New Zealand: National/Act NZ Up 1.5% To 49% In August And On Course For Victory At Next Month’s Election

Tuesday, 5 September 2023, 10:19 am
Press Release: Roy Morgan Research

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for August 2023 shows a right-leaning National/ Act NZ coalition is set for victory at next month’s New Zealand Election, increasing their combined support by 1.5% points to 49% in August. The potential right-leaning coalition is well ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens coalition which is now on 37.5%, up 1.5% points in August.

This is the highest combined support for the two right-leaning parties so far this year. Of the two parties it is Act NZ which is surging, up 4% points to 18% in August – its highest level of support since December 2021 just after Christopher Luxon became the leader of National.

Support for National was actually down in August, by 2.5% points to 31%. The result in August was almost identical to the support levels of the two parties in December 2021 – the first full month with Luxon as leader of National. In December 2021 National had 31.5% support and Act NZ had 18.5%.

The rise in combined support for two parties means the parties are on course to capture a majority of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament at next month’s election.

There wasn’t good news for the Labour Party in August with support dipping 2% points to 24% - the lowest level of support for the party that has won the last two elections since being elected at the 2017 election under former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

Some of this support was picked up by the Greens which increased their support by 2.5% points to 12.5% in August – the highest level of support for the party for six months since February 2023.

Maori Party and New Zealand First both set to win seats in next Parliament

The results for August show another 14.5% (down 3% points from July) are supporting other parties outside the ‘big four’ including the Maori Party on 4%, down 2% points from July. The Maori Party is the only other party to currently be represented in the New Zealand Parliament with two seats.

In contrast, support is surging for New Zealand First, up for the second straight month and up 0.5% points to 5.5% in August. This is the highest level of support for New Zealand First for four years since August 2019 when the party was in a governing coalition with Labour.

At these levels of support both the Maori Party and New Zealand First are set to win seats in Parliament at next month’s election – although neither will have the balance of power.

A further 5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, down 1.5% points from a month ago, including 2% (down 2% points) who support The Opportunities Party, 0.5% (down 0.5% points) who support Democracy NZ and 2.5% (up 1% point) who support other parties.

National/Act NZ set for a clear majority with 62 seats

If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would score 62 seats, well ahead of the 46 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition.

The projected results show a further 12 seats split between New Zealand First (7 seats) and the Maori Party (5 seats).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,046 electors during August. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5%, unchanged, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 7.5pts to 76 in August

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating recovered from a record low in July, up by 7.5pts to 76 in August. Now 56% (down 4.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to under a third, only 32% (up 3% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 1.3pts to 85.0 and is clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 78.1 on August 21-27, 2023.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Men favour National/Act NZ while women are evenly split between left and right

On an overall basis men are heavily in favour of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 57.5% almost double Labour/Greens on 31%. This high support among men is the basis of the clear lead National/ Act NZ have overall. In contrast, support among women is evenly split between the governing Labour/Greens coalition on 41.5% and the potential National/Act NZ coalition on 41%.

A large majority of 66.5% of older men aged 50+ support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government compared to under a quarter, 23.5%, who support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition.

There is a slightly closer result for younger men aged 18-49 with a clear plurality of 49% supporting a potential National/Act NZ coalition government compared to just over a third, 37.5%, who support the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition.

Women aged 50+ favour a potential National/ Act NZ coalition on 46.5%, a clear 8% points ahead of the current governing Labour/Greens coalition on 38.5%. However, younger women aged 18-49 are the only major demographic group which favours the governing Labour/Greens on 44.5%, just ahead of a potential National/Act NZ coalition on 36.5%. Nearly a fifth of younger women, 19%, support other parties not including any of the ‘big four’.

Support for Act NZ is clearly defined by gender and is far higher amongst men at 24% almost double their support amongst women at only 12.5%.

Support for the Greens is higher amongst younger women (24%) and men (13%) than amongst their older counterparts. Only 7.5% of women aged 50+ and 4.5% of men aged 50+ support the Greens.

