Cablegate: Seoul - Press Bulletin; October 14, 2009

VZCZCXRO0277
OO RUEHGH
DE RUEHUL #1620/01 2880224
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 150224Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5906
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 9272
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC//DDI/OEA//
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA//
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DB-Z//
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0390
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6774
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 6842
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 1371
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5157
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 4114
RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 7326
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1611
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2923
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2003
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2610

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 SEOUL 001620

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; October 14, 2009

TOP HEADLINES
-------------

Chosun Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, All TVs
Koreas to Hold Talks on Flood Prevention Today

JoongAng Ilbo
ROK Military Poorly-Equipped Due to Lack of Money

Dong-a Ilbo
ROKG Stays Cool amid Latest N. Korea Missile Launches

Hankook Ilbo
"Dialogue Mood" Sets in between Two Koreas

Hankyoreh Shinmun
Ruling Camp Considers Revising Sejong City Project to Make Sejong a
City Equipped with Green Growth Industries, Educational and Research
Facilities

Seoul Shinmun
"Two-Faced N. Korea:" N. Korea Accepts Seoul's Proposal
for Talks One Day after Test-firing Missiles

DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS
---------------------

According to the Unification Ministry, North Korea has accepted
Seoul's proposal for inter-Korean talks this week over flood
prevention and humanitarian issues. The North's latest conciliatory
gesture comes one day after it test-fired five short-range missiles
off its east coast. (All)

According to an ROKG source, the ROK military is on the alert for
more North Korean short-range missile tests after the North declared
a navigation ban also in the West Sea. (Chosun, Dong-a, Segye,
Seoul)

The ROKG yesterday refrained from making an official response to
North Korea's Oct. 12 missile launches. This move seems to have come
out of consideration of the upcoming working-level talks with North
Korea slated for today and tomorrow. (Dong-a, Seoul)

U.S. NASA Chief Charles Bolden, Jr. said at the International
Astronautical Congress in Daejeon that future cooperation with the
ROK would be possible in such areas as lunar exploration, satellites
and the field of aeronautics. (Chosun, Hankyoreh, Segye)

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
------------------

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, during an Oct. 13 press
conference in Russia, said "We have absolutely no intention of
relaxing or offering to relax North Korean sanctions at this point
whatsoever." (Chosun, all TVs)

MEDIA ANALYSIS
--------------
-N. Korea
---------
Conservative Chosun Ilbo and all TV networks gave coverage to Oct.
13 press remarks in Russia by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in
which she said: "We have absolutely no intention of relaxing or
offering to relax North Korean sanctions at this point whatsoever."

North Korea's acceptance yesterday of Seoul's proposal for
inter-Korean talks over flood prevention and humanitarian issues
received wide press attention. Most media noted that this
conciliatory North Korean gesture came one day after it test-fired

SEOUL 00001620 002 OF 007

five short-range missiles off its east coast, and criticized the
North's two-faced attitude of conducting missile tests while at the
same time seeking negotiations.

Most media also reported that the ROK military is on the alert for
more North Korean short-range missile tests after the North declared
a navigation ban also in the West Sea. A ROKG source was quoted as
saying: "Although there are no concrete signs of preparations for
missile tests yet, we're watching closely in the West Sea."

The ROKG's low-profile response to North Korea's Oct. 12 missile
launches also received wide press attention. An ROK Foreign
Ministry official was quoted: "The North's missile launch was a
violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874, but we have no
plan to make an official announcement."

Most newspapers observed that this ROKG move is in stark contrast to
its reaction after Pyongyang's July 4 launch of one short-range and
six mid-range missiles over the East Sea, and seems to have come out
of consideration of the upcoming working-level talks with North
Korea slated for today and tomorrow.

Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "UN sanctions against North
Korea have been undermined by China's recent offer of massive aid to
North Korea. ... In this situation, the ROKG is also considering
providing the North with 10,000 to 30,000 tons of rice. ... If we
pull the teeth out of the sanctions against North Korea even before
starting talks with North Korea, we cannot reach the goal of
denuclearizing North Korea."

OPINIONS/EDITORIALS
-------------------

CO2 EMISSIONS AND GDP
(Dong-a Ilbo, October 14, 2009, page 38)

By Editorial writer Park Yeong-kyun

Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels announced Oct. 2 that 1,000 U.S. mayors
signed an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with
Kyoto Protocol standards. The mayors urged the U.S. federal and
state governments to cut greenhouse gas emissions seven percent from
1990 levels by 2012. In 2005, Seattle cut CO2 levels eight percent
and Los Angeles seven percent from 1990 levels. The U.S. has been
criticized for its lukewarm effort to cut such emissions, but the
amount of greenhouse gases reduced due to voluntary efforts by state
governments is equivalent to that of the European Union and Japan.

