Cablegate: Poll Shows Strong Support for President Basescu, at Pm
VZCZCXRO5553
PP RUEHAST
DE RUEHBM #1115/01 1921548
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111548Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4797
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001115
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SOCI RO
SUBJECT: POLL SHOWS STRONG SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT BASESCU, AT PM
TARICEANU'S EXPENSE
BUCHAREST 00001115 001.2 OF 002
1. Summary: (SBU) A July opinion poll carried out by The National
Institute for Polling and Marketing Studies (INSOMAR) revealed
continued high public support for President Traian Basescu and
relatively low support for Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu,
despite the latter's recent attempt to increase his standing by
announcing support for withdrawal of Romanian troops from Iraq.
Basescu's Democratic Party (PD) also remained far ahead of
Tariceanu's National Liberal Party (PNL). About 54% of the
respondents said they did not support maintaining Romanian troops in
foreign conflict zones. Respondents expressed much confidence in
the institutions of the church and army, but very little in
political parties, parliament, and the government. The poll also
indicated rising popularity of extreme nationalist politician and
soccer team owner Gigi Becali. End Summary.
2. (U) The poll was conducted between July 1 and July 5 among 1134
respondents over the age of 18, with a margin of error of 2.9
percent. On many issues, results are compared to responses to the
same question asked in a similar May INSOMAR poll. Results were
published in the Social Democratic Party (PSD) leaning daily
"Adeverul" and nationalist daily "Ziua." INSOMAR has been
associated with the PSD in the past.
3. (U) Relevant poll results are presented below:
- How satisfied are you with the performance of Traian Basescu as
president of Romania?
May July Change
Total Satisfied (%) 63 57 -6
- How satisfied are you with the performance of the government led
by Calin Popescu Tariceanu?
May July Change
Total Satisfied (%) 28 26 -1
- How satisfied are you with the performance of Calin Popescu
Tariceanu as Prime Minister?
May July Change
Total Satisfied (%) 27 26 -1
- "Recently, PM Calin Popescu Tariceanu and President Traian Basescu
have expressed completely different positions on problems of
national interest. Which one is more right?"
President Basescu 47 percent
Prime Minister Tariceanu 10
Neither 43
- If elections would be held next Sunday the preferences would be:
DA Alliance (PD & PNL) 48 percent
Social Democratic Party (PSD) 20
Greater Romania Party (PRM) 15
New Generation Party (PNG) 7
Hungarian Democratic Union (UDMR) 5
National Initiative (PIN) 2
Conservative Party (PC) 1.4
- Electoral options if parties would compete individually:
Democratic Party (PD) 36 percent
Social Democratic Party (PSD) 20
Greater Romania Party (PRM) 15
National Liberal Party (PNL) 13
New Generation Party (PNG) 7
Hungarian Democratic Union (UDMR) 5
National Initiative (PIN) 2
Consrvative Party (PC) 1.4
- Public confidence in political personalities:
May July Change
Traian Basescu 56 53 -3
(President)
Mona Musca 39 44 +5
(Formr PNL Culture Minister)
Theodor Stolojan 38 39 +1
(Presidential Advisor)
Gigi Becali 29 33 +4
(PNG leader/Pro soccer team owner)
Mircea Geoana 28 21 -7
(PSD leader/Senator)
Emil Boc 22 26 +4
(Cluj Mayor/PD president)
Vadim Tudor 22 24 +2
(PRM leader)
BUCHAREST 00001115 002.2 OF 002
Calin P. Tariceanu 21 20 -1
(Prime Minister)
Dan Voiculescu 12 11 -1
(PC Leader/Businessman)
Marko Bela 11 11 =
(UDMR leader/Vice Premier)
Adriean Videanu 13 13 =
(Bucharest Mayor/PD Vice President)
Ion Iliescu 19 19 =
(Former President/PSD member)
Adrian Nastase 12 12 =
(Former PM/PSD member)
Petre Roman 13 12 -1
(Former PM/Independent politican)
Cosmin Gusa 10 11 +1
(PIN leader/Deputy)
- Confidence in government ministers:
Interior Minister Vasile Blaga 34 Percent
Foreign Minister Mihai Razvan Ungureanu 32
Justice Minister Monica Macovei 29
Defense Minister Teodor Atanasiu 23
Integration Minister Anca Boagiu 23
Agricultural Minister Gheorghe Flutur 20
Transportation Minister Radu Berceanu 20
Environmental Minister Sulfina Barbu 20
Finance Minister Sebastian Vladescu 17
- Levels of support for maintaining Romanian troops in foreign
conflict zones:
Totally agree 11 Percent
Generally agree 35
Not really agree 29
Definitely disagree 25
- "In what measure do you believe there is a risk for any future
terrorist attacks in Romania?"
Very high 11 Percent
Fairly high 36
Not so high 37
Very low 16
- Public confidence in institutions:
Church 87 Percent
Army 77
Media 65
Gendarmes 60
President 55
Romanian Intelligence Service 47
Politicians 38
Justice 35
Unions 25
Government 20
Parliament 17
Political Parties 16
4. (SBU) Comment. Prime Minister Tariceanu's recent public call for
a withdrawal of Romanian troops from Iraq does not appear to have
boosted his polling figures. Basescu has seen a modest decline in
support in recent months, but nonetheless remains the most popular
politician in the country. PSD President Mircea Geoana's popularity,
on the other hand, seems to be falling markedly. Also of note is the
rising popularity of extreme nationalist New Generation Party (PNG)
leader and Bucharest soccer team owner Gigi Becali, who is the
fourth most popular political figure according to this survey. A
controversial figure who has overtly spoken out against minority
groups and has drawn from fascist images, Becali has increasingly
come to compete with Vadim Tudor for supporters at the far right of
the political spectrum. Post will report further on this
development septel. End comment.
5. (U) AmEmbassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are available on
the Bucharest SIPRNET Website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest.
Taubman