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Climate Commission Says Aim For Carbon-negative – Expert Reaction
The Climate Change Commission/He Pou a Rangi recommends New Zealand set more ambitious carbon targets.
The Commission says the current greenhouse gas targets are realistic and achievable, and that a loftier goal on both carbon and methane is also warranted. It also recommends including international shipping and aviation in our emission measurements.
The Science Media Centre asked experts to comment.
Dr. Christina Hood, Head of Compass Climate, comments:
“Solid analysis and advice from the Commission here, no surprises.
“It’s a sad indictment of politics that it is seen as “brave” for them to report the well-known reality that to avoid dangerous climate change the world needs to do three things:
- reduce gross fossil fuel and industrial emissions to near-zero (by over 90%)
- significantly reduce non-CO2 emissions like methane
- restore nature to draw down CO2 from the atmosphere (and draw down more with industrial removals).
“It’s been obvious for some time that New Zealand’s current 2050 targets don’t match up to this – as I’ve said before the Commission wouldn’t have been doing its job if it hadn’t recommended significant strengthening.
“I think the Commission’s energy scenarios don’t go far enough – the International Energy Agency’s net-zero energy scenario decarbonises energy, transport and industry faster than the Commission’s most ambitious scenario, and a true 1.5C-aligned scenario would look more like that.
“The Commission’s advice is not radical – if anything it’s a bit pedestrian.”
Conflict of interest statement: “My current work involves not-for-profit advisory on climate and energy issues.”
Robert McLachlan, Distinguished Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey University, comments:
“The Climate Change Commission has provided a thorough update on changes to international climate science and policy since the passage of the Zero Carbon Act in 2019. Its conclusion, that the 2050 target should be strengthened in three main ways, is clearly warranted. Overall, our current climate policies and action are not a sufficient contribution to the global effort to limit warming to 1.5ºC. Current trend warming is about 1.3ºC, increasing at about 0.3ºC per decade, and the increased impacts are clear. 1.5ºC will require negative emissions in the longer term.
“The three main recommendations are to change the 2050 target to be (i) net emissions of -20 Mt CO2e per year of long-lived gases; (ii) these to include the CO2 emissions of international aviation and shipping (but not yet their other climate impacts such as contrails); and (iii) a tightening of the target zone for biogenic methane emissions. Together these would bring New Zealand closer to “net zero all gases”, in line with what is needed for the goals of the Paris Agreement.
“International aviation and shipping emissions are estimated at 6.7 MtCO2 per year, about the same as the emissions of all passenger cars. The Commission did not find new (ie post-2019) international legal obligations to include these; their main evidence is that the temperature target of the Paris Agreement does include these, and that without their inclusion, the global target cannot be met. International aviation and shipping are vital to New Zealand and must become sustainable if they are to have a future.
“Amending the 2050 target in light of new evidence is an important part of the Zero Carbon Act and is integral to the Paris Agreement itself. In the UK, an initial target of -60% by 2050 was upped to -80% (in 2008) and then -100% in 2019.”
No conflict of interest.
Associate Professor Inga Smith, Department of Physics, University of Otago and Co-Director of He Kaupapa Hononga: Otago’s Climate Change Research Network, comments:
“It is great to see that the Climate Change Commission has included international shipping and aviation emissions in the 2050 target recommendation. If the emissions are not included in the target, then they will continue to grow.
“New Zealand does not even currently have a good estimate of what our emissions are from this sector, let alone have a plan to reduce them; this is reflected in the Commission’s report where they have had to estimate the emissions by drawing on various sources.
“The Climate Change Commission has not separated the gross international shipping and aviation components of the target, but rather made them part of the net target. This has potential drawbacks, but at least New Zealand’s international transport emissions should be better monitored in the future if the Government adopts the recommendations.”
No conflict of interest declared.
Dr Daniel Kingston, Senior Lecturer in Geography, and member of He Kaupapa Hononga/Otago Climate Change Network, University of Otago, comments:
“The case for more ambitious targets becomes more and more urgent each year. 2023 was the warmest year ever in the global instrumental temperature record by a substantial margin. 2024 is almost certain to end up even warmer than that, and also to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold.
“Although one year does not mean the threshold has been breached on a climatological basis, the warning signs are loud and clear, with the commission noting that more ambitious targets are needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
“We already have overwhelming evidence of the dangers posed by the current level of global warming with respect to recent extreme events causing damage to our roads, farms and homes. Delaying or reducing our response to the threat of climate change will only end up costing us more in the long term.”
No conflict of interest declared.
Science Media Centre NZ
Our aim is to promote accurate, evidence-based reporting on science and technology by helping the media work more closely with the scientific community.
The Science Media Centre is New Zealand's only trusted, independent source of information for the media on all issues related to science. Thousands of news stories providing context from and quoting New Zealand researchers have been published as a direct result of our work.
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