In the growth rate of CO2 emissions since 1990, the ROK ranked first
among member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. According to the International Energy Agency, the
ROK's CO2 emissions in 2007 jumped a whopping 113 percent from 1990,
the highest growth in the OECD. The country also remained the
world's ninth-largest greenhouse gas emitter between 2006 and 2007,
following China, the U.S., Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Canada and
Britain.

It makes sense that CO2emissions increase when GDP increases because
of (the effect of) economic growth. Economic growth explains why
China, dubbed "the world's factory," has become the world's largest
CO2emitter and why other emerging economies such as Russia and India
rank high on the list. The ROK is different, however. Korea's
nominal GDP ranked 11th in the world in 2003 but fell behind those
of India, Brazil, Russia and Australia to drop four notches to 15th
place in 2007. Nevertheless, the level of ROK's CO2 emissions has
remained unchanged because its economy is heavily dependent on
manufacturing, which uses coal and produces a large amount of carbon
emissions.

At this year's U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, global
leaders will discuss the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions after
2013. The ROK is highly likely to be subject to mandatory caps on
emissions. At a U.N. climate conference last month, leaders of

SEOUL 00001620 003 OF 007

major economies such as the U.S., China and India promised to cut
emissions. The European Union announced a cut of 20 percent and
Japan 25 percent from 1990 levels and the U.S. 17 percent from 2005
levels. The ROK has suggested three scenarios: increasing
greenhouse gas emissions no more than eight percent; a stop to a
further rise of emissions; or a cut of four percent from 2005
levels. Yet just a few years are left before 2013. The ROK must
urgently pursue a green growth strategy contributing to reducing CO2
emissions.

(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)

USING IMJIN RIVER TALKS TO SHIFT N. KOREA POLICY
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, October 14, 2009, page 35)

This week, a group of meetings is scheduled between South Korean and
North Korean authorities. They have agreed to hold working-level
talks in Kaesong on Wednesday in order to prevent a reoccurrence of
the Imjin River flood disaster, and a Red Cross working-level
meeting on Friday. Apart from the Red Cross talks, where matters
such as reunions for separated families during the Chuseok holiday
and humanitarian aid to North Korea were discussed, this is the
first time in over three months that authorities from the two
countries have met directly. The third set of working-level talks
in July which discussed issues pertaining to economic collaboration
on the Kaesong Industrial Complex was the last time the two
countries met. This is the first positive news in some time for
people concerned that North Korea's relations with the U.S. and
China are advancing ahead of its relations with the ROK.

When the ROK proposed these talks and a schedule, North Korea
accepted immediately without modifications. This is another
indication of North Korea's active determination to improve
inter-Korean relations that has been sustained continuously ever
since the mourning delegation's visit to pay their respects at the
memorial service of late President Kim Dae-jung in Aug. It also
coincides with Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's statement at the
second trilateral leaders' meeting of China, the ROK and Japan on
Saturday, when he remarked that North Korea's intent to improve
inter-Korean relations was the strongest sense he felt during his
visit to North Korea.

On the other hand, although the ROK first proposed the dialogue, it
still seems that it delayed too long in setting the meeting. One
cannot erase the sense that authorities waited and failed to take
action following the Imjin River flood disaster, when talk was rife
about the need for inter-Korean dialogue to prevent similar
incidents from occurring in the future, and were only compelled to
take action after China's strong urging to engage in dialogue. The
status and level of the dialogue also appear to be merely
working-level and casual, in contrast to the actions of North Korea,
the U.S. and China, which are taking the first steps in the broader
scheme of things toward a solution for the North Korean nuclear
issue through dialogue.

There are important matters to address at the Imjin River talks.
Responsibility for the disaster needs to be clearly established, and
a plan needs to be set in place so that the incident is not
repeated. At the Red Cross talks, it is important to stress that
separated family members who do not have long to live should be
allowed to meet and not be forced to wait for a holiday or special
occasion, and that food aid would be provided to North Koreans
suffering from starvation. North Korea, for its part, should not
simply make demands, but give an explanation and express its remorse
for its role in the Imjin River disaster.

The list of matters to discuss, however, should not stop there. As
inter-Korean relations remain stagnant, North Korea and China are
rapidly growing closer in political and economic terms. While the
ROK is focusing only on sanctions against North Korea, its ability
to make its voice heard on issues related to the Korean Peninsula is
growing weaker. Without an improvement in inter-Korean relations, it

SEOUL 00001620 004 OF 007

will be difficult for us to play a greater role in regional affairs.
We hope the Lee Administration uses this series of talks as an
opportunity to affect a major shift in its North Korea policy.

