23 May

US President Biden unveiled his long-awaited Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) in Tokyo tonight, supported by a small group of allies, including New Zealand’s Prime Minister Arden by zoom.

“The low-key event was overshadowed by the elephant in the room – no one knows what the IPEF actually is”, said Jane Kelsey, Emeritus Professor at Auckland University.

“All we really know is (a) the US has a new high-level strategy that aims to counter China’s ascendency in the region, and (b) the Biden Administration has promised to appease its Democrat base with a new worker and climate friendly alternative to the old model of free trade agreements.”

Dr Kelsey observed that most attention has focused to date on the US’s foreign policy goals.

“For Aotearoa New Zealand, that means the increasingly difficult challenge of reconciling our deep economic dependency on China with America’s overtly anti-China strategy.”

At the same time, IPEF holds out the prospect to replace the old model of free trade deals with an alternative fit for the 21st century .

The Democrat base of labour and environmentalists has been promised a new model centred on workers, the environment and domestic communities. Corporate lobbyists want to revive the old Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA/CPTPP).

Dr Kelsey recalls that the TPPA exposed similar tensions here, and the Labour Opposition originally opposed that deal.

“Since then, the Labour Government has done a Trade for All review, been hauled over the coals in the Waitangi Tribunal for its failure to meet its Tiriti obligations, acknowledged the country’s over-dependency on low value-added agricultural exports and the Chinese market. “

“The pandemic has exposed the fragility of global supply chains and the climate crisis had deepened. Super-power rivalries in the region have intensified. Yet nothing has changed.”

“The Government has agreed that there should be greater public consultation on trade policy. Rather than dive straight into these negotiations, it should commission an independent white paper that sets out the opportunities and threats to Aotearoa New Zealand from such an arrangement and our options - standing aside from the negotiations, pursuing alternative arrangements, or establishing a clear, public negotiating mandate that would maximise the nation’s interests.”

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