Cablegate: Germany/Munich Security Conference: Scene Setter for The

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MUNICH 000384

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARAGRAPH NUMBERING)

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT PLEASE PASS SENATOR MCCAIN AND SENATOR LIEBERMAN
OSD POLICY FOR RDOTSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: TAGS
ZL, GM

SUBJECT: GERMANY/MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Scene Setter for the
Munich Security Conference, February 6 - 8, 2009 (CORRECTED COPY)

MUNICH 00000384 001.2 OF 004

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The annual Munich Security Conference, the "Davos of the
security world," uniquely brings official national delegations
together with private opinion makers and experts in an informal
setting conducive to lively debate and dialogue. The MSC this year
holds its first session on Friday, February 6, 2009 at 16:00, an
earlier start in the weekend than in past years. The conference
closes Sunday, February 8, around noon. The organizers hope
Secretary of Defense Gates will attend as he has in past years and
their direct Congressional contacts reportedly have said that
Senator McCain will lead the CODEL, joined by Senator Lieberman and
others whom the Senators will select. The MSC organizers invited
Secretary of State-designate Clinton and Bavarian Minister President
Horst Seehofer invited President-elect Obama, but the organizers
realize their participation would be unprecedented. Other prominent
Americans will attend. The MSC expects Chancellor Merkel to
participate, and they believe French President Sarkozy (close hold)
is leaning strongly toward coming, as is Afghan President Karzai,
but not Russian President Medvedev. The Russians appear to be
awaiting decisions on the composition of the USDEL. The draft
agenda (subject to change) follows at paragraph 10. End Summary.

The Traditional Conference Matures
----------------------------------

2. (SBU) German Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, the new leader of
the Munich Security Conference (MSC), has acknowledged the
traditional "focus on transatlantic and European security issues at
the MSC will expand to include other global and regional issues
affecting international peace and stability." The MSC will open
earlier this year than in past years, on Friday, February 6, and it
will sport new elements inside familiar outlines. One of these is a
Young Leaders Roundtable on Security Policy (YLR) that will convene
a day earlier, on February 5, and run through the MSC. (NOTE:
Ambassador Ischinger bio: https://www.intelink.gov/diplopedia/
index.pthp?title=Category:Germany_Biography.)

The US has a Special Relationship to the MSC
--------------------------------------------

3. (SBU) Speaking Roles for USDEL:

The organizers have acknowledged repeatedly the special US-German
relationship at this conference. They want to maintain it even as
the MSC matures. The organizers expect high-level USG speakers will
address the MSC and, they hope, the YLR. They want to provide
appropriate, prominent speaking roles for high level USDEL members.
These speaking opportunities will emerge in bilateral discussions as
the conference plans mature.

4. (SBU) USG Invitees:

The organizers have invited President-elect Obama, Secretary of
Defense Gates, and Secretary of State-designate Clinton. (Note: The
MSC is not conceived as a Summit. Neither a U.S President nor a
sitting Secretary of State has ever attended. End Note). They have
invited National Security Advisor-designate Jones, and James
Steinberg. The MSC organizers understand from their own
Congressional contacts that Senator McCain will again lead the
CODEL, joined by Senator Lieberman. The MSC has invited Senators
Biden, Hagel, and Lugar, as well as Representatives Harman and
Tauscher.

5. (SBU) Other US Invitees:

Mission Germany notes that the MSC attracts other influential
Americans in addition to the official USDEL and CODEL. Private
participating Americans (such as former Secretary of State
Kissinger) are often affiliated with the CODEL or USDEL, making this
event unique for our delegations in many respects. Other
delegations are similarly rich with notable participants in the

MUNICH 00000384 002.2 OF 004

security and foreign policy fields.

6. (U) Bilateral Consultations:

The MSC presents many opportunities for bilateral consultations
between members of the USDEL and members of other delegations.
ConGen Munich will make appropriate logistical arrangements to
facilitate these meetings, in close consultation with our
delegations.

7. (SBU) SecDef Cocktail Reception:

Mission Germany recalls the successful cocktail reception hosted in
the past by the Secretary of Defense for Members of the German
Bundestag (Parliament) and suggests repeating it this year, if time
permits, and considering adding other selected guests, as
appropriate.

8. (SBU) Meeting with the Bavarian CSU:

The MSC organizers are discussing with the Bavarian Christian Social
Union (CSU) if and when CSU representatives will meet for
discussions with senior members of the US Delegation on the opening
day of the conference. This is a session first instituted in 2006
and widely regarded as a useful event. The CSU is a member of the
Federal coalition government. CSU Secretary General Karl-Theodor zu
Guttenberg would most likely lead the discussion for the CSU
(Guttenberg bio: http://intelink.gov/diplopedia/
index.php?title=Karl_Theodor_Freiherr_zu_Gutt enberg)

High-Level Invitees from Other Countries
----------------------------------------

9. (SBU) German Chancellor Merkel, FM Steinmeier, and DefMin Jung
will lead the German delegation. The MSC organizers believe French
President Sarkozy will come, as well as Afghan President Karzai.
The Russians have told the MSC organizers that President Medvedev
would probably not come unless his American counterpart were there.
Depending on the leadership of the USDEL, Russia could send FM
Lavrov and/or DefMin Serdukov. Russian PM Putin has not been
invited. Polish PM Tusk is participating. Georgian FM
Tkeshalashvili has been invited.

