First up – Te Paati Māori. After a term out of parliament, a new team led by John Tamihere and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer are hoping to wrest back the Māori seats from Labour, and to once again be an independent voice for Māori at the tēpū. So how do the policies stack up? Te Matapihi provides a perspective.

The Māori Party have a strong history championing Māori housing, with Dame Tariana Turia and former-MP Te Ururoa Flavell both leaving formidable legacies. Co-leader John Tamihere has publicly stated that housing is the number one issue for Māori. With a new team at the helm and a fresh look, will the Māori party be able to deliver?

Tamihere has political experience as a former Labour MP, and a track record for delivery in the private sector as the CEO of Waipareira Trust. Māori Party co-leader John Tamihere launched the Māori party housing policy, Oranga Tangata | Whānau Build on the 24th of September at a Waterview site, where Te Whānau Waipareira have recently completed the building of 120 social housing units. Tamihere has proven that he is qualified, and up to the the task. 

This election, the Māori Party have stepped out an 8-point plan to address the housing crisis, and create more equitable outcomes for whānau Māori.

The Māori Party have pledged to:

1. Build 2000 houses on ancestral Māori land within the next 2 years.
2. Ensure fifty percent of all new social housing will be allocated to Māori.
3. Ensure immigration to New Zealand stops until supply is able to meet demand.
4. Stop all sales of freehold land to offshore foreign interests.
5. Place a 2% tax on the capital value of vacant houses if they remain unoccupied for 3 months or longer in any one year.
6. Ensure the Overseas Investment Act applies to all residential housing purchases.
7. Add a Capital Gains Tax on all property set at 2% of the appreciation per annum (other than on the whānau home).
8. Ensure the Government re-enter the housing market to develop and build state housing stock.

Oranga Tangata | Whānau First has a number of policies under the Iwi/Māori Build subheading, including:

• Removal of legal barriers to build on papakāinga and increas the building partnerships amongst Māori, hapū and whānau collectives.
• 25% of the total government housing budget to be allocated towards Māori and include Māori trade trainees and Māori-owned businesses, providers and services.
• 25% of all government funding to be allocated towards environmentally friendly housing initiatives.

 The Oranga Whenua | Climate Change policy also has a number of policies relating to papakāinga:

• Establish dedicated $1bn Pūngao Auaha fund for Māori-owned community energy projects and solar panel and insulation instillations on marae, kura, homes and papakāinga housing developments
• Establish a fund to support whānau, hapū and iwi with adaptation such as shifting papakāinga under managed retreat policies

Table 1. Māori Party’s Housing Policies – Summary

We’ll be limiting our discussion to three key policies, which we think have the potential to make a difference for Māori. These are:

1. Build 2000 house on ancestral Māori land in the next 2 years
2. Ensure fifty percent of all new social housing will be allocated to Māori.
3. Ensure immigration to New Zealand stops until supply is able to meet demand.

For each of the selected policies, Te Matapihi have asked ourselves two questions – will it work? And will it make a difference for Māori?

1. Build 2000 houses on ancestral Māori land

Developing whenua Māori for papakāinga and reinstating ancestral kāinga is a long-held aspiration for many whānau and hapū Māori. The Māori land base (defined as Māori freehold land under Te Ture Whenua Māori Act 1993) makes up approximately 5% of the overall New Zealand landmass. The barrier to developing land for papakāinga are well-documented, and include planning provisions, landlocked land (no legal access), access to finance, as well as the challenges associated with collective decision-making, succession, and issues created by historic legislation.

The Māori Party policy pledges to build 2000 houses on ancestral Māori land within two years – an ambitious target by any measure.

Will it work?

Short answer – no.

Access to finance is a peristent issue. Whānau and hapū seeking to develop land for housing generally have two finance options available to them – the Māori Housing Fund, administered by the Māori Housing Network Te Puni Kōkiri, and the Kāinga Whenua loan, administered by Kiwibank and underwritter by Kāinga Ora. The Vote Māori Development budget saw just under $37 million allocated to Māori Housing in 2019/20 and just under $34 million budgeted for the 2020/21 financial year.

Although 2019/20 statistics are yet to be released, the Te Pōti Whanaketanga Māori: Vote Māori Development report for 2018/19 indicates that 34 affordable rental homes were built on whenua Māori, with infrastructure provided for 90 new home sites on Māori land. The vast majority of the just under $31 million tagged for housing outcomes in that financial year was allocated to home repairs, training, feasibility / technical planning, and financial capability workshops.

According to the Kāinga Ora 2018/19 annual report, to date 42 Kāinga Whenua loans have been settled, and at the time of annual reporting, another 9 were in the process of being drawn down, and another five had been pre-approved. Although it reads like an annual total, the number is cumulative (since the programme’s inception in 2009), and represents an increase of five, from 37 in 2017/18 to 42 in the 2018/19 financial year. It’s unclear whether these loans are individual (for a single dwelling) or collective (for multiple dwellings), but regardless, it represents a very small number of houses being built using the Kāinga Whenua loan.

