UC-led Study Provides New Insights Into Ross Ice Shelf Melt

Led by Dr Daniel Price of Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha | University of Canterbury (UC’s) School of Earth and Environment, the research team spent five summer seasons between 2015 and 2020 collecting detailed radar measurements across 1,000 km of the Ross Ice Shelf, the largest ice shelf in Antarctica.

The research aimed to measure changes in ice thickness and basal melt—melting that occurs at the base of a glacier or ice shelf—to establish a precise baseline to support future climate predictions.

“Using ground-based radar, we can measure really small changes in ice thickness over time. It tells us where melting is happening at the base of the ice shelf, providing valuable insight to help refine future climate and sea-level rise predictions,” Dr Price says.

The new research shows that melt rates vary across the ice shelf which could be vulnerable to a warming Southern Ocean.

“It’s the first time we’ve really got a good sense of just how far warm water is penetrating,” Dr Price explains. “We’re talking about 150 to 170 kilometres under the front of the ice shelf in some cases.”

By providing a baseline, the research can help inform ocean and ice sheet models used to predict future change, and in turn sea-level rise, and supports international efforts to understand climate-related changes in polar regions, contributing to a broader international effort to better understand a complex system.

“You have to think about these measurements as a piece of the puzzle,” he says. “All of our work contributes to building a better understanding of a very complicated system that is changing.

“For the Ross Ice Shelf, at the moment things are stable, but as we heat the planet things can change quickly.”

The project was carried out with the support of Antarctica New Zealand, whose logistical support was essential.

“Without that traverse capability provided by Antarctica New Zealand, we wouldn’t have been able to do this,” Dr Price says. “They do a huge amount of work to facilitate this kind of science.”

He adds that understanding Antarctic ice shelf dynamics is not just a scientific goal — it has global significance.

“The climate crisis is a threat to civilisation. We have built a global society with static infrastructure that assumes no change, but we are now interfering with that system. Sea levels are rising, and we need to improve forecasts so we can effectively plan,” he says.

“There’s still a lot of uncertainty around how Antarctica will respond to climate change, and what happens there will have large ramifications not just for New Zealand, but for the rest of the planet."

The research strengthens New Zealand’s contribution to Antarctic science and offers a new dataset to inform sea-level rise models and long-term global climate planning.

Watch the video here: Ross Ice Shelf Basal Melting – 2 Minute Science – Joe Snodgrass 

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