The first negotiating round of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) will be held in Brisbane from 10th to 15th December.

“This is the most significant US-driven trade agreement since the deeply controversial and ill-fated Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA)”, says Professor Emeritus Jane Kelsey from the University of Auckland, who was a leading critic of the TPPA.

“IPEF looks eerily similar: it is a US-initiated, US-designed, US-driven venture designed to advance the US corporate interests and its presence in the Asia Pacific to neutralise the growing influence of China.”

Professor Kelsey explains that the US is in total control:

• it set the agenda.
• Its trade and commerce ministries decided the four “pillars”: trade, supply chains, clean economy, tax and corruption.
• The US signs off arrangements for meetings.
• US officials will chair the main negotiating committees.
• The schedule is tailored to the US hosting of APEC in 2023 and its domestic political timetable.
• Ultimately, the US will exercise veto power over anything it doesn’t like.

The American Association of the Indo-Pacific – a US corporate lobby created for IPEF and led by Paypal, Johnson & Johnson and private equity investor KKR - has urged the US to base its texts on the most pro-corporate rules in the TPPA and the US Mexico Canada deal.

Given the US’s timelines, Jane Kelsey suspects that is just what will happen.

“But how will we know? These negotiations are more secretive than the TPPA. Our government has agreed with the US not to release any negotiating documents until five years after the agreement enters into force – the TPPA secrecy was ‘only’ four years!”

Professor Kelsey gives some kudos to the Australian government for allowing “stakeholders”, including herself, to make presentations to chief negotiators during the Brisbane round, but notes that progressive and critical voices have little chance of counter-balancing the corporate lobbyists who are already shaping IPEF.

“If the US – and our government - are serious about a new style of trade agenda that is good for labour, women, indigenous peoples, small businesses, and climate action, let us see what is proposed and have genuine influence over its content.”

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