The amount proposed – $600M – amounts to approximately $300,000 per home, excluding the cost of land. According to Stats NZ building consent data for 2020 (Table: Building consents by territorial authority [monthly], Jan – September 2020, residential buildings, new build only), the average cost per unit of new residential construction across New Zealand is $371,626, with an average floor area of 158m2. The average cost per m2 is $2,352. This varies, of course, varies region by region, but on balance an average of $300,000 per home (for a floor area of approx 130m2) seems achievable.

Over the past 12 months (September 2019 to August 2020), 37,467 consents for new residential units were issued nationwide. Assuming 1000 units will be built per year under the Māori party policy, this would represents 2.67% of all consents. At 1000 dwellings per year (assuming planning and consents), this increase the current number of new houses built on whenua Māori annually by  2500% (assuming approximately 40 homes are currently built on whenua Māori each year).

The goal of building 2000 houses on whenua Māori within 2 years is a worthy goal, but the target is unrealistic. Even with the additional funding proposed, the timeframe is unachievable. The commercial development process from concept to completion generally takes 2-3 years. The nature of collective decision-making relating to whenua Māori, as well as the land tenure and governance issues mean it can take much longer to complete development projects.

Will it make a difference for Māori?

The extra resourcing – estimated at $600M will be a welcome addition to the Māori housing pūtea bucket. Over a more realistic timeframe, and with a commitment to removing the structural barriers to developing whenua Māori for papakāinga, this could make a real difference to whānau Māori over the long term. It will take time to build a pipeline of viable projects, as well as continued advocacy by the Māori Party and others to remove the structural barriers to development on whenua Māori.

2. Ensure fifty percent of all new social housing will be allocated to Māori

Accordingly the latest Ministry of Social Development statistics, as at 30 June 2020, Māori make up 9,162 of 18,520 applicants on the Housing Register, or roughly 50%. The Māori Party policy advocates for an allocation system based on the demographics of the social housing register, which would see 50% of all social housing allocated to Māori.

Will it work?

When we look at the data on the housing register, we can see that although the housing register has increased 4-5 times since June 2016 (3877 at June 2016, to 18520 in June 2020), the demographics of applicants has not changed substantively. There has been a slight decrease in NZ European and Pasifika applicants, and an increase by 7 percentage points for Māori applicants (from 42.5% to 49.5%).

Chart 1. Housing register by applicant demographics

Chart 2. Housing register by applicant demographics as a percentage of overall

It’s unclear whether non-Māori are being housed by Kāinga Ora (formerly HNZC) and Community Housing Providers at greater rates than Māori. Public housing quarterly reports, published by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development (formerly by the Ministry of Social Development) show the number of people housed per quarter, but do not include a breakdown by demographic. Without this data, it’s difficult to determine whether policy change is, in fact, required, or whether the current approach taken by the Ministry of Social Development, Kāinga Ora, and Community Housing Providers is sufficient.

Currently, a short list of up to 30 suitable applicants is generated by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development based on the property information and any preferred tenant characteristics (specified by the provider), such as gender, age or wraparound service. Additionally, if the provider has specified a specific ‘identified suitable client’ who is on the register, that person will also be listed. The provider is able to select a preferred applicant from the short list generated. This list can be refreshed a number of times until a suitable applicant is identified.

Will it make a difference for Māori?

Debatable. This policy – if implementable – may make a small difference, but it is unlikely to be substantive.

Ethnicity is not currently available as part of the preferred tenant characteristics, and selection by ethnicity may represent a breach of Humans Rights Act 1993 and the Residential Tenancies Act 1986. Māori community housing providers are currently able to positively discriminate in favour of their own preferred tenants through ‘identified suitable client’ pathway described above. 

3. Ensure immigration to New Zealand stops until supply is able to meet demand

This policy focuses on targeting immigration as a demand-side driver of housing unaffordability. It is complemented by two further related policies – stopping all sales of freehold land to offshore foreign interests (presumably, non-resident non-citizens), and ensuring the Overseas Investment Act applies to all residential properties.

Will it work?

The focus on curbing migration demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of housing markets and demand side drivers. Research has shown that returning New Zealand citizens have the most significant impact on demand, as opposed to migrants, and that once controls for population growth are factored in, overseas migration has been found to have little to no impact on local house prices or rents. Additionally, migrants fill critical skills shortages in industries and roles needed for the New Zealand economy, for which we are unable to recruit locally. 

Notwithstanding the evidence that migration has little to no impact on house prices or rents, with the clear drop in migration due to COVID, it is extremely unlikey that banning migration will have any impact. Additionally, similar changes to the Overseas Investment Act were also proposed by the Labour Party in the 2017 election, with commentators at that time provided compelling evidence pointing to the ineffectiveness of such a policy.

Will it make a difference for Māori?

We acknowledge the positive intent of this policy – addressing the critically important issue of housing for our people. Unfortunately policy is, at best, contrary to evidence and inconsistent with a Te Tiriti-based approach (and a far cry from the 2017 election Māori Party policy on immigration), and at worst, risks appealing to xenophobia and stoking division between Māori and tauiwi.

This is the second article in Te Matapihi’s Māori housing election year series. Each of the subsequent articles will tackle a political party’s housing policies, with a focus on what these all mean for Māori. The series will conclude with a ‘scorecard’ comparison of what works, what doesn’t, and what’s likely to make a difference for Māori.

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