A new Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll in the Auckland Central Electorate has voters undecided between Greens incumbent Chlöe Swarbrick (polling at 26% of voters) and National candidate Mahesh Muralidhar (polling at 24%) - a statistical tie when accounting for the margin of error. Labour’s candidate, Oscar Sims is struggling to reclaim Labour’s electorate vote from 2020, polling at 12% of voters.

Among minor parties, NZ First is attracting 3% of the electorate vote, despite their candidate pulling out of the race, while ACT’s candidate, Felix Poole, is currently polling at 1% of the vote. However, 29% of the electorate is yet to make up their mind about which candidate they support, leaving plenty of room for the front runners to take a lead in this pivotal electorate.

The poll of 500 respondents was conducted on Sunday, 24 September 2023. The full results, including the most important local issues for voters, are available here.

New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union Campaigns Manager, Callum Purves, says:

“This poll shows a dead heat between the incumbent, high-flying Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick, and the resurgent National candidate, Mahesh Muralidhar, to represent this centre-city electorate. This is a notable change from 2020, when Auckland Central hosted a three-cornered contest after Nikki Kaye’s retirement – Labour’s support in the electorate has almost halved since 2020, leaving it in a distant third place this electoral cycle. With 29% of the electorate undecided about their electorate vote, time will tell if Chlöe Swarbrick will repeat history, or Mahesh Muralidhar will take back the electorate that National lost in 2020.

“A damning statistic from this poll is that voters are assured that the country is heading in the wrong direction, with nearly two-thirds of the electorate unsatisfied with how the country is dealing with the nation’s problems. This may be reflective of local issues identified by those surveyed – law and order is at front of mind for nearly a third of voters, followed by public and transport at 10% and 9% respectively. Candidates will need to show how committed they are to these issues if they are to swing informed voters in this highly competitive electorate.”

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