IPREDICT LTD
MEDIA STATEMENT
Wednesday 2 May 2012
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
www.iPredict.co.nz
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Banks and Williamson to be stood down in next fortnight

Act Leader and Epsom MP John Banks, and his colleague National MP Maurice Williamson, are both expected to be stood down as ministers by 15 May, with Mr Banks picked to be sacked or resign altogether before Budget Day on 24 May, according to the 6800 registered traders on www.iPredict.co.nz.

The New Zealand online predictions market is already offering 20 stocks on issues related to the growing scandal involving political donations from Megaupload founder Kim Dotcom, who is facing extradition to the United States on racketeering, money laundering and copyright charges. Other stocks will be added as events unfold.

The stocks can be traded at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=757 by any of iPredict’s existing traders or anyone else who signs up for free at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=register.

According to prices at 1pm today, there is a 62% probability Mr Banks will stand down as a minister before Tuesday 15 May and a 56% probability for Mr Williamson.

Their stand-downs may begin earlier, with a 52% probability Mr Banks will stand down before Tuesday 8 May and a 49% probability that Mr Williamson will. Stocks are also available asking whether the two will stand down today.

Looking further ahead, Mr Banks appears to be at greater risk than Mr Williamson.

While there is only a 47% probability Mr Williamson will cease being a minister by Budget Day on 24 May, iPredict traders currently believe there is a 63% probability Mr Banks will not survive that long.

Worse for Mr Banks, traders believe there is a 60% probability of a by-election in his Epsom electorate before the next General Election, with trading just started on whether or not the Epsom by-election will happen this year.

The Act Party is expected to be below 1% in the next TVNZ poll, has just a 53% chance of being above 0.2% in the next TV3 poll, and only a 65% chance of being reported as having any support in the next Roy Morgan poll.

Mr Banks has just a 26% probability of surviving as Act Party Leader through to the next General Election, and the party itself is not expected to be returned to Parliament, with only a 34% probability it will win an electorate seat and a forecast party vote of just 1.5%.

Despite these political consequences, iPredict traders are picking Mr Banks will escape being charged by the police, with just a 43% probability he will be charged over donations from Mr Dotcom before 1 May 2013 and only a 34% probability he will be charged over donations from Auckland casino operator SkyCity.

If Mr Banks does not leave Parliament, there is only a 24% probability he will recuse himself from parliamentary votes on gambling or matters affecting SkyCity which will be welcome news for Prime Minister John Key who may need Mr Banks’ vote to pass legislation to allow the construction of a new National Convention Centre by the company.

Also good news for Mr Key’s National-led Government is that the scandal appears unlikely to have any impact on this year’s Budget nor does it risk causing a General Election in 2012.
ENDS

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