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A Twist in Time Puts Ardern In Top Job Without Kerfuffle
A Twist in Time Puts Ardern In Top Job Without Kerfuffle
INSIGHTS ABOUT THE NEWS -
It’s funny how fate works. Had Andrew Little resigned
three months before the general election on Sept 23 - about
a month earlier than he did - the Labour constitution
outlines the process of electing a new Labour leader. It
would have involved not only the party caucus, but also
branch and union representatives. It could have been
drawn-out and harmed the party. Instead, things changed
within 24 hours. Because it was less than three months to
the election, only the caucus voted on Tuesday morning. The
result was a smooth transition with Jacinda Ardern voted
leader and Kelvin Davis her deputy. As reported in
today's edition of Trans Tasman Political Alert, "the Govt
now has a real battle on its hands. Ardern’s sudden
accession to the Labour leadership has transformed the
political landscape. She may be the youngest Labour leader
yet, but she generates excitement. Her caucus elected her
unanimously, even though those who saw themselves as future
leaders were among them. She presents brilliantly on
television, where Little so singularly handicapped himself
out of the race. Yet she is virtually untested in a
serious leadership role. She could not win Auckland Central
(a previous Labour seat) in 2011 or 2014. Will she project a
halo effect into those electorates where Labour voters have
drifted off to the Greens or NZ First?
The party she
leads has traumatised itself as a result of, as one critic
put it, strategic ineptitude, policy torpor and
organisational decay. She has little time to revitalise the
team behind her or reshape the policy she inherits from
Little. It’s possible she may duplicate the “Corbyn
effect,” but then UK Labour still finished second. She
is handicapped, too, by running in tandem with the Greens
who have muscled into Labour territory on social justice.
And the electorate could be wary of how Winston Peters might
have to be brought into a coalition to form a Govt. Some
commentators are convinced Peters as the most experienced
(and a former deputy PM) would demand the top job.
Meanwhile, National, which appeared to be coasting
towards a fourth term, has been galvanised by the change. It
must shed any complacency in its ranks, rally its support
base, and and some new way of underlining the importance of
stability for the country. Ministers have been wheeling
out policy announcements like that on the ending of
decile-related education funding this week, but some
authorities believe if it is to avoid being stigmatised as
“tired” after nine years in Govt, it has to present
fresh and compelling ideas to guarantee a fourth term."
Another time factor which will influence Arden’s path
forward will be how quickly she can come up with credible
new policies to raise Labour’s vote.
ENDS
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