National increases 0.9 points on last month to 35.9% while Labour are also up, gaining 1.4 points to take them to 27.9%. ACT have dropped by 5.2 points to 9.1% while the Greens are down 2.1 points to 10.6%.

The smaller parties are NZ First on 6.9% (+3 points), the Māori Party on 3.7% (+0.8 points), TOP on 2.9% (+0.2 points), New Conservatives on 0.7% (-0.1 points), Vision NZ on 0.3% (-0.2 points), and DemocracyNZ on 0.3% (+0.3 points).

National are up one seat on last month to 46 while Labour remain on 35. ACT have dropped 7 seats to 12 while the Greens have dropped 4 to 13. NZ First will re-enter Parliament on these figures, gaining 9 seats from last month for a total of 9 while the Māori Party are up one to 5 seats.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 58 is down 6 seats on last month, while the Centre-Left bloc’s total is down 3 to 53. Neither bloc would be able to form a government alone, but both could do so in coalition with NZ First.

Both Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins have risen in this month’s preferred Prime Minister polls. Luxon has risen by 4 points to 29%, while Hipkins has gained 2 points to 27%.

David Seymour has dropped 4 points to 4% while 4.5% of people would still prefer Jacinda Ardern (down 2.5%). Chloë Swarbrick is up 1.4 points to 6.1%, Winston Peters is down 0.2 points to 4.3%, Nicola Willis remains unchanged at 2.5%, James Shaw has dropped 0.9 points to 1.2%, and Matt King has dropped 0.6 points to 0.7%. Marama Davidson has gained 0.9 points to 1.2% while Chris Bishop has dropped 0.2 points to 0.1%

More detailed results including polling on favourability ratings of different politicians are available on our website.

The full report is available exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus.

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 1 October to Wednesday 04 October 2023. The median response was collected on Tuesday 3 October 2023. The sample size was 1,000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. 909 respondents were decided on the party vote.The sample selection for the phone panel is from those who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone selected at random from 15,000 nationwide phone numbers plus a random selection from an online panel (that complies with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is an independent and membership-driven activist group, dedicated to being the voice for Kiwi taxpayers in the corridors of power. Its mission, lower taxes, less waste, more accountability, is supported by 200,000 subscribed members and supporters.

The Taxpayers' Union operates a 24-hour media line for comment on taxpayer issues. Representatives are available on (04) 282 0302.

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