In the first monthly Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll since Chris Hipkins took office, the two largest parties are tied on 34.4% with Labour up 2.7 points on last month while National is down 2.8 points. ACT is up 0.9 points to 11.7% while the Greens are down 2.8 points to 7.8%.

The smaller parties were NZ First on 2.9%, the Māori Party on 2.1%, TOP on 2.0%, NZ Outdoors & Freedom on 1.0%, Democracy NZ on 0.9%, New Conservative on 0.8%, and Vision NZ on 0.2%.

Both Labour and National are on 46 seats with the former up 5 seats on last month and the latter down 3. ACT is up 1 seat to 15 while the Greens are down 4 to 10. The Maori Party is up 1 seat to 3.

This means only a slight uptick in the combined total for the Centre-Left to 56 seats – up 1 from last month. While the Centre-Right dips to 61 seats – down 2 seats – but still has just enough to form a government.

New Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins, scores a net favourability rating of +27%, which is 28 points higher than Jacinda Ardern’s final score as PM. New Deputy Prime Minister debuts with a net favourability rating of -12%.

Christopher Luxon’s net favourability has decreased 4 points from -1% to -5% while ACT leader David Seymour dips 7 points from -4% to -11%.

For preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern was on 34% last month while Chris Hipkins debuts at 30%. Luxon increases by 1 point to 26%.

Jacinda Ardern still has 9% while David Semyour is on 8%, Winston Peters on 3.5%, Chloe Swarbrick on 1.9% James Shaw on 1.3%, Matt King on 1.3%, Leighton Baker on 1.0% and Nicola Willis on 0.7%.

Taxpayers' Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, said:

"Like other recent public polls, Labour is benefiting from a bit of a bounce under its new leader although this seems to have come primarily at the expense of the Greens. This means that while the gap between the two blocs has narrowed slightly, on these numbers the Centre-Right can still form government – just.

"Voters also seem to be willing to give Chris Hipkins a chance as he debuts in our poll with a strong net favourability rating, but this could soon change if he is not seen to deliver on his promise to refocus his Government onto the 'bread and butter' issues facing New Zealanders."

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