Cablegate: Daily Summary of Japanese Press 10/20/06
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CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 10/20/06
INDEX:
(1) Interview with University of Shizuoka Prof. Shunji Hiraiwa --
How will the US respond to DPRK's nuclear test? (Part 2-
conclusion): Military action taken if nuclear weapons were on verge
of proliferation
(2) Editorial: Japan, US, ROK should rally unity and pressure North
Korea
(3) Editorial: Nuclear debate must be conducted freely
(4) Editorial: Foreign Minister Aso's Diet reply inappropriate
(5) Diet debate on regional contingency: DPJ's Ozawa stresses Japan
needs principles to take part in int'l contributions; Premier vows
to use Japan-US alliance for int'l cooperation
(6) Lower House by-election in Osaka No. 9 district is battle to
take the enemy's camp between LDP and Minshuto
ARTICLES:
(1) Interview with University of Shizuoka Prof. Shunji Hiraiwa --
How will the US respond to DPRK's nuclear test? (Part 2-
conclusion): Military action taken if nuclear weapons were on verge
of proliferation
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 29) (Abridged)
October 13, 2006
Tsuyoshi Yamakawa, Yoichi Takeuchi
SIPDIS
-- What are your views on America's North Korea policy?
Hiraiwa: "North Korea broke the 1994 Agreed Framework, a system
calling on Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear programs and in return
for that, Washington agreed to provide heavy oil to the North. But
there were some early indications that the US allowed the North
Koreans leeway to break away from the arrangement. It seems to me
that the Bush administration wanted to find ways to raise objections
to the US-DPRK agreement signed by the Clinton administration.
Following the Agreed Framework, the six-party talks were put in
motion, but the upshot of that is what we are now seeing. My
conclusion is that although the Agreed Framework aimed at bringing
the North's nuclear programs under control, it failed to function."
-- Why is the US unwilling to respond to direct talks with the North
Koreans?
"President Bush detests General Secretary Kim Jong Il, so he is
reluctant to deal directly with him. This comes presumably from the
president's strong Christian sense of justice; he finds Kim, whose
ambition is to develop a nuclear arsenal while his people are
starving to death, completely unacceptable. Mr. Bush also seems to
dislike being held responsible unilaterally for the framework, which
was agreed on between the US and North Korea alone during the
Clinton administration. (Mr. Bush) surely feels his country has been
deceived by North Korea.
-- The US launched an armed attack against Iraq citing the threat of
weapons of mass destruction (WMD), even though it was found
afterwards that no WMD had existed in Iraq. The US, however, does
TOKYO 00006125 002 OF 010
not strike North Korea, which declared it conducted a nuclear test.
Isn't this a double standard?
"The military balance in the Middle East affects Israel, a most
important country for the US, and the Jewish lobby has a powerful
influence in US politics. For the US, protecting Israel's interests
is a top priority task. In contrast, when it comes to policy toward
Asia, the US its relations with China and South Korea to worry
about. If it were to take military action against the North, its
relations with China and South Korea would collapse. (North Korea)
is not that important for the US to take such a risk.
"As a means of maintaining the military balance in East Asia, the US
opted to have China take the lead and set up a framework for
six-party talks. Washington wants to keep Beijing responsible to the
end of this North Korea chapter, so it is trying to maintain the
six-party framework. The consensus of the international community is
to use heightened pressure to get North Korea back to the six-party
talks and on the dialogue track."
Effectiveness of Japan's solo sanctions questionable
-- China and South Korea are vehemently opposing the use of armed
force against North Korea. Why?
"For China and South Korea, a weak North Korea is more of a threat
than its aggressive nature. In other words, Pyongyang would never
set off a nuclear weapon against China or South Korea, but if the
military balance in East Asia were upset by a huge outflow of
refugees in the wake of the collapse of North Korea, it would pose a
threat to the security of China and South Korea.
-- Do you think the US will rule out a military attack in the
future, as well?