Schedule and Topics of Sessions
-------------------------------

10. (SBU) Here are the draft schedule and topics. CAVEAT: this
schedule is subject to change and should not be disseminated outside
the USG at this time.

Thursday, February 5
--------------------

Pre-conference event: Young Leaders Roundtable (YLR) on Security
Policy. (US speaker will be invited to address the YLR on Thursday
or Friday morning).

Friday, February 6
--------------------

Time TBD: USDEL Meeting with the Bavarian Christian Social Union
(CSU) (TBD)

Morning: Young Leaders Roundtable on Security Policy continues (US
speaker will be invited).

16:00 - 19:00: First Plenary Session of MSC. "Nonproliferation,
Arms Control, and the Future of Nuclear Weapons: Is Zero Possible?"

Opening statement by Ambassador Ischinger.

Keynote Statement by German FM Steinmeier, answered by Henry
Kissinger (confirmed). Thereafter: High Level Panel Discussion
(panel members TBD) and interactive dialogue with participants.

MUNICH 00000384 003.2 OF 004

19:00: Reception and Dinner hosted by the MSC organizers.

Evening: No-host cocktails in one of the hotel bars.

Saturday, February 7
--------------------

9:00 - 13:00: Second Plenary Session. "Towards a New European
Security Architecture." This Session will feature set speeches by
panelists, including German Chancellor Merkel; French President
Sarkozy (CLOSE HOLD PARTICIPATION AT THIS TIME); Polish PM Tusk;
High Level American (TBD); High Level Russian (TBD)

13:00 - 14:30 Lunch hosted by the MSC organizers.

14:30 - 16:00: Second Plenary Session continued: Reactions to
morning speeches by panelists and participants.

16:30 - 18:30: Two concurrent "breakout" panel discussions.

Breakout Panel 1: Managing Instability: Georgia, Ukraine, and the
Western Balkans.

Breakout Panel 2: Managing Instability: The Crisis of Global
Governance.

20:00: Dinner hosted by the Bavarian Minister President Horst
Seehofer. (Seehofer bio: https://www.intelink.gov/diplopedia/
index.pthp?title=Category:Germany_Biography).

Evening: No-host cocktails in one of the hotel bars.

Sunday, February 8
--------------------

9:00 - 12:00: Fourth Plenary Session: Mission Impossible?
Afghanistan and the Future Strategy of NATO. Panel, including
President Karzai (TBC), German DefMin Jung (TBC), High Level USDEL
member (TBC), followed by discussion. Followed by Amb. Ischinger's
closing remarks.

12:00 (TBC) Informal Closing lunch.

11. (SBU) Conference Facilities and Socializing
Facilities:

a) The MSC will again use the Bayerischer Hof Hotel as its
headquarters and main conference venue. Seating will be extremely
limited again this year as the conference organizers want to
maintain the intimate character of the MSC and they must also
respect the size limits of the venue. The MSC will also use nearby
public conference rooms of the Hypovereins Bank (HVB), just across a
small street from the hotel. Conference organizers are consulting
closely with the Bavarian and German authorities on security
arrangements and agreed to work closely with the RSO and Consulate
staff. The MSC plans to use the HVB building for one of the panel
discussions and for the Friday dinner and Saturday lunch.

b) Evening/Late Night Cocktails:

The MSC considers arranging evening cocktail gatherings so that
participants can meet informally and continue discussions after
dinner.

12. (U) Munich Young Leaders Round Table on Security Policy (YLR),
February 5 - 8:

For a pre-conference event, the MSC has invited 25 young leaders
(from Germany, NATO member states, Partnership for Peace Member
States, Member States in the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul
Cooperation Initiative) to come to Munich one day earlier for a
program and debate forum designed especially for them. On the
morning of February 6, the MSC hopes that a high-level member or
members from the US Delegation will address the Young Leaders before
the formal opening of the MSC that afternoon. The Young Leaders then

MUNICH 00000384 004.2 OF 004

join the MSC as Observers after their own program ends. The Koerber
Foundation is organizing the YLR (Official link to the Young Leaders
Roundtable:
http://www.koerber-Stiftung.de/
projekte/dialog_und_verstaendigung/
netzwerk_aussenpolitik/myl/index.html).

13. (SBU) Dealing with Public Protest:

For the first time, the MSC organizers and the leadership of both
PAX CHRISTI and the Friedenskonference and have invited one
representative from these peace groups to come to the MSC as an
official observer. Other protestors, such as "Attack," and groups
organized by a Mr. Schreer, have refused to engage with the MSC and
the organizers expect them to stage public protests as they have in
the past.

14. (U) ConGen Munich coordinated this cable with Embassy Berlin.

15. (U) Track Munich reporting at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any.

NELSON

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