and sent news to the outside world while its crew, along with those of two cargo ships (the Northumberland and Taranaki), joined relief efforts in Napier. Two Navy cruisers, HMS Diomede and HMS Dunedin, were also dispatched from Auckland that afternoon with emergency supplies and a team of doctors and nurses. It remains New Zealand’s deadliest natural disaster and prompted a review of the national building codes.

ENDS

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