"At this point, I don't think it will go that far. Should the North
move to proliferate nuclear weapons, the case would grow similar to
that of the Middle East. If Washington judges that nuclear weapons
would be transferred to terrorists and that such would have a grave
impact on the military balance in the Middle East centering on
Israel, or if Washington judges that the US mainland will face a
nuclear crisis, no doubt the US would use its military option."
(2) Editorial: Japan, US, ROK should rally unity and pressure North
Korea
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)
October 20, 2006
North Korea's nuclear test has made concerned countries bustle about
in a rush of international meetings. Chinese State Councilor Tang
Jiaxuan (former foreign minister) visited North Korea, met with
General Secretary Kim Jong Il to conveyed President Hu Jintao's
views. Meanwhile, in Seoul, the foreign ministers of Japan, the
United States, and South Korea confirmed in a meeting that the three
countries would work together to implement United Nations Security
Council Resolution 1718 in order to pressure Pyongyang to give up
its nuclear programs.
What is important now is for Japan, the US, and South Korea to line
up and go along with China. In this regard, the trilateral foreign
ministerial session between Japan, the US, and South Korea would be
viewed as a step forward, but the goal is to have the North abandon
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its nuclear programs. It must not be allowed at any price to make a
half-baked compromise that could culminate in recognizing the North
in effect as a nuclear power.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, after meeting with Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe yesterday morning, headed for Seoul. The purpose
of the trilateral foreign ministerial with Foreign Minister Taro Aso
and South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Ban Ki Moon
was first of all for the US to confirm it will meet the obligations
to defend Japan and South Korea and also to have South Korea, which
has adopted the engagement policy or the sunshine policy, share the
sense of crisis with Japan and the US.
Japan and South Korea are both allies of the US, and the two
countries had held director-general-level talks for a while in the
past, but after South Korea reacted sharply to former Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, US Assistant
Secretary of State Christopher Hill recently made a number of visits
SIPDIS
to Japan and South Korea. Prime Minister Abe's recent trip to South
Korea, which helped improve relations with South Korea, and also the
North's nuclear test have forced Japan, the US, and South Korea to
reaffirm trilateral unity.
The key lies in South Korea. An unconditional return by North Korea
to the six-party talks is among the items called for by UNSC
Resolution 1718. The resolution also demands that North Korea
comprehensively abandon nuclear and missile development programs in
an unconditional, verifiable, and irreversible manner.
Japan and the US will not accept North Korea's return to the
six-party talks unless it vows to do so. The two countries fear that
the North will simply continue to play with the international
community -- as it repeatedly did before -- by using its
participation in the six-party talks as a diplomatic card, while
maintaining its missile and nuclear technology.
An unconditional return by the North to the six-party talks is a
means to have it abandon its nuclear programs, but that is not the
goal at all. This matter does not need to be confirmed between Japan
and the US, because it is self-evident for the two countries, but it
is essential for South Korea to go along with Japan and the US on
this matter in order to resolve the current crisis.
Ban, who is to take office as UN secretary-general, told Rice that
he would assume a tough stance toward the North and suggested, for
instance, a review of the Mount Kumgangsan tourism project, but
President Roh Moo Hyun's way of thinking remains open to question.
Rice will travel to China today. China, as evidenced by Tang's
recent moves, is feeling a rising sense of crisis. Japan, the US,
China, and South Korea need to further tighten the cordon around
North Korea, involving Russia.
(3) Editorial: Nuclear debate must be conducted freely
SANKEI (Page 2) (Full)
October 20, 2006
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe indicated that government and Liberal
Democratic Party panels would never discuss the option of possessing
nuclear weapons. He also said: "Individual lawmakers may discuss the
matter. Freedom of speech is guaranteed in Japan."
