'THE NATION'
JUDITH TIZARD & MIKE SMITH
Interviewed by SEAN PLUNKET

Sean Labour's brushing off a damning new poll in the past week that shows it's in real trouble, polling at its lowest point in 15 years. The latest Fairfax Media Research International poll shows party support has slumped to just 29%. National's on 56% enough to govern alone. Leader Phil Goff is dismissing the result saying it doesn’t reflect support for Labour's Capital Gains Tax plans. But yet again questions are being raised about his leadership and his ability to avoid an historic loss at the election. To discuss the fallout I'm joined by former Labour Party General Secretary Mike Smith, now convenor of the Labour Ginger Group the Fabien Society and former Labour MP Judith Tizard. Judith I want to start with you, is this as bad as you’ve seen it in Labour?

Judith Tizard – Former Labour MP
Oh hell no, we've seen it worse than that. I mean we got 28% in the 96 election, and Helen came within a Winston's whisker of forming a government, and I think the funniest thing I saw was the Dominion Post poll headline saying National could govern alone, which is always the kiss of death. It's not great but it's not lost.

Sean Mike Smith you might be particularly disappointed that it suggests that the Capital Gains Tax as I said to Colin James earlier, wasn't a circuit breaker?

Mike Smith – Former Labour General Secretary
Well I don’t think Capital Gains Tax is the sort of thing that provides a yeehaa moment in politics. I don’t think it works like that.

Sean Then why did you do it?

Judith Because it's good policy.

Mike Because it's good policy and it's good for the country, and I think that’s the point. The Capital Gains Tax – I think what happened was it showed up that National had expected it would be a political opportunity for it, and found that in fact the weight of opinion was in favour of a Capital Gains Tax because it's good for the country. And I think what will be important politically, it won’t have resonated with the majority of the people in the country who don’t have the capital to be taxed on, but what is important about it is that what it allows is for the other policies that Labour is putting forward, like tax free first $5000 of income, like no GST on fruit and vegetables, like a $15 minimum wage. That’s the effect of the Capital Gains Tax that will resonate around the Labour population. So I didn’t ever expect to see an instant response in the polls and I think all those commentators who have played it that way have got it completely wrong. It's a long run policy with a long run effect, and the effect of it will be shown in what it allows to happen for people who have to look after every penny they’ve got.

Sean Judith that’s an interesting point Mike Smith makes, and I wonder when you are battling a Prime Minister as popular across all demographs as John Key is, if it isn't time to say okay let's do something different policy wise to give people a genuine choice so we're not talking Labour like, National like, we're actually developing policies perhaps for the next election not the coming election that give people a choice?

Judith Well that’s what I found really fascinating is Labour's obviously decided not to do the Crosby Textor shadowing game which National did in the last election, where they just everything we said they said us too. I think it's fascinating that Don Brash is back in the picture, and of course he was the catalyst in 2005 for getting every last Labour voter in the country out because they were just bloody appalled at the things he was saying. But you know I like John Key, I think he's a nice guy and he looks to me like he's got his Series C BMW with the GPS at the cliff edge and the GPS and Don Brash are saying drive over, and he's got the good sense not to.

Sean Do you like John Key more than you like Phil Goff?

Judith No I like John Key too but don’t tell him, because you know we've been fighting since we were 17. But no Phil is a good man with a huge policy experience, and I think that that’s what's showing up with John is that he hasn’t got huge policy experience.

Sean But right now the polls would tell us that he doesn’t need it cos he's gonna win on the current numbers.

Judith But come on New Zealanders aren’t complete mugs and when they see Don Brash lurking around the edges, I think people are gonna say well what's in it, and it will come down to policy but it also comes down to personality and coalitions.

Sean Mike Smith you wanted to get a word in there?

Mike Yes I do. I think the conventional wisdom is that Labour has already lost the next election. I think that’s more convention than wisdom to be perfectly honest. I wouldn’t write Labour off for the next election, because I read the Washington Post headlines this morning. There is no sign that the debt problem in the US is going to be resolved in terms of the deadline. There are huge uncertainties in this world. I feel it's a bit like the Japanese people in the northern cities I saw walking around the streets as the tidal wave was about to engulf them. Now that is a possibility that we could have a Lehman style breakdown…

Sean But Mike Smith even under those circumstances the polling shows in the specific polling on economic concerns, shows that more New Zealanders trust National to deal with economic issues than they do Labour.

Mike That’s because we've been living I think in a rather Pollyanna view, that National has predicted that things will come right for three years in a row now and they haven’t, and once uncertainty enters the picture everything changes. So I wouldn’t write Labour off yet at all.

Judith The other thing is that what we've seen in MMP elections is that the campaign is critical. I mean I remember being amazed when in 96 Helen was what 6% in the preferred Prime Minister, and she was the discovery of the election campaign. Now this is a woman who had been Deputy Prime Minister and in parliament since 81. She was discovered by the media, but that was fantastic. So was Peter Dunne. How they perform and how the team performs in the campaign will be absolutely critical.

Sean Can I say that what I hear from both of you is that you're just waiting for the public of New Zealand to wake up to Labour, or does Labour need to change something to change those numbers?

Judith What Labour has got to do is get out and get the focus on those policies. What we haven’t seen in the last three years is of course any focus on a failed government, but we now have an Opposition who is a potential government. We've got the Rugby World Cup coming up, we've got the American financial crisis, we've got all sorts of other things that are going to happen. People are not focusing on Capital Gains Taxes or anything else.

Sean And Mike Smith you're saying another economic meltdown might save Labour?

Mike No, no. I'm saying if uncertainty enters the picture things change. There is definitely a communication challenge for Labour, but the thing is they have a good product, and once people focus their minds on what lies ahead of them in the real world, if labour can communicate that product, and it is a good one, then I think they're in with a chance, and that’s all you need in politics.

Judith It's not a boxing match. What we've got is a coalition government, and if you look at the horizon polls it's perfectly possible that there could be a Labour lead government.

Sean Judith Tizard, Mike Smith, thank you both very much indeed for joining us today.

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