The National Party will have little reason to celebrate following the results of the first Taxpayers-Union Curia Poll for 2025.

The poll, conducted between 9-13 January, shows National down 4.6 points to 29.6%, while Labour have risen 4.0 points from last month, overtaking them with30.9%.

This is the first time the Labour Party has led National since April 2023, when Labour enjoyed the leadership bounce following Chris Hipkins replacing Jacinda Ardern.

The Greens are up 1.2 points to 9.5%, while ACT is down 2.2 points to 10.8%.New Zealand First is up 2.7 points to 8.1%, while Te Pāti Māori is down 0.2% to 5.3%.

The headline poll results and information about the methodology can be found on the Taxpayers' Union's website at http://www.taxpayers.org.nz/25jan_tuc_poll

For the minor parties, Outdoors and Freedom is on 1.7% (down 0.3 points),TOP is on 2.1% (+1.0 points), and Vision NZ is on 0.6 (+0.4 points). New Conservatives are up 0.5 points to 0.5%.

This month's results are compared to the last Taxpayers' Union–Curia Poll conducted in December 2024, available at https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/final_poll_dec2024

Based on these results, National is down 6 seats to 38, whilst Labour is up 5 seats to 39.

The Greens gain one seat to 12, whilst ACT is down 3 to 14 seats. New Zealand First is up 3 seats to 10, whilst Te Pati Maori remains on 7.

The combined seats for the centre-right are down 6 to 62, whilst the combined seats for the centre-left are up 6 to 58.

This month, the Taxpayers' Union is also releasing the Country Right Direction/Wrong Direction data, showing the full context of voter sentiment.

Commenting on the results, Taxpayers' Union spokesman, Jordan Williams, said:

"Tough news about the dire state of the economy hit the headlines in December, so it's not a coincidence the Government's taken a big hit in the polls."

"Just one year into this Government, a two-to-one ratio of voters say New Zealand is headed in the 'wrong direction'. That is anything but an endorsement of National's softly-softly approach to economic and fiscal matters."

"For many families, Christmas provides a real economic mirror. The data shows people are doing it tough. Nicola Willis' lack of boldness in the economic sphere appears to be hurting National's electoral prospects."

© Scoop Media