Facing the threat from North Korean, which has conducted a nuclear
TOKYO 00006125 004 OF 010
test, Japan's peace and stability hinges on the United States'
nuclear umbrella.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated: "The United States
will fulfill its responsibility (of defending Japan under) the
US-Japan Security Treaty. The United States has the will and the
capability to meet the full range of its deterrent and security
commitments to Japan." We welcome Rice's statement that declared at
home and abroad that America's deterrent for the security of Japan
is effective.
But looking into its future, Japan still needs to discuss a variety
of options. The idea of possessing nuclear weapons was actively
discussed at the Diet in the past.
In March 1959, Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi said before the Upper
House Budget Committee: "As policy, Japan will not possess nuclear
weapons, but under the Constitution, the country is allowed to
posses nuclear weapons of the minimal level for self-defense." There
has been no change in the government's position that possessing
small nuclear weapons was constitutional.
Japan subsequently adopted the three non-nuclear principles of not
producing, possessing or allowing nuclear weapons on Japanese soil,
closing the door to nuclear polity. Questions would naturally arise
if Japan is safe as it is.
In September, the Institute for International Policy Studies (IIPS)
chaired by former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone released a set of
proposals urging Japan to remain firm as a non-nuclear power, make
efforts to boost the NPT system, and study the nuclear issue in
preparation for future international sea-change. The IIPS proposals
apparently reflect public concern.
LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Shoichi Nakagawa also called
for earnest discussion on how Japan can counter North Korea without
possessing nuclear weapons. There is no doubt that Nakagawa proposed
it from the same context.
Nakagawa's statement has drawn fire mostly from opposition party
members, saying that discussing a nuclear option itself would cause
the international community to harbor doubts about Japan.
Freedom of speech must not be suppressed. Nuclear debate is not an
absolute taboo. As long as freedom of speech is suppressed, Japan
will not be able to grow into a normal country.
(4) Editorial: Foreign Minister Aso's Diet reply inappropriate
ASAHI (Page 3) (Full)
October 20, 2006
How reckless and thoughtless was his remark! We find what Foreign
Minister Taro Aso said in the Diet about Japan considering the
possession of nuclear weapons to have been utterly unacceptable.
Here is what he said:
"When a neighboring country has come to possess (nuclear weapons), I
think it is important to conduct a variety of discussions, as one
idea."
"Rather than staying ignorant, one option might be to consider
TOKYO 00006125 005 OF 010
thoroughly whether we want to determine to possess (nuclear weapons)
or not."
Does he want to see Japan begin discussing the option of going
nuclear? Does he want to be the one setting off the debate?
The matter needs no prompting from him, for it is already being
discussed freely. A nuclear deterrent is one of the central themes
in debates on international politics.
Needless to say, the predominant view among the Japanese public
rejects a nuclear option. But some scholars believe that just
discussing the option helps Japan check China, the United States,
and other countries.
But a foreign minister making remarks to give a boost to the nuclear
debate is a different story altogether.
The government's consistent stance has been to uphold the three
non-nuclear principles of not possessing, producing, or allowing
nuclear weapons on Japanese soil. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe himself
said, "We are through with the matter."
A mention of the nuclear debate by the country's top diplomat might
make other countries speculate Japan would change its policy,
sending out the wrong message to the international community.
When LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Shoichi Nakagawa made a
similar statement earlier, news whirled around the world. Amid
growing global concern for such countries as Japan and South Korea
going nuclear following North Korea as part of a "nuclear domino
effect," there is every reason for such remarks to draw attention.
Does Aso want to add fuel to global concern? We doubt the common
sense of the foreign minister, who repeatedly has made controversial
remarks on the one hand, while voicing support for the three
non-nuclear rules on the other.
The international community is united to apply pressure on North
Korea to make it get rid of its nuclear programs in compliance with
the UN resolution. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is on a
whirlwind tour of Japan, South Korea, and China. Chinese State
Councilor Tang Jiaxuan traveled to Pyongyang to try to persuade
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to abandon nuclear ambitions.
