State of the Parties - What Labour Must Do

INSIGHTS ABOUT THE NEWS - The forthcoming election is already being billed as the tightest race in recent NZ history. Polls show National virtually neck and neck with the Labour-Green combo. To have the best chance of forming the next Govt, Labour has to lift its rating 5 or 6 points to the mid-30s, with the Greens adding perhaps 14-15% of the total vote.

This can be done if Labour succeeds in presenting the right mix of policies and personalities. Under Andrew Little’s leadership it has been evolving a strategy to capture a greater share of the party vote than it did under the unlamented David Cunliffe. Promoting Jacinda Ardern to deputy leader is key to presenting Labour’s “face” to voters.

Polls show the party’s support edging up after Ardern stepped into the deputy’s role. It’s her job to win back the once staunch Labour strongholds in Auckland which gave National such substantial majorities on the party vote in 2014. She appeals to young voters, and, more importantly to women who were drawn to vote National by John Key’s perpetually sunny optimism. A Robertson/Ardern team might have been an even better team to achieve this objective - but this was squashed by the unions. As Ardern's popularity surges ahead of Little’s this will provide further challenges for the party.

National has stolen a march on Labour by moving into what once was Labour’s preserve, with socially liberal policies which followed John Key’s deconstruction of political ideology. The latest initiatives with support for middle and low-income groups, particularly in the landmark pay equity decision for carers, and looming tax threshold changes, are hard to counter. National has also succeeded in blunting other sensitive issues (think abortion/pro-life, superannuation, addressing the infrastructure deficit, its refusal to inquire into the SAS). This has left only a narrow range of issues for Labour to campaign on.

Labour has focused keeping “on message” with issues it sees as National’s vulnerable points: immigration, housing affordability and inequality. But the policy detail to address these issues has been less convincing. The leadership team along with Grant Robertson, Phil Twyford and David Parker must drive the background work to get the balance of message and detail right. Labour must also mesh its policies with the Greens – differences are already creating some friction, and will be gleefully exploited by opponents.

Will stability and unity be maintained? After all, NZers have shown they place a high priority on stability when they go to the ballot box. Labour has self-destructed in its last two election campaigns with ill-discipline and infighting. For the past two years the backroom efforts led by former deputy leader Annette King have largely succeeded in containing caucus pressures. But the facade of unity couldn’t be sustained as Labour shaped its list rankings, leading to a disgruntled Sue Moroney pulling out of standing again, and Willie Jackson throwing a tantrum after being ranked 21 against Little’s earlier indication he would highly ranked.

At the last election, National convinced voters a Labour-led Govt would make the country like a disorganised rowing boat being pulled in different directions. This remains an issue. The message battle to win is whether individual voters can be led to believe they will be better off under a Labour coalition rather than National’s. Little’s appearance as defendant in a trial over alleged defamation against hotelier Earl Hagaman, not for the first time, put a major question mark against his judgment.

Strong leadership, cohesive policy and caucus unity are all essential to the Opposition parties’ chances of forming the next Govt – but the decisive factor may prove to be a developing allergy within the electorate towards the idea of a fourth term under a National-led govt. It’s something PM Bill English and his refreshed Cabinet, with a surge of policy announcements, are already counter-attacking.

Trans Tasman will have more on the Labour Party and their policies
after the May 13-14 Conference at Te Papa

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