The Maori Party attracts the support of 6% of women including 8.5% support from women aged 18-49 and 3% support from women aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 2% of men including .5% of men aged 18-49 and 2% of men aged 50+.

Support for NZ First is consistent across both genders and age groups at 5.5% overall, at 6% for women and at 5.5% for men.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 62.5 in August

Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating rebounded by 7.5pts to 76 in August.

Among women overall now a majority of 53.5% (down 4% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 32% (up 1.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 78.5 (up 5.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 improved by 8pts to 82 while it was up 2.5pts to 75 for women aged 50+.

A clear majority of men, 58.5% (down 5.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while only 32% (up 4.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 73.5 (up 10pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 recovered by 22.5pts to 83.5 while for older men aged 50+ it was down 3.5pts to only 62.5.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the momentum for a change in Government in New Zealand has strengthened during August with support for a right-leaning National-Act NZ coalition up 1.5% to 49% in August and a substantial lead over Labour-Greens:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a potential National-Act NZ coalition up 1.5% points to 49% in August and maintaining a large 12.5% point lead over a potential Labour-led Government in coalition with the Greens on 36.5% (up 1.5% points).

“Interestingly, both major parties lost support in August with National down 2.5% points to 31% and Labour down 2% points to 24%. However, their potential partners both gained significant support as voters look increasingly at alternative parties.

“Support for Act NZ increased 4% points to 18% – the highest level of support for the centre-right libertarian party since Christopher Luxon’s first month as National Leader, while support for the centre-left Greens Party was up 3.5% points to 12.5%.

“If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election National/Act NZ would hold a majority of 62 seats and Labour/Greens would hold only 46 seats meaning a change of government is growing increasingly likely next month.

“The decline in support for Labour is no surprise given the issues the party has faced – and the scandal involving Justice Minister Kiri Allan late in July – just before interviewing for this survey began in August.

“Former Justice Minister Kiri Allan was charged with reckless driving and failure to accompany a police officer after a car crash in late July. Allan quickly resigned from her position as Justice Minister and won’t recontest her electorate of East Coast after being first elected in 2020.

“The scandal is not the first for Labour but coming so close to the election has been a clear negative for the party as it gets set to campaign for re-election over the next six weeks.

“The drop in support for National will also be a concern for National leader Christopher Luxon. Luxon was elected in 2020 and became the Opposition Leader at the end of November 2021.

“Luxon’s leadership led to an immediate rise in support for National over the next few months – peaking at 40% in May 2022 and again at 39% in November 2022. However, since that second peak, support for National has steadily declined during 2023 and is now at only 31%.

“The largest beneficiary of the decline in support for National has been Act NZ which now has the support of nearly one-in-five New Zealanders. Perhaps most incredibly it is older men aged 50+ who are now Act NZ’s strongest supporters at 27% in August – a higher level of support than this group has for the governing Labour at only 19%.

“The strong rise in support for Act NZ this year comes as New Zealand finally removed some of it’s COVID-19 pandemic restrictions in the month of August – nearly a full year after Australia did the same. The mandatory 7-day isolation period for those testing positive to COVID-19 ended only on Tuesday August 15.

“The long-running COVID-19 restrictions and associated vaccine mandates have also powered a renewed increase in support for NZ First – now at 5.5% in August. This is the highest level of support for NZ First for four years since August 2019 – before anyone had even heard of COVID-19.

“Although the rise in support for NZ First running up to an election is something we’ve seen many times before the strong support for National and Act NZ means that even if NZ First does win seats in the next Parliament it is unlikely to form part of the government.

“As early voting is set to start later this month for New Zealanders overseas all the indications are that we should expect a new New Zealand Prime Minister will be elected in just over a month’s time.”

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

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Roy Morgan Research

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A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has over 70 years' experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. Roy Morgan Research was set up in New Zealand in the 1990s and has been collecting information across a wide range of industries in New Zealand ever since. Roy Morgan currently has over 10 years of trended data on a geographically and demographically representative sample of over 12,000 New Zealanders aged 14+.

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