Earnest diplomatic efforts are underway.
Japan's foreign minister must discuss why Japan does not possess
nuclear weapons and why it is committed to nonproliferation rather
than to make comments fueling the nuclear argument.
Coming under criticism, Aso said, "I don't subscribe to the idea of
suppressing freedom of speech." He must not shift the focus of the
argument. The point here is that those remarks are inappropriate for
persons in key positions in the government and the ruling coalition.
It is not about freedom of speech.
The government and the ruling coalition must not send out the wrong
message when the rest of the world is trying to come up with
convincing ideas to make North Korea abandon its nuclear ambitions.
(5) Diet debate on regional contingency: DPJ's Ozawa stresses Japan
needs principles to take part in int'l contributions; Premier vows
to use Japan-US alliance for int'l cooperation
TOKYO 00006125 006 OF 010
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 6) (Full)
October 19, 2006
The following is a gist of one-on-one debate between party leaders
in the Diet from yesterday's joint meeting of the House of
Representatives and the House of Councillors on Japan's fundamental
policies.
Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) President Ichiro Ozawa: North
Korea's recent nuclear test tramples on the international
community's desire for peace, and it's a challenging act. I have no
objection at all to taking resolute, severe counteractions against
such conduct. In my eyes, however, the government appears to be
playing it by ear in a makeshift manner. Such a way of doing things
is confusing the government's counteractions. What's the basic
nature of action to be taken in response to situations that are
anticipated in the Law Concerning Measures to Ensure Japan's Peace
and Security in the Event of Situations in Areas Surrounding Japan
(or the so-called "regional contingency law"), and what's the basic
nature of action to be taken in conformity with the international
community's consent?
Prime Minister Abe (president of the ruling Liberal Democratic
Party): The "situations" stipulated in the regional contingency
security law are defined as situations which, if left unattended,
are feared to result in an armed attack against Japan, and the
government has exemplified six cases. The regional contingency law
stipulates how Japan-based on its bilateral alliance with the United
States as the bedrock of Japan's foreign and security policies-will
respond to such situations in areas surrounding Japan. At the same
time, the United Nations (Security Council) has now adopted an
enforceable resolution that incorporates severe steps against North
Korea's challenging conduct. In order to have the resolution
translated into action, Japan will cooperate in the international
community. We're studying what Japan can do while teaming up and
consulting with other countries concerned. We shouldn't think
separately of the Japan-US alliance and the international
community's efforts as two different things. Instead, we should
utilize the Japan-US alliance in our cooperation with the
international community. In the international community's concerted
efforts, we need to have North Korea understand that the situation
will go from bad to worse if that country fails to answer the
international community's concern and takes even more provocative
action. Japan is expected to work together with the international
community while keeping in close touch with the United States, which
is an ally of Japan.
Ozawa: The regional contingency law anticipates emergencies in
Japan. The UNSC resolution is for the international community to
impose sanctions against conducts that disturb the peace of the
international community. There's something difficult about the idea
of applying the law-which is for emergencies in Japan-to the act of
imposing sanctions in conformity with Article 41 of the United
Nations Charter's Chapter 7. Some people may ask, "Then, what do you
think we should do?" That's simple and clear. The government has
only to make it a basic principle for Japan to participate in the
international community's joint efforts. The government doesn't have
anything like that principle, so the government will try to apply
the notion of a regional contingency just because Japan was asked by
the United States. The Japan-US alliance is important, of course.
