31 October 2011

Election result could be cliff hanger – new Conservatives could play vital role

Act support is sliding and the new Conservative party’s support rising in the latest RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll.

When the results for both decided voters and undecided voters with a preference are considered, the current National-led coalition would have 61 seats in a 122 seat Parliament.

A coalition of Labour, Green, New Zealand First and Mana would also have 61.

If Act fails to win Epsom it will have no seats in the House and a Labour-Green- New Zealand First-Mana arrangement would have 61 seats to a National-led coalition’s 58.

National’s best hope to form a coalition would be for the new Conservative Party to win the Rodney seat, where the party claims its independently-conducted polling in September found its leader, Colin Craig, had 47.2% of the electorate vote, compared with National with 36.8%. National had 51.2% of the party vote in Rodney.

The RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll of 933 registered electors who intend to vote, conducted between Wednesday and Saturday October 26-29, 2011, shows Act party vote support declining in the past week from 3.4% to 1.9%. Conservative party support had risen from 2.1% to 3.4%.

The New Citizens Party has agreed to withdraw from the election, with its Botany candidate Paul Young standing for the Conservatives there. New Citizens last week had 0.4% nationwide party vote support. If this goes to the Conservatives this could further strengthen the Conservatives’ potential role in the next Parliament if it can win Rodney.

At this stage, strategic electorate voting by National supporters for Act candidate John Banks in Epsom and Conservative candidate Colin Craig in Rodney would appear to be best options for those wanting a National-led Government. A National-Act-Conservative-Maori Party-United Future coalition would have 62 seats, other parties 60.

If Act and the Conservatives do not win seats, a National-Maori Party-United Future coalition would have 58 seats to a Labour-Green-New Zealand First-Mana arrangement with 61. The Maori Party announced on October 29 that would not decide on coalition options until after the election.

Most other published polls are for decided voters only expressed as a percentage of 100 and do not include the preferences of undecided voters, or weight for party vote 2008.

The RadioLIVE-Horizon results are for

• Decided voters • Undecided voters with a preference who are • Registered to vote and who • Intend to vote.

The October 26-29 poll finds

• National has 39.3% of registered voters (up 2.3% since October 22, and its highest since 39% support in September and 41.2% in March this year) • Labour 26.3% (+ 0.7%) • Green Party 10.8% (- 0.9%) • New Zealand First 7.8% (+1.5%) • Mana Party 1.3% (-1%) • Act 1.9% (down 1.5% from October 22 and a high of 5.3% in May shortly after Don Brash became leader) • Maori Party 1.9% (+0.2%) • United Future 0.8% (+0.4%) • Conservative Party of New Zealand 3.4% ( up from 2.2% last week, first time measured) • New Citizens 0.4% (0%) • Other parties 0.3 (down from 1.2%)

Some 5.3% remain undecided or have no current party vote preference (down from 6.8%). When undecided voters were asked for their preferences they split slightly more to National than Labour.

Horizon Research says a great deal depends on the support the minor parties attract and the final decisions made by still-undecided voters without a preference, along with the seat contests in Epsom and Rodney. The result could also depend on how many of the 187,000 registered electors who did not vote in 2008 turn out this time. Among this group who have decided to vote this time, Labour is picking up 34.1%, National 20.3% and New Zealand First 15%.

The poll was conducted between October 26 and 29, 2011. Results are weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, personal income, region and party vote 2008 to provide a representative sample of the New Zealand population aged 18+. The maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level is ± 3.2%.

Using the seat calculator published by the Electoral Commission, poll results could result in these scenarios, depending on seats won by Act and the Conservatives and decisions by minor parties on coalition arrangements.

Scenario 1 122 seats Scenario 2 121 seats Seats Seats National 53 Labour 35 National 53 Labour 35 Act 3 Green 14 Act 0 Green 14 Maori P. 4 NZF 10 Maori P. 4 NZF 10 United F. 1 Mana 2 United F. 1 Mana 2 61 61 58 61 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 National 52 Labour 35 National 51 Labour 34 Act 0 Green 14 Act 2 Green 14 Maori P. 4 NZF 10 Maori P. 4 NZF 10 United F. 1 Mana 2 United F. 1 Mana 2 Conserv. 4 Conserv. 4 61 61 62 60

Results of this survey may be used with accreditation to Horizon Research Limited www.horizonpoll.co.nz Story on the bwe at http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/163/election-cliff-hanger-new-conservatives-could-play-vital-role

ENDS

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