The coalition government's performance is generating more negative than positive feelings among New Zealanders.

A Horizon Research survey finds:

• 39% (around 1,500,000 adults*) are concerned about how the coalition government is performing.
• 38% (1,453,000 adults) are disappointed
• 34% (1,322,000 adults) are frustrated
• 24% (908,000 adults) are angry
• 22% (846,000 adults) say they are hopeful.

The government’s performance is making only 10% feel pleased, 5% excited, 4% proud, and 4% inspired. Respondents were shown a randomised list of words and asked to choose the words they feel when they think about the current performance of the coalition government.

*All population numbers based on the Stats NZ Census population of 3,865,235 people aged 18+. All population numbers are to the nearest thousand.

Older respondents are more likely to have negative feelings towards the government. For example, 56% of those aged 75+ and 49% of those aged 65 to 74 are concerned compared with 39% of the overall sample. 47% of 65 to 74 year-olds are disappointed and frustrated, compared with 38% and 34% overall.

ACT (36%) and National voters (39%) are more likely to be hopeful about the current coalition government.

Those who voted for the main opposition parties in the 2023 general are more negative towards the government’s performance.

20% of New Zealand First voters are ambivalent.

People who are financially very comfortable or comfortable and have money to meet their needs are more likely to be pleased with the government.

Those who are comfortable and have enough money to meet basic needs, without missing out too much are concerned.

46% of people who are struggling to meet their basic needs are angry, 53% concerned, 47% disappointed.

Those who think their lives will get worse in the next 12 months have stronger negative feelings towards the government’s performance.

31% (1,179,000 adults) think life will be worse. Of these 10% say it will be much worse.

Concern 5 times higher than hope

The number concerned by the government’s performance equates to around 719,000 adults. By contrast, the government’s performance is making only 145,000 of this group hopeful.

Comment: Re-election risk for coalition and New Zealand First

Horizon Research says the survey could indicate the task New Zealand First has before it, if it is to keep attracting 6.09% of votes cast, as in 2023 – and help National and ACT form a future government, if this is required.

At the 2023 election 2,851,211 party votes were cast, 173,533 of them for New Zealand First (6.09% of votes cast).

Horizon says, given the turnout remained constant (which it may not), if NZF support drops by 13,975 votes it falls from 6.01% of the vote to 4.9% and would not be in Parliament unless it wins an electorate seat.

Horizon says recent polling across 54 countries by Gallop finds people most want hope (56%) from the leaders in their lives, followed by trust (33%), compassion (7%) and stability (4%).

Parties like NZ First having 36% (62,471) of their voters feeling disappointed could become a serious issue for the party and the coalition.

Notes:

Appendix - Methodology
Research method

An online survey of adults living in New Zealand aged 18 and older.

Sample sources

Members of two nationwide Horizon Research panels and a third-party panel (used for source diversity).

Fieldwork dates

20th to 25th February 2025.

Sample size

1,011 adults.

Weighting

The total sample is weighted on age, gender, ethnicity, region and party vote at the 2023 general election to reflect the New Zealand adult population.

Maximum predicted margin of error

±3.1% at the 95% confidence level.

Population estimates in the report

These are based on the Stats NZ Census 2023 population of 3,865,235 people aged 18 or more. All population numbers are to the nearest thousand.

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