IPREDICT LTD

NEW ZEALAND WEEKLY ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UPDATE

Wednesday 26 November 2014

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

www.ipredict.co.nz

SIS SCANDAL LEAVES KEY UNSCATHED

Prime Minister John Key has been almost entirely unscathed by the SIS scandal, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. The probability Mr Key will remain leader of the National Party until at least the end of 2016 is unchanged and the probability National will lead the next government is down just 1% to 52%. Judith Collins is expected to return to Mr Key’s Cabinet before the next election. Economic forecasts are broadly unchanged.

Politics:

• As overwhelmingly forecast by iPredict, Andrew Little was elected leader of the Labour Party last Thursday. Stocks on how long Mr Little will remain in the job will be launched in the near future.

• John Key is expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (73% probability, steady compared with last week) and has a 47% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (up from 46% last week)

• Steven Joyce is again favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (26%, steady compared with last week), followed by Paula Bennett (25% probability, down from 28%), Jonathan Coleman (10%, steady) and Simon Bridges (8%, steady)

• Next election expected in 2017 (93% probability, up from 89% last week)

• Judith Collins expected to be appointed to Cabinet before next election (65% probability)

• National expected to win 2017 General Election (52% probability, down from 53% last week)

Economics:

• Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.8% of GDP in the September quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 0.8% in the December quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.0% in the March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.1% in the June 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.3% in the December quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Unemployment stocks for 2015 will be launched in the near future

• Current account deficit expected to be 2.4% of GDP in the September quarter (down from 2.6% last week) and 3.8% of GDP in the December quarter (steady)

• Annual inflation expected to be:

o 1.1% to end of December quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.4% to end of March 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 1.7% to end of June 2015 quarter (down from 1.8% last week)

o 2.1% to end of September 2015 quarter (steady compared with last week)

• Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.504% on 11 December (up from 3.502% last week)

o 3.506% on 29 January (up from 3.503% last week)

o 3.520% on 12 March (up from 3.518% last week)

o 3.546% on 30 April (up from 3.545% last week)

o 3.599% on 11 June (up from 3.598% last week)

o 3.655% on 23 July (up from 3.654% last week)

o 3.712% on 10 September (up from 3.711% last week)

o 3.769% on 29 October (new stocks)

o 3.821% on 10 December 2015 (new stocks)

o OCR stocks out to June 2016 will be launched in the near future

• Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.03% of GDP in 2014/15 (down from +0.02% last week)

o 0.95% of GDP in 2015/16 (steady)

o 1.98% of GDP in 2016/17 (steady)

o 2.37% of GDP in 2017/18 (steady)

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

• The Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 29% probability it will be, up from 23% last week)

• Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General have are 20% (steady compared with last week)

• There is a 19% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)

Notes:

• iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found atwww.ipredict.co.nz.

• The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 12.39 pm today.

ENDS

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