Trump Moves Toward Pacific 'Not Surprising,' Collins Says

Friday, 21 February 2025, 7:01 pm
Article: RNZ

Phil Pennington, Reporter

The Defence Minister Judith Collins says she has not been entirely taken by surprise by the US's pivot away from security backstop to Europe towards the Indopacific.

Collins has faced a busy few days in world politics amid the ructions in Europe and sightings of Chinese warships off Sydney.

Just returned from tumultuous security talks in Europe, she told RNZ on Friday if Europeans are being left reeling from the Trump administration's surprises, she is less so.

"It was not entirely [surprising], I watched the Senate hearings, I heard there from Secretary of Defence Hegseth that there is a big focus going into the Pacific.

"So it was not entirely unexpected for me, but I think it was a little unexpected for the Europeans."

Some did not realise how vital the Indopacific was, she said.

The Munich conference Collins was at was stunned by US Vice President JD Vance's speech stating the biggest security threat facing Europe was not Russia or China, but the "threat from within".

Global commentary this week has questioned the US commitment to defence alliances - "Alliances that were once seen as the bulwark of the Cold War are now viewed as an outdated albatross by a significant segment of the American public," wrote veteran New York Times reporter Peter Baker.

A refrain of successive New Zealand governments has been the country's reliance on alliances.

"I wouldn't necessarily describe it the same way as The New York Times," Collins said.

How would she describe it?

"I would say that the alliances are more that, everyone has to step up.

"Everyone has to step up more, they cannot just rely on the taxpayers of the US. And that's true."

Collins was more careful than candid over the implications from the shake-up of the international order signalled in Munich and Brussels.

The US was a longstanding, reliable defence partner, she said, and New Zealand was also close with Australia.

Regardless of the Europe ructions, and the US pivot to our backyard, "I do not think we have changed our settings".

However, Collins expected the two-year-old IP4 alliance New Zealand is in with Australia, Korea and Japan, which is a fulcrum for collaboration with NATO, would have a lot more to do in 2025, and also expand to include other countries.

Hegseth stated the pivot's rationale: "Common sense is you defend your neighbourhood."

He has also talked about allies and partners joining the US in "contesting" space with a "pernicious" China.

In the days after Munich, three powerful Chinese warships have sailed further south than possibly ever before, to just off Sydney, in a demonstration of growing reach.

Was Collins a hawk or a dove on China?

"Oh, I think I'm a sensible person in the middle really."

China was "not our enemy" and a partner in trade and other matters, but was out of step with New Zealand's interests on security, such as in the Cook Islands, and was not the China of 15 years ago, she said.

Germany, the UK and some others had helped Ukraine a lot, but ultimately "they're a little underdone when it comes to their contribution".

"That's what they were being told and that's what they were saying to me."

Was New Zealand "under-done"?

"Oh I think so, yes, absolutely."

The country had to become more self-sufficient.

However, she would not be drawn when the government aimed to hit two percent of GDP spent on defence, twice the current rate.

"Yes, well, you'll have to wait for the [defence capability] plan to be released, it's very important that we don't get ahead of that plan."

But Prime Minister Christopher Luxon had made clear "we are going to be moving very closely towards that", Collins said.

Hegseth has forecast cuts in conventional military spending in the US - even as NATO countries are pushed to hit five percent - but much more on emerging technologies such as hypersonics and quantum tech.

The Defence Secretary is a fan, too, of AI-enabled weaponry - although big questions remain about how AI systems can be "poisoned" if adversaries were to hack them: "Today, there is still a limited ability to operationally assess deployed military AI-enabled systems for adversarial vulnerabilities," said notes to a workshop being run next month by the Pentagon's research arm, DARPA.

Collins is also a fan of advanced military tech.

New Zealand remains outside of the main new conduit for trade in that tech, AUKUS, at the same time as Australia has been hailing how the AUKUS pact has lowered barriers for it with the US and UK to allow millions more in military exports.

"That was under AUKUS," said Collins.

"And we have to see very much what we can do. I am constantly speaking to the US, as I am sure everyone in MFAT is, about the opportunities to help us grow our technology and defence base. Clearly that can be done and it takes [the US] Congress to do that.

"So we'll wait and see how that goes, but I can tell you that is a big focus."

New Zealand is part of increasing US moves to expand its military industrial base in the Indopacific, and has told the Pentagon it is on board with a recent strategy to involve local commercial space companies in building for the US military.

On the government still considering joining AUKUS Pillar Two, a live question for her entire time in the job, she said the Budget and capability plan had to come first - "let's wait and see".

© Scoop Media

RNZ

New Zealand's public broadcaster, providing comprehensive NZ news and current affairs, specialist audio features and documentaries.

Radio New Zealand is a Crown entity established under the Radio New Zealand Act 1995. Radio New Zealand News are vital elements in our programming, providing impartial news and information to New Zealanders every day. Radio New Zealand (RNZ) provides listeners with exciting and independent radio programmes in accordance with the Radio New Zealand Charter.

Contact RNZ

• Website - www.radionz.co.nz
• Twitter - @rnz_news
• Facebook
• Link - Contact RNZ