Labour takes the lead for the first time in our poll since March 2022 as it rises 1.1 points on last month to 35.5% while National is up 0.4 points to 34.8%. ACT drops back 2.4 points to 9.3% and the Greens are down 2.1 points to 5.7%.

The smaller parties were NZ First on 4.2% (+1.3 points), New Conservatives on 2.5% (+1.7 points), TOP on 1.7% (-0.3 points), Māori Party 1.4% (-0.7 points), Vision NZ 0.8% (+0.6 points) and Democracy NZ 0.5% (-0.4 points).

Assuming all current electorates are held, this would result in 49 seats for Labour (up 3 on last month), 48 for National (up 2), 13 for ACT (down 2), 8 for the Greens (down 2) and 2 for the Māori Party (down 1), meaning the Centre-Right could still just govern with 61 seats.

Chris Hipkins's net favourability rating continues to soar and now sits at +33% up 6 points from last month. The prime minister also now has a positive net favourability rating with National voters of +13% up 17 points from -4% last month.

Christopher Luxon’s net favourability has increased by 3 points from -5% to -2% while ACT leader, David Seymour, sees a 12-point bounce to +1%.

More detailed results are available on our website.

Taxpayers’ Union

Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, said:

"This poll is further good news for Labour. It seems that last month's result was not just a one-off bounce and voters are responding positively to the party's policy 'refocus' and handling of Cyclone Gabrielle. Chris Hipkins's net favourability ratings continue to rise and he is a massive 35 points ahead of Christopher Luxon. It should serve as a wakeup call to the National Party and its leader that defining its election pitch in terms of which Labour policies it will ditch will no longer cut it.

"This poll also throws up some interesting results for the minor parties. Support for the Greens has dropped for the second month in a row and at 5.7%, they are perilously close to the 5% threshold. If this trend continues and Chlöe Swarbrick fails to hold her Auckland Central electorate, the party could be out of Parliament altogether. On the other hand, New Zealand First sees a boost to its highest level since our poll began. This month's score of 4.2% puts the party within striking distance of re-entering Parliament."

NOTES :

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.

The full report is available exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus.

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar is a member of the Board of the Taxpayers' Union and also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union Curia Poll was conducted from Thursday 2 to Tuesday 7 March 2023. The median response was collected on Monday 6 February 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is an independent and membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its mission, lower taxes, less waste, more accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed members and supporters.

The Taxpayers' Union operates a 24-hour media line for comment on taxpayer issues. Representatives are available on (04) 282 0302.

High-resolution images and logos are available on request or online at http://www.taxpayers.org.nz/resources

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