In Brief

• The minister in charge of NIWA, Judith Collins, gave incorrect information to Centrist about how NIWA conducts climate analysis.
• NIWA’s under fire after the Gabrielle Flood Review revealed missing data on big historical floods and whether that data could have saved lives.
• Collins denied historic records were missing or that NIWA has to resort to its Historic Weather Events catalogue for extreme weather analysis.
• The Review found contrary evidence on both counts.
• These false statements raise critical questions over whether NIWA is ‘fit for purpose’ and whether systemic research failures are putting lives and property at risk.

Minister Collins defends NIWA amid misleading allegations

Minister Collins is responsible for overseeing the climate agency NIWA, and has provided inaccurate information, while defending the agency against accusations of misleading Parliament.

This revelation follows the release of the Climate of Fear report, which exposed the absence of historic mega storms from NIWA’s Historic Weather Events (HWE) database, calling into question the reliability of NIWA’s extreme climate predictions.

Evidence shows NIWA did rely on disputed database

In response to inquiries from Centrist regarding her confidence in NIWA and its board, Minister Collins stated she had been assured by NIWA that "no historical climate records have been lost" and that NIWA relies solely on its National Climate Database for weather and climate analyses, dismissing the use of the HWE catalogue.

“NIWA climate scientists, and other climate scientists nationally and internationally, use the New Zealand National Climate Database to identify and analyse weather events or trends in climate, including the frequency or severity of weather events. They do not use NIWA’s Historic Weather Events catalogue [Centrist emphasis].

“I accept these explanations. Accordingly I confirm that I continue to have confidence in NIWA and its board,” concluded Minister Collins.

NIWA’s use of (inaccurate) historic weather data revealed

A NIWA analysis of Cyclone Gabrielle flooding dated 23 February this year and released to Centrist by Hawke’s Bay Regional Council, shows NIWA’s assurances to Collins were false.

The document formed the core of NIWA’s evidence to the HBRC Independent Review of Cyclone Gabrielle’s flood response, and in its list of scientific references at the end of the NIWA report, the only NIWA database referenced is “NIWA 2018: NIWA’s Historic Weather Events Catalogue.”

Government oversight and accountability under scrutiny

Minister Collins' continued confidence in NIWA and its board, based on the agency’s misleading assurances, is now under scrutiny. The minister's belief that no historical records were missing and that the HWE catalogue was not used is now clearly contradicted by evidence presented in the Cyclone Gabrielle review. This situation raises broader questions about government oversight and accountability regarding climate data management.

Call for urgent inquiry into systematic failures

We offered Collins the chance to comment on the false statements. Her response:

“I have sought and received assurances from the Chair of NIWA’s Board that the information provided was complete and accurate.”

Has Collins been duped? You be the judge

NOTE: You can also read Part 1 of this investigation here: https://centrist.co.nz/niwas-deadly-oversight-historic-storm-data-ignored-in-climate-risk-analysis/

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