iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update

Campbell Live Doomed

TV3’s Campbell Live appears doomed, with a 77% probability it will be cancelled before 1 January 2016, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. John Key’s position as leader of the National Party and his party’s chances of winning a fourth term with the support of NZ First have edged up, while Labour leader Andrew Little’s political prospects have edged down. Kevin Hague remains strongly favoured to be the next male co-leader of the Green Party. The Official Cash Rate is expected to be cut by the end of the year while the fiscal deficit in 2014/15 is now expected to be 0.28% of GDP. In the United States, Hillary Clinton has an 87% probability of being the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 and a 52% probability of being the next president.

New Zealand Politics:

• John Key is expected to remain National leader until at least the end of 2016 (90% probability, up from 85% last week) but has just a 37% probability of remaining National leader until at least the end of 2017 (up from 25% last week). Mr Key has a 73% probability of being National leader on Nomination Day before the next General Election (steady compared with last week)

• Andrew Little is expected to remain Labour leader until at least the end of 2016 (80% probability, down from 95% last week) and has a 63% probability of remaining Labour leader until the end of 2017 (down from 68% last week). Mr Little has a 73% probability of being Labour leader on Nomination Day before the next General Election (down from 90% last week)

• Paula Bennett remains the clear favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises (44%, up from 37% last week), followed by Steven Joyce (12%, up from 10%) and Amy Adams (10%, up from 7%)

• Stocks on who is favoured to become Labour Party leader if a vacancy arises will be launched in the near future

• Kevin Hague remains strongly expected to be the next co-leader of the Green Party (79% probability, down from 80% last week), followed by James Shaw on 21% (up from 18%)

• Judith Collins is expected to be appointed to Cabinet before next election (53% probability she will be, up from 49% last week)

• Tim Groser is expected to be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States (91% probability, up from 85% last week) and Maureen Pugh is expected to become eligible to be a list MP before the next election (95% probability, up from 73% last week)

• Phil Goff is expected to stand for the Auckland mayoralty (91% probability, new stock)

• Next election expected in 2017 (92% probability, steady compared with last week) with a turnout of 75% (steady)

• Forecast party vote shares at next election:

o National 43.8% (up from 43.7% last week)

o Labour 33.1% (steady)

o Greens 10.8% (down from 10.9%)

o NZ First 7.4% (up from 7.3%)

o Others 4.8% (down from 5.1%)

• NZ First has a 68% probability of holding the balance of power after the next election (steady compared with last week). If NZ First does hold the balance of power, there is a 52% probability it will back National on confidence and supply (up from 49% last week), a 32% probability it will back Labour on confidence and supply (steady) and a 16% probability it would sit on the crossbenches (down from 19%)

• National narrowly expected to form a government after 2017 General Election (54% probability, steady compared with last week)

• David Carter is expected to be New Zealand’s next High Commissioner to the United Kingdom (79% probability) and Gerry Brownlee has a 48% probability of being the next New Zealand Speaker

• Almost no chance Wellington councils will be amalgamated by end of 2015 (only 5% probability they will be, steady compared with last week)

New Zealand Business & Economics:

• Fruit-fly outbreak expected to be contained with fewer than 20 Queensland fruit-flies expected to be found in New Zealand as part of current outbreak (89% probability, up from 85% last week)

• New Zealand dollar expected to reach parity with Australian dollar by the end of 2015 (79% probability, up from 73% last week), with a 69% probability if will do so before July 2015 (up from 62% probability last week)

• Quarterly GDP growth expected to be:

o 0.76% in the March quarter

o 0.65% in the June quarter

o 0.86% in the September quarter

o 0.85% in the December quarter

• Annual growth expected to be 3.15% in the 2015 calendar year

• Unemployment expected to be:

o 5.42% in the March quarter (up from 5.41% last week)

o 5.29% in the June quarter (steady)

o 5.25% in the September quarter (steady)

o 5.37% in the December quarter (up from 5.30%)

• New Zealand gender pay gap expected to be 9.95% in 2014/15

• Current account deficit expected to be:

o 3.61% of GDP in the March quarter (steady compared with last week)

o 3.56% in the June quarter (steady)

o 3.39% in the September quarter (steady)

o 3.49% in the December quarter (new stocks)

