iPredict Ltd: New stocks available on unfolding ACC scandal

11 June 2012

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• Judge and Stewart appear safe as ACC Chair and CEO
• Other departures from ACC more likely
• Smith set to return as Climate Change and Environment Minister
• No prime ministerial inquiry
• Beehive, but not Collins, suspected of being source of Boag email leak

ACC Chairman John Judge and Chief Executive Ralph Stewart appear safe until at least the end of this week but the short-term future may not be as rosy for ACC medical advisor Anthony Burgess nor managers Hans Verberne and Phillip Murch, initial trading on New Zealand’s online predictions market, iPredict, suggests.

New stocks on the future of the five ACC officials were launched last night after TV3’s 60 Minutes broadcast new information on the scandal which has already cost former ACC Minister Nick Smith his job.

The new stocks, together with others that have previously been launched on the scandal, can be found at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=704. They can be traded by any of iPredict’s 6,900 registered traders plus anyone else who signs up for free at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=register.

Since the new stocks were launched last night, very early trading suggests just a 35% probability of an announcement by the end of the week that Mr Judge is leaving his job and just a 25% probability of an announcement that Mr Stewart will depart.

The situation is not as positive for Dr Burgess, Mr Murch and Mr Verberne, however, with very early initial trading suggesting a 53% probability of an announcement by week’s end that they have or will resign, be sacked or be temporarily suspended.

Meanwhile, Dr Smith, the architect of the National-led Government’s Emissions Trading Scheme, looks set for a return to the Cabinet and to the Climate Change and Environment portfolios before the end of the year. Last week, Prime Minister John Key said Dr Smith was “very capable so we miss him; he's by far our most experienced person when it comes to the environment” while Dr Smith has also been reported of hinting of a return.

iPredict traders believe there is an 80% probability Dr Smith will be re-appointed as a minister by the end of the year, with a 73% probability he will be re-appointed Climate Change Minister and a 65% probability he will be re-appointed Environment Minister. There is only a 48% probability he will also get his local government portfolio back.

While Mr Key is expected to act on Dr Smith’s re-appointment, there is only an 18% probability he will order a wide-ranging inquiry into the various privacy breaches, leaks and associated matters involving ACC, Bronwyn Pullar, Michelle Boag, Dr Smith and/or new ACC Minister Judith Collins.

This may or may not be related to the market indicating a 42% probability that the most likely source of the leak of Ms Boag’s email to Ms Collins was a Beehive staffer.

Ms Collins, who is suing Labour MPs Andrew Little and Trevor Mallard after they suggested she might have leaked the email, appears to be believed by the market, which indicates just a 17% probability she was responsible for the leak.

ENDS

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