National is down on last month to 37.1% (-0.3 points) while Labour is up slightly to 25.7% (+0.4 points). The Greens take third place on 14.6% (+3.3 points) while ACT drops back to 7.2% (-2.8 points).

The smaller parties are NZ First on 6.3% (-1.1 points) and Te Pati Maori on 4.6% (+2.1 points).

For the minor parties, TOP is on 1.6%, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.5%, Democracy NZ is on 0.3%, Vision NZ is on 0.2%, New Conservatives are on 0.2%, and the others combined were on 0.8%

This month's results are compared to the last month's Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll.

National is down one seat on last month to 47 while Labour is steady on 32. The Greens continue to rise, now on 18 seats (up three), while ACT has fallen to 9 seats (down four). NZ First is down one seat to 8 while Te Pati Maori is unchanged on 6 seats.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 64 seats is down six from last month while the Centre-Left has increased by three to 56 seats.

On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government. Given the higher vote for Te Pati Maori in this poll, Parliament would have no overhang seats.

Christopher Luxon’s net favourability is down 2 points on last month to -7% while Chris Hipkins’s score is down 8 points to -6%. This is the first time a Labour leader has had a negative net favourability in the Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll. David Seymour is down 3 points to -11% while Winston Peters is down 6 points to -18%.

More detailed results, including voters' top three issues, as well as National's lead over Labour on key voting topics are available on our website.

MEDIA SUMMARY STATEMENT:

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between 2 April and 4 April 2024, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.6% were undecided on the party vote question. The full results are at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/poll_april_2024

NOTES TO EDITORS:

The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

The Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll was conducted from Tuesday 02 April to Thursday 04 April 2024. The median response was collected on Wednesday 03 April 2024.

The target population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote. The sample population is adults aged 18+ who live in New Zealand and are eligible and likely to vote who are contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel. 1,000 respondents agreed to participate, 800 by phone and 200 by online panel. The number of decided voters on the vote questions was 935. There were 43 (5.5%) undecided voters and 23 (1.8%) who refused the vote question.

A random selection of 15,000 NZ phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from up to three global online panels (that comply with ESOMAR guidelines for online research). If the call is to a landline, the person who is home and next has a birthday is asked to take part. Those who take part through an online panel are excluded from further polls on the same topic for six months. Multiple call-backs occurred to maximise the response rate. Those who said they were unlikely or very unlikely to vote were excluded.

The poll was part of a wider omnibus survey for multiple clients. Questions on voting sentiment are asked before any other questions. The questions were asked in the order they are listed. The results are weighted to reflect the overall voting adult population in terms of gender, age, and area. Based on this sample of 1,000 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 3.1%, at the 95% confidence level. Results for sub-groups such as age and area will have a much higher margin of error and not seen as precise.

This poll was conducted in accordance with the NZ Political Polling Code, Research Association New Zealand Code of Practice and the International Chamber of Commerce/European Society for Opinion and Market Research Code on Market and Social Research.

The polling questions and the order in which they were asked can be found here.

This poll should be formally referred to as the “Taxpayers’ Union – Curia Poll”.

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