To understand what Putin placing his deterrence forces on highest alert means in clear terms, we must look beyond the initial European leadership responses, and review the immediate result to the United States DEFCON status.

European leaders have responsibly tempered reaction to Putin’s escalation, in which he has raised the alert level for Russian nuclear forces. They are viewing it with some scepticism and pointing out that his order is not clear in its actual implications.

However, the United States’ response to move the DEFCON (defence condition) level to 2 should immediately guide leaders, especially here in New Zealand to understand the broader implications.

DEFCON IMPLICATIONS

To understand what DEFCON 2 level indicates, you have only to review the last two times in history that the United States military DEFCON warning system was moved to level 2.

The changed alert level means that all primary deployment forces of the United States are now prepared to mobilse within 6 hours. Level 2 was reached only twice before in the defence level history.

DEFCON MOVED TO LEVEL 2:

October 22nd, 1962 at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis

DEFCON MOVED TO LEVEL 2:

January 15th, 1991 when the start of operations began for the Gulf War

Today, as a response to Putin’s order for Russian deterrence forces moved to their highest alert, the United States again moved the DEFCON to level 2.

LONG TERM GLOBAL CHANGES

We are no longer observing a short protracted isolated conflict in Eastern Europe. Instead we have moved to a new cold-war era and today is the demarcation between the old and new global order.

The reality that will directly impact New Zealand, and to which the leadership here must begin to properly plan for is a new order where the world will once again be divide quite rigorously and concretely between two hegemonic sides. It will be a particularly difficult new order in which to remain neutral and not be allocated as pawns.

ESSENTIAL LEADERSHIP DECISIONS

New Zealand leadership must quickly decide what methods to apply not to become direct players in what appears to be a restructuring and resurgence of the former cold-war.

Moreover, as trade, supply chains, and essential commodities will flow significantly differently going forward, critical resources must begin to be stockpiled, with both government and private sector engagement.

Our leaders must understand that the events unfolding will have a decade of implications, not a few weeks of turmoil.

It will be especially critical for the current government to begin allocating funds and processes to ensure important items including petrol supplies are properly increased to enable reasonable long term supply stability. Supply stability should also immediately be encouraged through incentives for private sectors.

We have witnessed this day a substantive new fulcrum for change.

This change will exacerbate many of the already existing conditions around inflation of commodities and supply chain limitations.

However, wise and swift action among New Zealand’s leadership can soften any long-term impact of this emerging new frontier.

Other Scoop articles by Mark Rais:·

· Clash of Super Powers in an Age of Global Conflict

· Leaders disparage NZ Covid response while their citizens die

Mark Rais is the creator of the think tank Trend Analysis Network, writer for the technology and science industry and volunteer senior editor for an on-line magazine. He has published several books and written numerous articles on the topics of macro-economics, technology and society.

UPDATED: as at 28-2-2022 9:26am UTC the overall DEFCON is at presumed at raised alert 3, while the specific combat section EUCOM (European Command) DEFCON level remains at level 2. This information is regularly updated to ensure clarity regarding the status of the potential defense level and military deployments for United States.

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