(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)

N. KOREA IS BACK ON TOP OF ITS GAME
(Chosun Ilbo, October 14, 2009, page 39)

North Korea fired five short-range missiles from its eastern coast
on Monday capable of hitting targets 120 km away. The missiles pose
one of the greatest threats to the ROK. North Korea also declared
an area off South Pyongan Province in the west off-limits to ships,
which suggests it is preparing to fire missiles from its western
coast as well.

From April to July, North Korea fired a total of 18 missiles and
conducted one nuclear test. For three months after that, it
appeared to have calmed down. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who
visited Pyongyang early this month, told President Lee Myung-bak and
Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, "This is the time to talk to
North Korea." But now the North has conducted another series of
missile tests even before the echo of Wen's comments had gone
silent.

The missile tests violate UN Security Council resolutions. UN
sanctions against North Korea have been undermined by China's recent
offer of massive aid to North Korea. In this situation, the ROKG is
also considering providing the North with 10,000 to 30,000 tons of
rice. At this point, who is in a position to call for additional
sanctions against the North for violating the UN resolutions?

The ROKG said the missile tests could be part of North Korea's
efforts to improve the range of the missiles. In other words, the
latest missile launches may not be attempts by North Korea to
pressure the ROK, the U.S. and the international community. The
U.S. is trying hard to ignore the tests, apparently because
Washington wants to minimize the impact and continue in an
atmosphere of dialogue.

Even countries that are at war with each other hold talks. What
matters is their purpose. Sanctions and dialogue are both part of
the two-pronged strategy to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear
weapons program. Sanctions alone will not be effective, and talks
will not be able to end the nuclear standoff. The key lesson from
past disasters is that sanctions and dialogue must be pursued
together.

But if we pull the teeth out of the sanctions against North Korea
even before starting talks with North Korea, we cannot reach the
goal of denuclearizing North Korea. The situation has deteriorated
to this level because the ROK, the U.S., China and Japan have all
either taken individual steps to talk with North Korea or have taken
part in measures that weaken UN sanctions without agreeing on a
concerted strategy.

As if nothing had happened, only a day after its missile launches
North Korea accepted an ROK proposal for talks to control the
release of water from dams along the Imjin River and to discuss
additional reunions of separate families. Pyongyang has regained
control of the situation.

(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)

N. KOREA'S DUAL ATTITUDE
(JoongAng Ilbo, October 14, 2009, page 46)

Inter-Korean talks will take place starting today to discuss ways to
prevent damage from flooding at the Imjin River. The ROKG proposed
talks with North Korea two days ago and North Korea accepted the

SEOUL 00001620 005 OF 007

offer in one day. The talks will be working-level but will carry
significance in that inter-Korean talks, which have been stalled for
almost two years, will resume. However, North Korea launched five
short-range missiles over the East Sea on the same day that the ROKG
proposed the talks. This violates the UN Security Council
Resolution that bans test-firing of ballistic missiles. It seems
that North Korea fired the missiles in response to the two-track
policy by the ROK, the U.S. and Japan to pursue both pressure and
dialogue at the same time to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue.
North Korea is making deliberate moves to leverage its bargaining
position prior to talks with the U.S. We need to understand North
Korea's intentions properly in order to respond to them effectively.

We assume that North Korea has agreed to the inter-Korean talks
based on its judgment that talks with the U.S. will not go smoothly
unless tensions on the Korean Peninsula abate. This assumption
seems reasonable in that North Korea agreed to talk with the ROK on
agenda items that include the North's apology for the unannounced
discharge of the Hwanggang Dam and measures to prevent recurrence of
such an incident. (Previously) the North would not have easily
accepted these agenda items as topics for discussion even when there
was a thaw in inter-Korean relations. In the same vein, North Korea
agreed to hold talks focused on arranging reunions of families
separated by the Korean War. Whatever their motive, North Korea's
willingness to discuss the agenda is a positive sign. We hope that
this will facilitate further inter-Korean talks and pave the way for
inter-Korean issues to be settled quickly. In addition, we urge
North Korea to work on ways to resolve the nuclear issue at the
inter-Korean talks.

