Cablegate: Middle East; Fidel Castro; Mercosur and Venezuela;
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OO RUEHWEB
DE RUEHBU #1617/01 2021247
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 211247Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5306
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT
UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001617
SIPDIS
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MIDDLE EAST; FIDEL CASTRO; MERCOSUR AND VENEZUELA;
07/20/06
1. SUMMARY STATEMENT
Today's most important international stories include the war in the
Middle East; Fidel Castro's probable visit to Argentina and the
Cuban political transition; and Venezuela's incorporation into
Mercosur.
2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES
- "The US agrees with Israel that the offensive should continue one
more week"
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (07/20) "According to government
officials from the US, Israel and the EU, despite the increasing
international pressure for a ceasefire, the US and Israel have
agreed that the military offensive against Hezbollah could extend
one more week before starting negotiations that could lead to a
truce.
"The UN and the EU are pressuring for a ceasefire in Lebanon as soon
as possible. However, US President Bush supports the Israeli
government's decision to weaken Hezbollah as much as possible as a
prior step to diplomatic talks.
"The Republican administration suggested that only after the
military objective is reached would Condoleezza Rice travel to the
region, which is seen by her European counterparts as a highly risky
bet of unpredictable consequences."
- "The US is reported to let Israel continue attacking for at least
one more week"
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
writes (07/20) "The US has granted Israel at least one week to
finish destroying Hezbollah in Lebanon. US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice will not travel to the region unless the work has
been done. Is this the best way to defend US interests in the Middle
East?
"All official analysts agree that destroying Hezbollah is necessary.
The White House's spokesperson, Tony Snow, said that the Bush
administration does not want to return to the point when violence
broke out. Snow said, 'A ceasefire would leave the terrorist
infrastructure intact, and this is unacceptable.' Bush himself said
that Hezbollah, the root of the problem, should be destroyed.
"Nevertheless, independent analysts believe that, in the long run,
this strategy will severely damage US interests.
"... Israel's attack against Lebanon represents the end of Bush's
policy of democratization of the Middle East...
"According to analysts, the US will even lose the confidence of
moderate Arabs for having abandoned the Lebanon government to its
luck."
- "Taking on the holy warrior"
James Neilson, contributor to liberal, English-language "Buenos
Aires Herald," writes (07/20) "... The warriors of Hezbollah and
Hamas think time is on their side. They already have the ability to
hit Haifa and perhaps Tel Aviv and Jerusalem with missiles capable
of causing a great deal of damage.
"Thanks to their backers in Iran and Syria, unless they are
eliminated, they could soon dispose of much nastier weapons. Can
Israel negotiate with them with the aim of assuaging their
grievances? As they are against negotiations with the 'Zionist
entity' on principle, such talks as do take place serve merely to
strengthen them.
"And meanwhile, the Iranians, whose contempt for the West seems
boundless, are busily working on their nuclear arsenal.
"Aware of this, some think that the ayatollahs got their proxies in
Lebanon and Gaza to goad Israel into action in order to distract the
attention of the rest of the world, especially the US, thus allowing
them to edge nearer towards their goal.
"If that indeed is their game, they may have miscalculated. People
in high places are coming to the conclusion that what we are seeing
is the start of a jihadist offensive, so the long awaited showdown
between the US and Iran could take place at any moment."
- "Victims and murderers, equally punished"
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed page by Silvia Bleichmar, a
psychoanalyst, who writes (07/209 "... Paradoxically enough, Israel,
as well as Zidane in the World Football Cup, has lost focus of what
it represents for the world. And it performs actions that merge us
in a lack of hope...
"The Palestinian people are not an invention of the postwar. Even
when their foundation was defined by exclusion, once foundation took
place, their existence is not subject to debate. Once founded, the
State of Israel also has the right to settle down on the lands it
inherited.
"Every terrorist action, whether performed by Hamas or the State of
Israel, raises an ungrounded conflict without political or historic
rationality."
- "Fidel, Chavez and a close transition"
Business-financial "El Cronista" carries an opinion piece by
political analyst Jorge Castro, who writes (07/20) "Commander Fidel
Castro will turn 80 in August. His political figure summarizes the
entire current Cuban system of power. There is no political
institution on the island opposing his will. All of them are
instruments of his extraordinary power...
"His possible visit (to Argentina) coincides with a turning point in
South America's political life. The US has withdrawn from the region
and is focusing all its efforts on the struggle against
transnational terrorism, particularly in the Middle East (Iraq).
"To the US withdrawal, the Brazilian paralysis adds itself - Brazil
tried to replace the US hegemony in the region. The outcome of all
this is a lack of leadership and a vacuum of power in the region,
which favors Lieutenant Colonel Hugo Chavez's expansionist
strategist - Chavez is Fidel's best disciple for the last 30 years.
"... Fidel Castro's sense of reality has made him leave behind his
'Marxist-Leninist' ideology. He only maintains his deep anti-US
feeling, which is expressed today in a nationalistic and
anti-globalization conviction. His death will mean the beginning of
transition."
- "The debate of Mercosur"
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed page by contributor
Natalio R. Botana, who writes (07/20) "There is a debate in
Mercosur... One of the problems is related to the uncertainty
unleashed by Venezuela's incorporation into Mercosur...
"Venezuela's incorporation has changed the focus of the discussion
for two main reasons. First and foremost, Venezuela is an
increasingly important oil power. While the war in the Middle East
continues, the power of South American oil and gas will continue
growing.
"... The history of integration among democratic countries reveals
that success is achieved when integration is a project shared by
governments and opposition sectors. The 'Bolivarian republic' of
Venezuela is a clear demonstration that the opposition has very
little to do there - it does not participate in elections..."
3. EDITORIALS
- "Humanitarian catastrophe"
Conservative "La Prensa" editorializes (07/20) "The battle unleashed
by Israel in Lebanon after Hezbollah's new offensive has become a
serious humanitarian catastrophe rather than another confrontation
on an unstable border. This humanitarian catastrophe could worsen as
the escalation of violence deepens.
"When Hezbollah crossed all political limits by expanding its
military operations outside of the Chebbaa area and killing and
kidnapping the Israeli soldiers, it was intolerable for the Israeli
government, which had a parallel offensive from Hamas, and there was
obviously coordination between the two sectors..."
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website
at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires
LLORENS