Cablegate: Montenegro Referendum: Rules of the Game Are

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PP RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0322/01 0610738
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 020738Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8085
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000322

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW
SUBJECT: Montenegro Referendum: Rules of the Game Are
Set

REF: Belgrade 299

Summary
-------

1. (SBU) The Montenegrin parliament has adopted the EU-
proposed ground rules for the independence referendum,
which will be held 21 May. Nonetheless, the pro-
independence government strongly complained that the
EU-recommended 55 percent super-majority is unfair and
more stringent than existing European standards. Some
government representatives have indicated that they
will continue to actively oppose the State Union if the
pro-independence movement gains over 50%, but less than
55%. Solana plans to discuss such a "grey zone"
scenario with PM Djukanovic, and later opposition
leader Bulatovic, in the next two weeks. End Summary.

The EU Sets the Rules
---------------------

2. (U) Late on 1 March, the Montenegrin parliament
adopted the Law on Referendums, which establishes the
parameters of the independence referendum and reflects
the formal recommendations that the EU supported at
Monday's GAERC. The legislation requires 50 percent of
registered voters to participate and 55 percent of
those who participate to approve the referendum for it
to be valid. The law also sets the date as 21 May,
approves international observation, postpones local
elections until the parliamentary election slated for
October, and formalizes a variety of additional, less-
controversial guidelines. Additionally, Ambassador
Lajcak, the EU's special envoy for the referendum, told
emboffs that the pro-Union opposition has dropped its
demand that the complicated requirements for approving
a referendum as outlined by the Milosevic-era
constitution be fulfilled.

3. (U) Lajcak additionally informed us that two
outstanding issues remained, although they would be
resolved soon. He said that the law requires
parliament to approve an international representative
to chair the Republic Election Commission by March 11.
Brussels will recommend three candidates to Podgorica
who would be EU senior diplomats and have legal
backgrounds, regional knowledge, and preferably speak
Serbian. Lajcak also noted that an agreement on
referendum financing was nearly complete. The GoM had
Euro 5 million for elections in its CY2006 budget. The
EU is proposing that Podgorica spend three million on
election/referendum administration and infrastructure.
The two sides will divide an additional one million for
referendum campaigning and one million for
parliamentary elections.

4. (SBU) [Comment: Lajcak said that Javier Solana has
invited Prime Minister Djukanovic and opposition leader
Predrag Bulatovic to Brussels on 8 March and 15 March
respectively. The purpose of these meetings is to
reward them for their political maturity and to discuss
the political implications of a grey zone result (i.e.-
if the pro-Independence side receives a majority of
votes cast, but does not surpass 55 percent). Lajcak
added that his official mandate ended upon passage of
the referendum law, but both sides have requested his
continued participation. Coincidentally, Lajcak fits
the requirements of the Chair of the Republic Election
Board almost perfectly. End Comment].

The Government: Angry, but Accepting
------------------------------------

5. (SBU) Clearly distraught pro-independence
interlocutors openly expressed their hostility toward
the EU's requirement for a 55 percent super-majority.
They described the measure as "undemocratic" and that
it violated the "fundamental principle of equality of
voting rights." Miodrag Vukovic, the parliamentary whip
for the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS),
said his party ultimately accepted the measure as a
necessity to maintain Montenegro's path toward EU
accession. Ivan Brajovic, Vice President of the Social
Democratic Party (the junior coalition partner), said
that his staunchly pro-independence party would not
accept the EU requirements, but did so knowing that its
decision would not mpede passage of the law.
Nonetheless, Ivan Lekoic, Chef d'Cabinet of President
Vujanovic, commeted that Djukanovic did a good job
calming the stuation and moving the pro-independnce

BELGRADE 00000322 002 OF 002

side to support the EU proposal.

6. (U) In discussions with emboffs, Vukovic, Brajovic,
and Branko Lukovac, Leader of the Movement for
Independence, said that they remained confident that
their side would receive more than 55 percent of the
vote. Nonetheless, they had clearly spent considerable
time focusing on a potential response to a grey zone
result. Vukovic said that the DPS was considering a
variety of reactions, although noted that many party
leaders, during an emotionally charged meeting,
recommended that the GOM declare independence
immediately in case of a grey zone result, regardless
of the repercussions. Brajovic and Lukovac suggested
that their supporters held similar sentiments.

The Opposition: Now We Have a Chance
------------------------------------

7. (U) The opposition forces have generally welcomed
the EU recommendations and Srdjan Bozovic, Deputy Head
of the Socialist People's Party, told emboffs that it
"gives the opposition a real chance to win." The new
law addresses many of the pro-Union forces' concerns
about access to media, campaign financing, and a
continued EU presence. He still complained, however,
about the possible influx of private monies to support
the pro-independence forces. Bozovic refused to
acknowledge a potential grey zone or that the
opposition would need to make a special effort to reach
out to pro-independence voters in case of a grey zone
result. Additionally, he acknowledged that the
opposition parties had increased their cooperation,
which would be needed for the pro-union side to
prevail. He said that the recent decision of the
Serbian People's Party to end its isolation and work
with the other opposition forces was welcome.

The Ethnic-Albanian Parties: An Important Sideshow
--------------------------------------------- -----

8. (U) Emboffs met with the leaders of the two main
ethnic-Albanian political parties, between whom
relations have grown distant. Mehmet Barthi, Leader of
the Democratic League of Albanians has demanded that
Djukanovic agree--in writing--to several long-standing
demands of his constituents. Otherwise, he intends to
advise them to abstain, which he acknowledges is, in
essence, a pro-Union vote. Ferhat Dinosa, leader of
the Democratic Union of Albanians and a member of the
government, contends that Barthi's politicking is
poorly timed and that he should not jeopardize
independence from Serbia--a key goal for all ethnic-
Albanian Montenegrins--for some local, parochial
interests. Although Barthi controls only about 4,000-
5,000 ethnic-Albanian votes, these votes could prove
crucial if the referendum is as tight as some predict.
Nonetheless, pundits suggest that Barthi will not
recommend any course of action to his supporters that
will lead to a closer union with Belgrade and that this
is a game of brinkmanship with Djukanovic. Barthi
himself admitted that he was doubtful that his
constituents would follow such a directive.

Comment
-------

9. (SBU) The super-majority and other agreements that
the EU brokered have injected a sense of uncertainty
about the referendum outcome. The independence bloc
remains the favorite, with its superior party machinery
and significantly larger sources of funds. To get more
than 45 percent of the vote, the pro-Union opposition
will need to demonstrate much greater unity than it has
shown in the past, overcome its former advocacy of a
boycott, and reach out to non-parliamentary opposition
parties -- including Seselj's Radicals. A grey zone
result is quite possible and would cause further
disruptions in the State Union relationship as well as
inside Montenegro. This means that the EU will then
need to continue its brokering role to look for an
effective working relationship between the two
republics. The ambassador will discuss such
contingency planning in his next meeting with EU Envoy
Lajcak.

POLT

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