Cablegate: Malakal Update: Fragile Calm Returning
VZCZCXRO7666
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #2804/01 3401119
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061119Z DEC 06
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5505
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 002804
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR MARR EAID SU
SUBJECT: Malakal Update: Fragile Calm Returning
Ref: a) Khartoum 02772, b) Khartoum 02765
1. (SBU) Summary: Malakal is returning to a fragile calm, with the
possibility of violence still looming. The ceasefire is holding as
of December 5, civilians are returning to the town, and humanitarian
organizations are being encouraged to resume operations. The Sudan
People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) have
deployed to pre-clash locations, and the GoSS and the GNU are
engaged in post-incident discussions, with President Kiir visiting
Malakal on December 4. However, the underlying causes of the
conflict have not been addressed as unaligned, SAF-supported
Southern Sudan Defense Force (SSDF) militias remain in Malakal.
Both the SPLA and the SSDF are reportedly massing troops in the area
and more violence in greater Upper Nile region is likely.
Hardliners in the SPLM believe that attacks by the SSDF constitute
violations of the CPA because the SSDF is still receiving SAF
support. These hardliners also believe the attacks are an organized
NCP attempt to destabilize their region and are demanding that Kiir
do more to respond. End Summary.
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Ceasefire Holds; Root Causes Still in Place
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2. (SBU) The ceasefire in Malakal is holding following the November
27 outbreak of violence between militias aligned with the SAF and
SPLA (reftels), although there are continuing reports of sporadic
gunfire. Shops are reopening, barge traffic is resuming, and people
are moving freely around town. There are no reports of any targeted
attacks against Northerners. The local government has called for
calm on the radio and urged people to return, which many are doing.
The joint patrols comprised of SPLA, SAF, national police, UN
police, and UNMIL Observers are helping restore order. A buffer
zone exists between the SAF and SPLA, with UNMIS presence in this
zone and at the airport.
3. (SBU) The situation remains tense, however, as the underlying
causes of the violence have not been addressed. The presence of the
SAF-supported, but nominally unaligned SSDF and the absence of a
political solution to the dispute over the Commissioner of Fanjak
position continue to threaten the town. Local SSDF commander
Gabriel Tang (aka Gabriel Gatwech Chan or Tanganya), who holds the
rank of Major General in the SAF and has demanded to be appointed
Commissioner of Fangak, was flown to Khartoum by the UN at the
beginning of the crisis to help defuse the situation. However, the
ongoing presence in the area of both Tang's deputy, Thomas Mabor,
and the SPLM's designated Commissioner of Fangak, John Maluit,
fueled the subsequent violence and continue to create tension.
4. (SBU) The representative of UN OCHA in Malakal is appealing to
international organizations to return to the town to help restore
normality and to address the urgent humanitarian crises, including
disposal of decaying corpses that are contaminating the Nile River,
and access to safe drinking water. The estimated number of dead has
exceeded 150 and the number injured close to 400. The ICRC has
delivered a total of 27 bodies from SAF controlled areas to SPLA
areas. Following the extensive looting, the OCHA is also concerned
about growing numbers of vulnerable people in the town.
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All Sides Investigating the Matter
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5. (SBU) The GOSS and Government of National Unity (GNU) are both
investigating the causes of the fighting. Khartoum reportedly sent
the Minister in the Office of the President, Idris Mohammed Abdel
Kader, to Juba to discuss the situation over the weekend of December
2. Although the press said that GoSS Vice President Riek Machar was
sent to Malakal, Machar explained he did not go because the GoSS
wanted to first send military commanders to address the situation on
the ground. ConGen contacts have asserted that some SPLM/A members
opposed dispatching Machar, a powerful Nuer leader who founded the
militias that became the SSDF. They say that Machar and former SSDF
leader Lt. Gen. Paulino Matip, now SPLA Deputy Commander-in-Chief,
may have been involved in the original attack and should be
distanced from any resolution of the situation.
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SPLM Growing Impatient As Calls for Action Grow
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6. (SBU) The Joint Integrated Unit (JIU) presence in Malakal has
been descried as useless by a senior GoSS official, and it appears
to be playing no active role in restoring security or public
confidence. The SPLA has dispatched Deputy Director of Operations
Piang, who was joined by the Deputy Commander of the JIUs in
Southern Sudan, Major General Thomas Cirillo, to Malakal. (Note:
Chief of Staff Oyai Deng Ajak is visiting South Africa. End note.)
Hardliners in the SPLA, including Deng and others, reportedly were
not dispatched to Malakal by Kiir, who is concerned about escalating
the military response. ConGen contacts report concerns among SPLA/M
KHARTOUM 00002804 002 OF 002
members that Kiir is not taking a hard enough position to rid the
South of the militia problem.
7. (SBU) There is widespread belief among Southerners that the
National Congress Party (NCP) is behind the Malakal violence. GoSS
President Salva Kiir, SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum and GoSS
Vice President Machar have all publicly asserted that the NCP must
take responsibility for any tribal militias that it trained, armed,
and financed. They believe these groups continue to follow an NCP
agenda to destabilize the South. The SAF has only admitted to
providing non-lethal aid, such as food and clothing, to the groups
it supported during the war, a move it says it necessary to maintain
calm until a proper disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration
(DDR) process can take place.
HUME