State Of The Parties: Minor Parties Feel The Pinch As MPP Becomes More Like First Past the Post After Ardern’s Ascension

INSIGHTS ABOUT THE NEWS - The momentum generated by Jacinda Ardern’s elevation to the Labour leadership has the largest parties going head-to-head. This has squeezed the minor parties as they bid to enter Parliament and they are feeling the pressure. Here's what the Trans TasmanEditors have to say about the minor parties.

Greens – The Greens have found the political sands can shift very quickly. A few short weeks ago their most ardent supporters were openly speculating at surpassing NZ First and even parity with Labour. Now the cannibalisation of votes has been reversed.

Soft Labour voters have gone back to the fold and the Greens are staring at potentially falling into the political abyss by not making the 5% support threshold. They will be hoping for the polls to at least stabilise or they risk a vicious circle effect with supporters not willing to waste their vote.

They will be hoping Labour gives them some room to be heard in the coming weeks, but this looks unlikely.

NZ First – The party faces similar problems to Greens but the squeeze is coming from National. NZ First has always hoped to do well in the regional centres and in the rural vote.

However, farmers and the productive sector now hold genuine fears about what a Labour-led Govt would mean for their livelihoods and so do the economies they support.

This could weigh on NZ First as wavering National voters shore up the current Govt and fear NZ First could support Labour. Winston Peters knows the signs are pointing to him deciding who forms the next Govt.

Polling in the Whangarei electorate shows Shane Jones has little chance of winning, but it appears the Super uproar around Peters is not the fiasco some thought it would be.

Maori Party – All the party’s energy and resources must go into holding or winning a Maori electorate seat and the hope the party vote rises slightly. It could work with National or Labour*.

However, it seems unlikely the two major parties will be able to form a Govt solely with it. NZ First has so many “bottom lines” diametrically opposed to the Maori Party it seems unlikely they could work together.

ACT – Similar to the Maori Party, ACT’s sole MP, David Seymour, must win Epsom and hope ACT’s party votes rises to bring in an extra MP or two. Lose Epsom and the party will probably cease to exist as a viable entity. ACT also needs National’s support to increase to have any role in Govt.

The Opportunities Party – Money, “bold” policy and swaggering boorish behaviour may be enough to get it 5% support. As they say in the racing world – a long shot.

United Future – Since the departure of Peter Dunne totally irrelevant.

Mana – Still relies on Hone Harawira taking an unlikely victory in the north.

* If Labour lets it.

For analysis and further updates see this week’s edition of the Trans Tasman Political Alert

ENDS

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