First campaign poll shows 5.5% gap between preferred National-Labour coalition options

29 October 2011 media release

RadioLive – HorizonPoll

First campaign poll shows 5.5% gap between preferred National-Labour coalition options

The first poll of the 2011 election campaign shows 42.1% of voters would prefer a National-led government after the November 26 general election.

A Labour-led government is preferred by 36.6% (a 5.5% gap). However, 21.3% are undecided.

The RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll of 887 voters between Tuesday and Friday mornings this week (October 26-28, 2011) shows issues party leaders could face in forming possible coalitions if one is needed after the election:

• 53.3% of people who cast a party vote for the Maori Party at the last election would prefer a Labour-led government, 26.9% a National-led one, while a 19.8% don’t know • 74.3% of Green party voters prefer a Labour-led Government, 10.7% a National-led one, and • 56.9% of New Zealand First voters prefer Labour, 9.7% National while a large 33.4% are undecided.

Support for a National-led Government is strong among Act’s 2008 voters - 85% want a National-led Government, none a Labour-led one while 15% don’t know. United Future voters are less emphatic: 57.7% prefer National, 42.3% Labour.

Among 2008 Labour voters 8.1% now prefer a National-led government. Among 2008 National voters 5.2% now prefer a Labour-led one.

Among the 187,000 registered electors who did not vote last time, the survey indicates 49.1% would prefer a Labour-led government, 17.2% a National one.

RESULTS TABLE

Overall, would you prefer a Labour-led government or a National-led
government after the 26 November 2011 general election?

A. Labour-led
B. National-led
C. I'm not sure
Total A B C

ALL 874 36.6% 42.1% 21.3%

PARTY VOTE 2008
Chose not to vote 15% 49.1% 17.2% 33.7%
Don't know or can't remember 11% 12.6% 32.9% 54.5%
Green Party 5% 74.3% 10.7% 14.9%
Jim Anderton's Progressive Party 1% 91.5% 8.5%
Labour Party 25% 74% 8.1% 17.9%
Maori Party 2% 53.3% 26.9% 19.8%
National Party 33% 5.2% 85.6% 9.2%
New Zealand First Party 3% 56.9% 9.7% 33.4%
Other party 2% 23% 70.3% 6.7%
United Future 1% 42.3% 57.7%
ACT New Zealand 3% 85% 15%

The poll of 887 respondents was taken between 8am Wednesday October 26 and 9.30am Friday October 28. Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, region and party vote 2008 to provide a representative sample of the New Zealand population, the maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is ± 3.3%.

On the web at https://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/161/first-campaign-poll-shows-more-prefer-national-led-government

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