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NIWA’s Annual Climate Summary For 2024 – Expert Reaction
2024 was New Zealand’s 10th-warmest year on record, according to NIWA’s annual climate summary for 2024.
Of New Zealand’s 10 warmest years on record, eight have occurred since 2013. The summary says this ongoing warming trend — observed locally and around the world — is consistent with human-caused climate change. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have continued to rise, exceeding 420 parts per million (ppm) at NIWA’s monitoring station near Wellington in 2024.
The SMC asked experts to comment.
Dr Nick Cradock-Henry, Principal Scientist, GNS Science, comments:
“Global temperatures continued their upward trend in 2024, after an extended streak of exceptionally high monthly global mean temperatures.
“Nationally, according to data released today from NIWA, New Zealand recorded its 10th warmest year on record, with eight of those occurring since 2013.
“Unlike 2023 – which saw the twin climate disasters of the Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods and Cyclone Gabrielle; totaling over $10 billion in combined economic losses, and nearly $5 billion in insured losses – most of the severe weather events were more localised. Atmospheric rivers transporting moisture from the Pacific resulted in a number of local and regional states of emergency, causing flooding and disruption to critical infrastructure and lifelines on the South Island’s West Coast. In June, a similar atmospheric river resulted in significant rainfall and flooding in Wairoa, Hawke’s Bay. Over 400 homes were affected, in an area still recovering from the damaging effects of Cyclone Gabrielle.
“These findings from NIWA are, in the main, consistent with modelled projections both globally and nationally. New Zealand was 1.5 degrees above the long-term average in 2024, and the trend towards increased rainfall in western regions, and hotter, generally drier conditions in the east continues. These regionally pronounced, and uneven effects are likely to continue, with implications for land and water management, rural and urban centres, biodiversity, and of course, hazards and risk management. The climate is continuing to warm, and there is considerable variability in these conditions manifest at local and regional scales.
“The year’s temperature and rainfall record is (yet) again, a reminder that stationarity is dead. The long-term, relatively stable conditions that we have come to rely on, plan around and design for, are no more. Natural systems – including the climate – no longer operate within an unchanging envelope of variability; ‘wait-and-see’ what the future holds is unsuitable for coping with, responding to, and managing change. Enhancing resilience and accelerating adaptation action to safeguard lives and livelihoods will be an essential part of New Zealand’s response planning, going forward, regardless of how 2025 unfolds.”
No conflict of interest.
Dr James Renwick, Professor of Physical Geography, Victoria University of Wellington, comments:
“The past year has seen a mixed bag of weather and climate over the motu. As always, the country’s landforms and the ever-present westerly winds defined the spread of statistics – wettest on average in the western South Island, driest and sunniest in the east and north, and so on.
“For temperature, the year ended on a high note with a very warm December (5th warmest on record). The year as a whole though came in at 10th warmest on record, while the globe is sure to be named as the warmest year on record. On an annual basis, local temperature variations often do not track the global numbers, because of regional influences such things as the El Niño/La Niña cycle, and the variability of the Southern Ocean westerly wind belt and local ocean circulation bringing warmer and cooler conditions from one year to the next. Yet, we see a clear match when we compare the long-term trends between New Zealand and the globe, both obviously warming.
“There were significant floods both in the west and east at different times of year, causing infrastructure damage and often heartache for several communities. The wet events tended to be very wet, with several wettest-day records set around the country. This is again to be expected in a warming climate, as the atmosphere becomes increasingly loaded with moisture.
“The NIWA annual climate summary, the underlying observational network and team of scientists analysing the data, are a critical part of the country’s science infrastructure. On-going measurement of what’s happening on the ground is crucial to understanding how our climate is changing and how we adapt. I look forward to seeing how 2025 plays out!”
Conflict of interest statement: I receive funding from MBIE and other agencies to study climate change. I was an author on the past three Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I was a Commissioner with the New Zealand Climate Change Commission.
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