IPREDICT LTD

NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UPDATE

Monday 17 November 2014

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

www.ipredict.co.nz

LITTLE NOW OVERWHELMINGLY FAVOURED TO BE NEXT LABOUR LEADER BUT DEPUTY RACE WIDE OPEN

There is now nearly a 90% probability Andrew Little will be elected leader of the New Zealand Labour Party tomorrow but less clarity than ever about who will be his deputy, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Most economic forecasts are steady this week with a small increase in interest rate expectations and a small improvement in the fiscal forecast for 2014/15. John Key is expected to remain National Party leader until 2017 and his party is expected to win the election that year. If there is a vacancy within National, Paula Bennett is favoured to succeed Mr Key.

Politics:

• Next Labour Leader expected to be:

o Andrew Little 87% probability (up from 71% probability last week)

o Grant Robertson 11% probability (down from 24% last week)

o David Parker 2% probability (down from 5% last week)

o Nanaia Mahuta 0% probability (steady compared with last week)

• Next Labour Deputy Leader expected to be:

o Jacinda Ardern 28% probability (down from 36% last week)

o Nanaia Mahuta 16% probability (steady compared with last week)

o Grant Robertson 9% probability (up from 5% last week)

o Annette King 6% probability (down from 8% last week)

o David Parker 5% probability (up from 4% last week)

o David Shearer 3% probability (down from 5% last week)

o Andrew Little 2% probability (down from 7% last week)

o Stuart Nash 2% probability (down from 4% last week)

o Other 29% probability (up from 16% last week)

• John Key expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (73% probability, up from 72%) and has a 46% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (steady compared with last week)

• Paula Bennett favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (28%, down from 29% last week), followed by Steven Joyce (26% probability, down from 27%), Jonathan Coleman (10%, up from 8%) and Simon Bridges (8%, steady)

• Next election expected in 2017 (89% probability, down from 92% last week)

• National expected to win 2017 General Election (53% probability, up from 52% last week)

Economics:

• Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.8% of GDP in the September quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 0.8% in the December quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.0% in the March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.1% in the June 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.3% in the December quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Unemployment stocks for 2015 will be launched in the near future

• Current account deficit expected to be 2.6% of GDP in the September quarter (steady compared with last week) and 3.8% of GDP in the December quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Annual inflation expected to be:

o 1.1% to end of December quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.4% to end of March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.8% to end of June 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 2.1% to end of September 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.502% on 11 December (up from 3.499% last week)

o 3.503% on 29 January (up from 3.501% last week)

o 3.518% on 12 March (up from 3.514% last week)

o 3.545% on 30 April (down from 3.549% last week)

o 3.598% on 11 June (up from 3.597% last week)

o 3.654% on 23 July (up from 3.653% last week)

o 3.711% on 10 September (up from 3.710% last week)

o OCR stocks out to June 2016 will be launched in the near future

• Fiscal balance expected to be:

o 0.02% of GDP in 2014/15 (up from -0.02% last week)

o 0.95% of GDP in 2015/16 (steady)

o 1.98% of GDP in 2016/17 (steady)

o 2.37% of GDP in 2017/18 (steady)

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

• The Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 23% probability it will be, steady compared with last week)

• Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General have fallen to 20% probability, down from 25% last week

• There is a 19% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week

Notes:

• iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found atwww.ipredict.co.nz.

• The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 12.39 pm today.

ENDS

© Scoop Media