The latest Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll for July shows National up 2.2 points on last month to 37.6% while Labour drops 3.5 points to 25.9%.

The Greens are relatively static on 12.5% (-0.2 points) while ACT drops marginally to 9.1% (-0.6 points).

New Zealand First is up 1.7 points to 7.3% while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.5 points to 3.5%.

For the minor parties, TOP is on 2.4% (+1.6 points), Outdoors & Freedom is on 1.0% (-0.3 points), and the combined total for all other parties is 0.8%.

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union – Curia poll conducted in June 2024.

National is up three seats on last month to 47 while Labour is down three seats to 33.

The Greens are unchanged on 16 while ACT is down one on last month to 11 seats.

New Zealand First is up two seats on last month to nine while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged on six.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 67 is up four on last month. The combined seats for the Centre-Left is down three to 55.

On these numbers, National and ACT would require the support of NZ First to form a government.

This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have an overhang of two seats and a total of 122 seats.

More detailed results, including preferred Prime Minister scores and government approval ratings, are available on our website.

NOTES:
The scientific poll was conducted by Curia Market Research and commissioned by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. The full polling report is being released exclusively to members of our Taxpayer Caucus. As is well known, but for full disclosure, David Farrar co-founded the Taxpayers' Union and previously served on its board. He is also a Director of Curia Market Research Ltd.

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