IPREDICT LTD
MEDIA STATEMENT
Tuesday 27 March 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
www.ipredict.co.nz



Stocks on London Mayoral Election Launched

The 6000 registered traders on New Zealand’s online predictions market, iPredict – plus anyone else who signs up for free to become a trader at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=register – can now trade contracts forecasting the results of the London Mayoral Election scheduled for 4 May 2012

The race is between Conservative incumbent Boris Johnson, former Labour Mayor Ken Livingstone, Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick and a range of other candidates representing everyone from the environmentalist Green Party, to the anti-immigration British National Party, to the legendary Official Monster Raving Loony Party.
To forecast the results of the election, a new iPredict category, focussed exclusively on the London mayoral race, has been launched at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=538.

Three bundles of contracts have been launched within the category, which will provide what iPredict is confident will be the world’s most accurate forecasts of the share of first choice votes to be won by major candidates, the share of total final votes to be won by major candidates and the ultimate winner.

The first bundle asks what share of first choice votes will be won by Mr Johnson, Mr Livingstone, Mr Paddick and all others. These can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=539 and very early low-volume trading suggests that Mr Johnson will win 48.3% of first choices, Mr Livingstone 41.7%, Mr Paddick 6.1% and all others 3.7%.

The second bundle concerns final vote shares and can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=542. These stocks ask what share of the vote candidates will win after second preferences are allocated and early low-volume trading suggests the result will be 51.7% for Mr Johnson and 48.3% for Mr Livingstone. Should one candidate receive 50% or more of first choices, so that second preferences do not need to be allocated, the final vote stocks will close at the same price as the first choice stocks.

The third bundle asks who will win the election and can be traded at https://www.ipredictco.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=540. Early trading gives Mr Johnson an 80.2% probability of victory.

iPredict advises traders who are unfamiliar with London’s electoral system to read the information at http://www.londonelects.org.uk before trading.
ENDS

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