However, Japan and the United States alone cannot defend the global
peace. The Japan-US Security Treaty has its own limit. Its
TOKYO 00006125 007 OF 010
operational scope is limited to the Far East. But you may say that
when America goes to deal with a problem on the other side of the
globe, Japan will go together. That's not what the law means. The
Constitution of Japan's idea is, if and when there is such a
problem, each member of the United Nations is to comply with the
United Nations' consent and participate in the international
community's efforts to defend peace, as far as each member of the
United Nations can do under its circumstances. The United Nations
Charter also allows both the right of individual self-defense and
the right of collective self-defense in each region as natural
rights. If Japan and the United States come under attack before the
United Nations makes a decision, then Japan and the United States
will fight back to defend themselves. However, the security pact
says Japan and the United States will terminate their joint efforts
when the United Nations has made a decision. Then, the question is
what role Japan will play in the international community. It's
important to establish basic principles. You may want to say that's
just because something happened or just because Japan was asked by
America. Such a makeshift way of doing things will mislead the
nation. Japan should also work together with the international
community in its joint efforts if Japan is requested by the United
Nations to do so. What is your view?
Abe: You're just guessing my view. I've never said Japan will follow
US forces to the other side of the globe. Also, I've never said
Japan must go there just because Japan was asked by America. The
United Nations (Security Council) unanimously adopted the
resolution. Japan is one of the parties concerned and presides over
the UN Security Council, and Japan is responsible for the adoption
of this resolution. So I take it for granted that we should think
about what Japan can do. Also, I take it for granted that we should
cooperate closely with US forces since the United States is our
ally. I'm not saying I will apply the regional contingency law at
once. The situation is changing every moment. I'm thinking about
what Japan should do on its part. North Korea fired missiles, and
it's highly possible that North Korea conducted a nuclear test. In
such a situation, I have a critical responsibility to protect the
Japanese people's lives and assets. It's only natural to check into
every possible law and ordinance on my responsibility.
Ozawa: The United Nations Charter's Article 41 provides mandatory
economic sanctions. It also provides sea inspections and land
blockades that are mandatory. For example, they are not sending
fishing boats for ship inspections. They are sending warships that
will halt ships to inspect their cargoes on board. Ship inspections
relating to the regional contingency law are to be conducted with
consent obtained from ships to be inspected. But this is logically
strange. If we think economic sanctions fall under the category of
peaceful means, that's wrong. The government has to make it a basic
rule for Japan to participate in operations based on the United
Nations' decision, or Japan will only end up finding a way out of
the situation each time. That's not good at all for the future of
Japan.
Abe: Japan's basic principles are very clear-cut. Japan initiated
this resolution on its responsibility. So, in order to make it
effective, it's only natural for Japan to do whatever it can within
the bounds of its laws and ordinances. Each member of the United
Nations is also required to do so. This doesn't mean we will choose
to do nothing or that we will have to do something forcibly. It's
important that Japan will act on its responsibility and play its
role as far as possible.
TOKYO 00006125 008 OF 010
Ozawa: You said Japan will do whatever it can within the bounds of
its laws and ordinances. However, the biggest problem of Japan's
national security is the Constitution. The Constitution will always
crop up whenever there are various problems. I'm not telling you to
do anything or whatsoever. We should let the people know if that's
possible under the Constitution.
(6) Lower House by-election in Osaka No. 9 district is battle to
take the enemy's camp between LDP and Minshuto
ASAHI (Page 4) (Slightly Abridged)
October 20, 2006
Senior LDP member conducts "walk-in sale" with house map in hand
By-elections will be conducted in the Osaka No. 9 and Kanagawa No.
16 districts to fill House of Representatives seats. All the more
because the outcomes of the two elections will affect the management
of Diet affairs, both the ruling and opposition parties have sent
senior lawmakers to the two constituencies to support their
respective candidates. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is
doing its best to garner organized votes by relying on industrial
associations and local assembly members, while the leading
opposition party Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) is trying to
gather votes by sending out party member to recruit supporters. The
showdown between the LDP and Minshuto will come in the Osaka No. 9
constituency.
On the afternoon of Oct. 15, a senior LDP lawmaker was walking
through shopkeepers row in the Osaka No. 9 electoral district. The
lawmaker is a former cabinet member who has no interest in Osaka. He
was looking for the house of the head of an association of shop
owners holding a street map in hand. The party's election taskforce
called such a way of election campaigning a "walk-in sale."
