A new Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll shows that National's Katie Nimon is leading the race for the Napier seat with 48% of decided voters compared to Labour's Mark Hutchinson at 37%.

New Zealand First’s Laurie Turnbull is third with 5% and 4% of respondents said they would vote for the Te Pāti Māori candidate despite there being no declared candidates for the party in Napier. The remaining candidates are on 2% or less. However, 18% of voters remain undecided and 6% refused to say who they would vote for.

The poll of 400 respondents was conducted on Sunday, 20 August 2023. The full results, including the most important local issues for voters, are available here.

New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union Campaign Manager, Callum Purves, said:

“This poll is snapshot rather than a prediction but, if repeated on election day, would mean a convincing win for National’s Katie Nimon. Having been held by Labour’s Stuart Nash since 2014, these numbers would have the Napier electorate turning blue for the first time since Chris Tremain was the local National Party MP.

“Katie Nimon has managed to pull some voters away from the Labour candidate with 13% of those who voted for Stuart Nash in 2020 opting for Nimon this time around compared with just 1% of those who voted for Katie Nimon in 2020 opting to vote for the new Labour candidate, Mark Hutchinson.

“But with 24% of voters still either undecided or refusing to say how they intend to vote, there is still plenty of time for both candidates to make an impression and the result is far from a certainty.

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