First post-debate party vote poll - RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll: National down 3.6%, Labour up 4.1%

HORIZON RESEARCH

RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll: National down 3.6%, Labour up 4.1%

The first nationwide post-leaders’ debate party vote poll shows significant changes in support for National and Labour.

A RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll yesterday of 1,147 registered electors who intend to vote at the November general election, shows:

• National down 3.6% to 35.7% of decided voters and undecided voters with a preference
• Labour up 4.1% to 30.4%
• Green Party up 2.9% to 13.7%
• New Zealand First down 1.3% to 6.5%
• Conservative party up 0.7% to 4.1%
• Act up 0.8% to 2.7%, but with the support of only 43% of those who voted for it in 2008
• Maori Party down 0.7% to 1.2%
• Mana party 0.5% to 1.8%
• United Future up 0.5% to 0.8%

2.3% remain undecided on party vote, down 3.2% since October 31.

The RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll results are weighted by age, gender, region, ethnicity, personal income and party vote 2008 to provide a representative population sample. The maximum margin of error is ± 2.9%.

The poll was conducted between 10am and midnight yesterday (November 1) and post- dates the most recently published one today by Research International for Fairfax. The Fairfax polling was conducted between October 26 and 31 and found a 3.2% fall in National’s vote among decided voters only.

The RadioLIVE-HorizonPoll gives results for people who are registered and intend to vote and combines results for those who have decided which party to support with those undecided voters who express a preference.

It shows Labour making significant gains among the 187,000 registered electors who did not vote at the last election. It captures 52.7% of that group now intending to vote, compared with National’s 20.3%.

The poll also finds a dramatic change in preferences for either a National-led or Labour-led coalition after the election.

Last week there was a 5.5% margin in favour of National.

This is now less than 1%.

While 42% would still prefer a National-led government (42.1% last week), 41.4% now prefer a Labour-led one. The move in support has come from those who previously said they didn’t know whichmain party they wanted to lead a coalition: down from 21.3% to 16.7%.

Horizon Research says the poll emphasises the importance of the performance of potential support parties for National and Labour.

ACT must win Epsom, and the Conservative Party Rodney and United Future Ohariu-Belmont if National is to govern again.

Both main parties will need an arrangement with New Zealander First to govern. Winston Peter’s Party has had over 5% support in the HorizonPoll since last year and is within the margin of error or getting over or falling short of the 5% threshold to claim up to 8 or 9 seats in the next Parliament.

Methodology:

Horizon research is scientifically conducted using a weighted random selection of members of its nationwide HorizonPoll panel, 95% of whom recruited by e-mail invitation to match the New Zealand population at the 2006 census. Respondent samples are then further weighted to ensure a representative population sample. Party vote results are for decided voters plus undecided voters with a preference all of whom are registered and intending to vote.

Results of this survey may be used with accreditation to Horizon Research Limited http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz

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