Roy Morgan Poll Shows National Party Support Dipping

Wednesday, 12 October 2011, 11:41 am
Press Release: Roy Morgan Research

Roy Morgan Poll Shows National Party Support Dipping

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for Prime Minister John Key’s National-led Government has fallen to 55.5% (down 6% and back to the level of support in August). Support for Key’s National Party is 51% (down 6%), ACT NZ 1.5% (unchanged), the Maori Party 2.5% (unchanged), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Opposition Parties is at 44.5% (up 6%) — Labour Party 30.5% (up 4.5%), Greens 11.5% (up 4% — the highest for the Greens since before the last election), New Zealand First 1% (down 2.5% — the lowest for more than two years since August 2009), Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held today the National Party would easily be returned to Government.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen 5 points to 137 — the highest since November 2010 with 61.5% (up 1.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24.5% (down 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a sharp drop in support for the National-led Government (55.5%, down 6%), driven lower by a fall in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National (51%, down 6%). The Opposition Parties have strengthened to 44.5% (up 6%) led by strong gains for Labour (30.5%, up 4.5%) and the Greens (11.5%, up 4% - now at their highest since the 2008 New Zealand election.)

“The fall comes after recent instability in financial markets, including in the NZX 50 — New Zealand’s main stock exchange. Despite the fall, National is still expected to win the New Zealand election in November comfortably — its vote at 51% remains 6% above the 45% it received at the 2008 election. It is perhaps due to the widespread belief of an easy win for National that some New Zealanders have begun to consider alternatives as a counter-balance as the election date draws nearer — now within two months.

“Unusually despite the drop in support for the Key Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence rating has risen 5pts to 137 — it’s highest since November 2010. The increase coincides with the first two weeks of the Rugby World Cup — expected to be won by the All Blacks and clearly an event that stirs up an immense amount of national pride.” Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 788 electors from September 12-25, 2011. Of all electors surveyed 7% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

For more, see Scoop Link: [Roy Morgan Research] Morgan Poll

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