Around the same time, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, using his strong
character in the election, was speaking passionately before an
audience of about 5,000.
Following Abe, New Komeito Chief Representative Akihiro Ota called
out to the audience, saying, "Hello to all of you who have long
supported the New Komeito!" Small flags were waved like ripples
through the crowd. A senior LDP Election Bureau official, who was
mingling in the crowd, detected that most of the audience were New
Komeito supporters. He departed from the scene before Abe finished
his speech.
Four days before Abe and Ota came to Osaka to stump, LDP Election
Bureau chief Yoshio Yatsu visited companies listed on the first
section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and subcontractors in the No. 9
district. The reason was that leading companies do not necessarily
support the LDP.
At Kansai Electric Power Co., Yatsu met with its adviser Yoshihisa
Akiyama, who serves also chairman of the Kansai Economic Federation.
Yatsu asked him for cooperation. Akiyama then gave his promise,
saying, "I will call at KEF member companies in the electoral
district."
At a hotel in Ibaragi City on Oct. 18, Mikio Aoki, chairman of the
LDP caucus in the House of Councillors, and 24 LDP Upper House
members gave a pep talk to about 500 individuals connected with LDP
support groups, including construction, agriculture, commerce and
TOKYO 00006125 009 OF 010
industry, and nursing care. The 500 immediately headed to the No. 9
constituency.
One senior LDP member said: "Mr. Ozawa also often visits companies
and organizations. This election is like a battle to take the
enemy's camp.
Ozawa carries out election campaign on own way; Asks LDP support
organizations for recommendation
Minshuto's election strategy is similar to the LDP's.
At a meeting of an association of restaurants in Minoh City, a
senior association member said: "There are Minshuto supporters in
our association. I think we can give our recommendation to (Minshuto
candidate)." After consulting on the matter, the association decided
to recommend both candidates on the LDP and Minshuto tickets. A
source familiar with the association was surprised at the result of
the discussion, saying, "We have supported the LDP for a long time,
but we were able to arrive at this decision smoothly for the first
time."
Ozawa has personally led the effort to slice down the number of LDP
support groups. After appearing on a television program in Osaka on
Aug. 5, Ozawa called on the Minshuto candidate-to-be at his office
to hear from office staff their election strategy. He also secretly
visited Osaka one month later to meet the heads of municipal
assemblies and assembly members.
In order to carry out the Ozawa-style election strategy, Minshuto
leadership ordered its members to send letters asking
recommendations to organizations to which the main opposition party
had never before sought such support. The association in Minoh City
is one such organization.
In the No.9 district, there are a number of subcontractors of
leading companies, including Daihatsu Motor Co., headquartered in
Ikeda City, related offices and factories. After calling on Daihatsu
labor union officials, Ozawa met on the 11th with Rengo (Japan Trade
Unions Confederation) Osaka Chairman Fumio Ito at a hotel in Ibaragi
City.
Ozawa than urged some 20 local assembly members to support the
campaign, with his mind the April Lower House by-election in the
Chiba No. 7 constituency, which his party won even though it was
said that it would be difficult for its candidate to win.
On the night of Oct, 18 at a Chinese restaurant in Tokyo, Ozawa told
30 Minshuto Upper House members, who are serving in their first-term
in the Diet: "I want to win the by-elections in order to bring about
a political change. I will do my best, so I want you to do your
best, as well."
He is expected to give a street corner speech in Ibaragi City along
with Acting President Naoto Kan and Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama
on the evening of Oct. 20.
Candidates for the Lower House by-election for Osaka No. 9 district
Name Age Party Career
Kenji Harada 58 LDP Ex-Osaka prefectural
assembly member
Nobumori Otani 43 Minshuto Minshuto Osaka chapter
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executive board member
Kuniaki Fujiki 48 JCP Lawyer
SCHIEFFER