• Annual inflation expected to be:

o 0.22% to end of March 2015 quarter (down from 0.24% last week)

o 0.42% to end of June 2015 quarter (up from 0.40%)

o 0.61% to end of September 2015 quarter (up from 0.59%)

o 1.04% to end of December 2015 quarter (down from 1.05%)

• Official Cash Rate priced to be:

o 3.494% on 30 April (up from 3.480% last week)

o 3.481% on 11 June (up from 3.452% last week)

o 3.456% on 23 July (up from 3.427%)

o 3.406% on 10 September (up from 3.377%)

o 3.387% on 29 October (up from 3.358%)

o 3.366% on 10 December (up from 3.329%)

o 3.356% on 28 January 2016 (up from 3.319%)

o 3.354% on 10 March 2016 (up from 3.316%)

o 3.344% on 28 April 2016 (up from 3.306%)

o 3.331% on 9 June 2016 (up from 3.296%)

• This implies the OCR is more likely than not to be cut on 10 December 2015 to 3.25% (compared with 29 October 2015 last week) and to remain at that rate until at least 9 June 2016 (steady)

• 6% probability of a fiscal surplus in 2014/15 (down from 23% last week)

• Fiscal balance expected to be:

o -0.28% of GDP in 2014/15 (down from -0.19% last week)

o 0.72% of GDP in 2015/16 (down from 0.80%)

o 1.98% of GDP in 2016/17 (steady)

o 2.32% of GDP in 2017/18 (steady)

• Fonterra’s final payout (before retentions) expected to be:

o $4.71 in 2014/15 (steady compared with last week)

o $5.40 in 2015/16 (down from $5.62)

o $6.16 in 2016/17 (down from $6.43)

• Campbell Live expected to be cancelled this year (77% probability, new stock)

• Stocks on tourism arrivals and gender and ethnic pay gaps are now available for trading.

Foreign Affairs/Constitution:

• Next UK Parliament expected to consist of:

o Conservatives 43.0% of seats in the House of Commons (down from 43.2% last week)

o Labour 40.3% of seats (up from 40.2%)

o Nationalist parties 7.6% of seats (up from 7.5%)

o Liberal Democrats 4.1% of seats (steady)

o UKIP and similar 1.0% of seats (steady)

o Unionist parties 1.0% of seats (steady

o Green and similar 1.0% of seats (steady)

o Independents and Speaker 1.0% of seats (steady)

o All others 1.0% of seats (steady)

• David Cameron expected to be prime minister after next UK election (57% probability, steady compared with last week)

• Boris Johnson expected to be elected to UK House of Commons this year (99% probability, steady compared with last week)

• Socialist Workers’ Party expected to defeat People’s Party in next Spanish election (73% probability, steady compared with last week)

• All Eurozone countries, including Greece, expected to remain in Euro in 2015 (20% probability of an announcement of a departure this year, steady compared with last week)

• Tony Abbott expected to remain leader of the Australian Liberal Party until 1 July 2015 (only 5% probability of departing before then, down from 18% last week) but be replaced as leader of the Australian Liberal Party by nomination day (50% probability Malcolm Turnbull will be leader on that day, steady compared with last week)

• Bill Shorten expected to be Labor leader at next Australian Federal election (89% probability, up from 86% last week)

• Liberals marginally ahead of Labor for next Australian Federal election in 2016 (53% probability of Liberal win, steady compared with last week)

• Hillary Clinton is favoured to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for US president in 2016 and to be elected to that office (52% probability, up from 50% last week). Jeb Bush has a 40% probability of being the Republican nominee up from 39% last week) followed by Scott Walker (21% probability, steady) and Rand Paul (15% probability, down from 18%)

• There is a 35% probability New Zealand will sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership this year (down from 38% last week), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not expected to be ratified by the US Congress before 1 July 2017 (only 29% probability it will be, steady)

• Helen Clark’s prospects of being the next UN Secretary General are 26% (steady compared with last week)

• There is a 10% probability New Zealand will become a republic by 2020 (steady compared with last week)

• Ireland to vote in favour of same-sex marriage before July 2015 (95% probability, steady compared with last week)

• There is a 17% probability Kim Jong-Un will cease being leader of North Korea before 2017 (steady compared with last week)

Notes:

• iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz.

• The weekly economic and political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each week. This week’s was taken at 2.02 pm today.

ENDS

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