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What To Expect From COP29 – Expert Reaction
The 29th UN Climate Change Conference begins today.
Key issues to be discussed in the annual two-week conference include climate financing, national climate plans, and adaptation.
A large Pacific climate adaptation study is also being launched.
The Science Media Centre asked experts what to expect from COP29.
Dr Dalila Gharbaoui, political & social scientist, Adjunct Research Fellow, University of Canterbury, comments:
“At a high level, this COP could be considered the ‘finance COP’ and hopefully the ‘COP of delivery on concrete actions,’ with some Pacific States such as Fiji calling for concrete climate action for communities: “If we are not talking about grassroots change then there is no point in us coming to COP” – Sivendra Michael, Fiji Permanent Secretary for Environment and Climate Change.
“Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape announced in August the country would not attend COP29 in “protest at the big nations” for a lack of “quick support to victims of climate change”.
“The last COP28 was more about taking major decisions (moving away from fossil fuels, operationalising the Loss and Damage fund etc). Expectations are high for this COP to be more focused on delivery (implementation) of climate action, with dedicated forums such as the climate action innovation zone fully focused on delivering actions.
“Key issues to watch include:
1. Improving Climate Finance.
– This includes
specifying details like the timeframe and terms of
provision.
– After agreement at COP28 to operationalise
the Loss & Damage fund, COP29 should be scaling up
financial pledges to this fund, to improve finance delivery
on the ground.
– A New
Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance that
responds to developing countries’ needs will be discussed.
The $100
billion annual goal on climate finance set in 2009 will
be re-negotiated, as it is clearly not enough!
2. Stronger commitments from parties to deliver on COP28 agreements, such as moving away from fossil fuels.
–
The focus will be on countries’ accountability, ensuring
their Nationally
Determined Contributions match the level of emissions
reductions for limiting global temperature rise to
1.5oC.
– There will also be a focus on ‘just
transition’, people-first approaches, and sector-specific
targets like concrete goals for shifting to emissions-free
energy and food systems.
– All of these will be
expected to align with the National
Adaptation Plans, which should have a stronger focus on
vulnerable communities and just transition since these were
highlighted in the last
IPCC report.
3. Cities and Urbanisation will be another focus in negotiations with a devoted pavilion on “Multilevel action and urbanization” showcasing how cities and regions are leading climate action, with the last two IPCC reports recognising that local governance has a key role in delivering climate action.”
No conflicts of interest.
Dr Angela Baschieri, Science Leader on Climate Health Impacts, ESR, comments:
“Climate change is the defining health challenge of our times. Its impacts are complex and far-reaching, touching every determinant of health: the food we eat, the air we breathe, the water we drink, and the stability of our socio-economic systems and health infrastructure. Climate change drives ill health through direct and indirect pathways, and any delay in transitioning from fossil fuels will lead to further avoidable health impacts. Evidence suggests that adaptation becomes increasingly difficult beyond certain levels of warming, emphasising the urgent need to accelerate action.
“This year COP29 – held between the 11th to the 22nd of November and hosted by the Republic of Azerbaijan in Baku – will centre discussions on finance, transforming systems and cities, strengthening human capital, supporting adaptation and resilience and protecting the most vulnerable communities.
“Ambitious action to halt and reverse the climate crisis has the potential to yield significant health benefits. The WHO, together with the broader health sector, is intensifying efforts and has released a special report on Climate and Health with the COP29 Presidency, outlining priority actions for the global health community, governments, and policymakers, and calling for urgent responses to the ongoing climate and health crises.
“The report, which has undergone a wider consultation, calls for progress on human capital, with investment in the health workforce, and emphasises greening health infrastructure to promote healthy populations. It advocates for smart, healthy cities through improved urban planning, sustainable energy, transport, food systems, water and sanitation.
“To safeguard public health, countries must urgently scale up their Health National Adaptation Plans (HNAPs); New Zealand recently released its Health National Adaptation Plan 2024 – 2027 highlighting the need for concrete action and leadership in this area.
“This year, COP29 provides a critical opportunity to galvanise global efforts for stronger national action on climate and health. By scaling up commitments to both mitigation and adaptation, we can protect health systems, build resilience, and drive forward a healthier, more sustainable future and protect health and the environment – for us and for future generations.”
No conflicts of interest. Before joining ESR in 2024, Angela developed and led climate initiatives for the United Nations Population Fund. She has also served as an advisor to UNICEF Ethiopia and the UK Department for International Development (DFID), UK Aid (now FCDO) on health and climate.
Science Media Centre NZ
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