Researchers to probe climate change future

Researchers to probe climate change future

Many of the big questions facing the world today relate to climate change: how will the increased greenhouse gas emissions affect our future climate? Can we identify ‘tipping points’ beyond which damage caused by climate change becomes extreme or irreversible? Landcare Research scientists are starting new approaches including long-term collection of data, which they say are crucial to the quest for answers.

Researchers have done much work to develop methods for inventorying New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions – as required for reporting and meeting emissions reductions targets set by the Kyoto Protocol for 2012. But predicting future risks beyond 2012 is much more challenging than reporting on the current position. What effects will climate change have on our environment and our land-based economy?

Landcare Research Global Change Processes science leader Dr David Whitehead says little is known about how key ‘feedback responses’ will affect ecosystems and net greenhouse gas emissions– both globally and locally.

“Within New Zealand, as average air temperatures rise, carbon loss from soil will be accelerated, and this will exacerbate emissions. We don’t yet understand the magnitude these responses will have,” David says.

“That’s why we are developing baseline measurements and long-term data sets to help us record changes over time, and check the success of mitigation approaches where necessary.

“We know that with current climate change trends, generally the west of the country will become wetter and the east will become drier,” David says. “Drought decreases the ability of trees and shrublands to take up carbon dioxide, and warmer temperatures increase carbon dioxide losses from soils. Our mature native forests are already very close to being carbon neutral. Will future changes in climate tip many of our major ecosystems to become net carbon sources rather than sinks?

“How do we know whether our ecosystems are more at risk than they were, say, a decade ago? How do we know that nitrification inhibitors are working, for example?”

On the plus side there will be economic opportunities, although these too come at a price.

“As temperatures increase, we may be able to grow a wider range of crops,” David says. “However, it takes time and money to convert land for a new use. Also, there will be increased risk of sudden and incremental flood damage as storm intensity and frequency increase.”

The questions needing answers are numerous and multi-dimensional. Landcare Research is focusing on improving methods for measuring greenhouse gas exchange, and verifying where emissions are changing. Researchers will pay close attention to offsetting emissions from regenerating forests and shrublands and new mitigation opportunities.

In addition, Landcare Research scientists are contributing to an integrated assessment to understand and model the economics and social implications of climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation for New Zealand. Collaborators in this project are NIWA, AgResearch, Geological and Nuclear Sciences, the Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust, and Infometrics. This project involves collaborative learning – demonstrating to communities how to do their part in reducing emissions, and what the benefits are.

“This is starting to take off already, with many people seeking to reduce reliance on fossil fuels by recycling, and thinking more about how they travel and use energy,” David says.

ENDS

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