The latest Taxpayers’ Union - Curia Poll (released 10 May 2023) shows the growing influence minor parties may have on the next election.

Trend analysis of the results from the poll, in conjunction with results from the 13 March 1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll, demonstrate both a growing dissatisfaction with the power larger parties wield, and the critical role minor parties may play come election day (NZ Saturday, 14 October 2023).

In the Curia Poll, the ruling Labour party and National both see declines in seats, while minor parties ACT and The Māori Party show increases in seats, and Greens retain their seats.

The recent poll also demonstrates an underlying trend for potential slow shifting away from the polarising influence of the Labour and National parties. Moreover, this recent poll offers some insight into how the voting public views these two larger party leadership, with both Labour's Hipkins and National's Luxon showing declines in favourability.

As in other countries, New Zealand politics remains firmly established under major parties (both Labour and National), and may be a reflection of the lack of diversity in NZ that is a requisite for an effectual democracy.

Many of the minor parties have principal goals that may substantively improve New Zealand economic and social divides.

Moreover, when reviewing each of the minor party constitutions, there are overt correlations between gaps in current government strategies and potential new ideas that could develope directly from these minor parties.

Cursory analysis also demonstrates that Minor parties vote substantially more often within their stated party rules and constitution.

After reviewing several years of floor votes, analysis shows that the larger parties, Labour and National, do so only inconsistently. This was demonstrated in November 2022, when Labour voted to pass over 20 amendments and additions laws under urgency, with zero other parties offering supporting votes.

The twelve registered minor parties include:

• ACT New Zealand
• Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
• Heartland New Zealand Party
• Māori Party
• New Conservative
• New Zealand First Party
• NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party
• ONE Party
• The Greens
• The New Zealand Democratic Party for Social Credit
• The Opportunities Party (TOP)
• Vision New Zealand

In review of each minor party constitution Trend Analysis identified feasible strategies where some of the minor parties working cooperatively could form a conglomeration and reach the minimum 5% threshold.

If representation of minor parties expanded in the coming election trends show and even greater impact on the overall NZ political landscape, beyond the minor representation each individual party could hold.

Trends also validate that such expanding representation of these minor parties may institute potential improvements in the balance of power, wielded and tightly controlled by the Labour and National parties.

This influence by minor parties may potentially have wide-reaching benefits for the efficacy of new bills and mandates drafted into law, with more aggregate representation of the voting public.

© Scoop Media