North Korea's intentions behind the missile launches appear much
more complicated. The KN-02 missiles North Korea fired this time
are an updated version (of the Russian SS-21.) Analysts say that
the missiles will strike not only the metropolitan area and
Pyeongtaek naval base but also Pyeongtaek's U.S. military bases,
which are currently under construction. It seems that North Korea
intended to put military pressure on the ROK and the U.S. by
displaying improved missile capabilities. North Korea wanted to
prove that joint U.S.-ROK military forces would not be able to
easily respond to its missile launches because its missiles use
solid fuel and are fired from mobile launchers. North Korea also
seemed to have a political intention to gain a stronger bargaining
position in talks with the U.S. North Korea apparently is seeking
to become more insistent in its demands while the U.S is expected to
focus on the North's nuclear dismantlement. North Korea is calling
on the U.S. to shift its antagonistic policy toward the North. In
this regard, North Korea is directly targeting the alliance between
the ROK and the U.S. North Korea is likely to demand that the U.S.
back off its commitment to extend a nuclear umbrella over the ROK
and that the U.S. pull its forces out of the Korean Peninsula in
return for the North accepting U.S. demands. This is what the ROK
should be most cautious about.

Whatever motives North Korea has, we should rein in the situation
according to our objectives and plans. We should devise ways to
maximize our national interest by considering many factors such as
inter-Korean relations, North Korea-China relations, ROK-U.S.
relations and U.S.-North dialogue. To this end, we should take
action strategically and promptly based on the rational and careful
judgment without being swayed by the fast-changing situation. The
ROKG's capability in diplomacy and security will be tested from now
on.

FEATURES
---------

"OBAMA EFFECT;" WIND OF RECONCILIATION BLOWING AROUND THE GLOBE
(JoongAng Ilbo, October 14, 2009, Page 14)

By Reporter Nam Jung-ho

Way to a World beyond Borders

SEOUL 00001620 006 OF 007

Although there is some controversy over U.S. President Barack
Obama's winning of the Nobel Peace Prize, it is true that a "balmy
breeze of reconciliation" started to blow in every corner of the
world. Obama's style of "Smart Power" - a policy under which the
U.S. breaks with unilateralism and uses a proper combination of
military power and diplomatic resolutions - is changing the global
atmosphere. This is the result of Obama's efforts toward the "world
beyond our border," which is stated in his book, "The Audacity of
Hope."

Since his inauguration, President Obama traveled more than any of
his predecessors. Consequently, as the world is trying to go beyond
barriers of race, ideology, and power struggle and resolve issues
through dialogue, the global map of foreign relations is changing.

Thaw in Conflict Areas

First of all, the situation regarding North Korea's and Iran's
nuclear proliferation, which deteriorated under former George W.
Bush's hard-line policy, has changed. The North Korean nuclear
issue has entered into a phase of dialogue, although it is
conditional on the beginning of U.S.-North Korea bilateral talks.
Iran also said that it will accept international inspection of its
uranium enrichment facilities.

Another significant progress is the U.S.-Russia agreement on nuclear
arms reduction. Under the leadership of President Obama, the U.S.
and Russia agreed to reduce their nuclear warheads from the current
6,000 to 1,500-1,750. In addition, efforts are undergoing to
improve relations with Cuba and Venezuela, countries which the U.S.
had classified as its enemy states until recently. Since President
Obama has also been emphasizing "engagement with enemies," hopes of
a thaw in relations with these countries are being raised.

"Smart Power" Diplomacy

Many observers say that Obama's many achievements in just eight
months in office are directly related to his foreign policy
philosophy. Above all, he is opposed to U.S. unilateralism based on
military power. He believes that the U.S. should gauge the opinion
of every nation before building a global consensus and then make a
joint response.

This belief is clearly set out in his book, "The Audacity of Hope."
In the book, he argued, "It will almost always be in our strategic
interest to act multilaterally rather than unilaterally when we use
force around the world." Therefore, he prefers the "Smart Power"
diplomacy - using a proper mixture of military power and diplomatic
negotiations.

U.S. Approval Ratings Soaring

The global image of the U.S., which worsened after wars broke out in
Afghanistan and Iraq following the September 11 terrorist attacks,
has improved noticeably since President Obama took office. Coupled
with the popularity of the first U.S. African-American President, a
change in the U.S. attitude won a favorable response especially from
Europe.

A recent Pew Research Center survey found that favorable views of
the U.S. jumped from 31 percent in 2008 to 64 percent this year in
Germany; 33 percent to 58 percent in Spain; and 42 percent to 75
percent in France. The same trend was also shown in Middle East
countries, such Egypt and Jordan.

Challenges ahead

It cannot be said, however, that there are no knotty problems for
Obama. Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are the biggest concern.
During his presidential campaign, Obama pledged to pull out troops
(from the region). However, Obama is concerned that if the U.S.
withdraws its troops, both conflicts could degenerate into "failed
wars." Therefore, the question of how to wrap up the wars in

SEOUL 00001620 007 OF 007

Afghanistan and Iraq, which are still claiming many lives, is
expected to serve as a test for Obama's foreign policy.

STEPHENS

© Scoop Media