Cablegate: Morales, Mas Win Resounding Election Victory

VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #1589/01 3411929
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071929Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0192
INFO RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ

UNCLAS LA PAZ 001589

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PHUM PINR BL
SUBJECT: MORALES, MAS WIN RESOUNDING ELECTION VICTORY

REF: 09 LA PAZ1585

1. Summary: President Evo Morales and his ruling Movement Toward
Socialism party (MAS) won a resounding victory in national
elections on December 6. Parallel vote counts show Morales won
re-election with approximately 63 percent of the vote and that the
MAS won at least 24 of 36 Senate seats. Local press project the
MAS reached their goal of a two-thirds majority in the overall
Plurinational Assembly (Congress). Election observers reported a
generally peaceful and orderly process. In his victory speech,
Morales promised to "accelerate the pace of change" but called for
dialogue with opposition groups. End summary.

Morales Sweeps to Victory

2. President Morales appears to have achieved his goal of winning
re-election and substantial majorities in both houses of the
Plurinational Assembly. Parallel vote counts by both the media and
electoral observers indicate that Morales won re-election with
approximately 63 percent, tracking closely with pre-election
surveys (Reftel). Main opposition challenger Manfred Reyes Villa
captured between 27 and 28 percent, some six points higher than
anticipated, while second-place opposition candidate Samuel Doria
Medina took six percent of the vote, lower than surveys estimated.
The third major opposition candidate, Rene Joaquino, won slightly
less than three percent of the vote. The National Electoral Court
has stated that it will release its first (unofficial) vote totals
by December 8, with certified results expected within a week.
President Morales will be inaugurated on January 22, 2010.

3. News reports awarded the MAS either 24 or 25 Senate seats, with
official results likely necessary before awarding the fourth Senate
seat in Chuquisaca and Beni Departments. Parallel vote counts
awarded the MAS all four seats in La Paz, Oruro, and Potosi
Departments, three seats in Cochabamba, and two seats in Santa
Cruz, Tarija, and Pando. Reyes Villa's PPB party won the remaining
11 or 12 seats. Neither Doria Medina nor Joaquino were projected
to have won any Senate seats. The MAS appears to have won in six
of the nine departments, partially due to the split opposition.

4. In the Plurinational Assembly's lower house, news reports
project that the MAS took up to 85 Deputy seats (out of 130 total),
with Reyes Villa's Progress for Bolivia party (PPB) in second with
38. Doria Medina's National Unity party and Rene Joaquino's Social
Alliance are estimated to have taken only three seats each. If the
MAS takes 25 Senate seats and 85 Deputy positions, they would reach
almost exactly two-thirds of the overall Plurinational Assembly,
i.e., 110 out of 166 combined seats in total. (Note: With a
two-thirds overall majority, the MAS would be able to pass required
Constitutional implementing legislation and amend the Constitution
without needing any opposition support. End note.) The new
legislators are expected to enter into session for the first time
on January 6, 2010.

5. In international voting, exact figures were not available, but
initial reports indicated that Morales won a large majority in
Argentina, perhaps over 90 percent, and slimmer majorities in Spain
and Brazil. Local media reported that Reyes Villa won in the U.S.,
taking up to 60 percent of the vote. International voting was
estimated at three percent of the total.

Election Observers Affirm Process, Results

6. Electoral observation missions, including the OAS, European
Union, Carter Center, and local group Bolivia Transparente all
indicated the elections were free and fair, with a minimum of
violence or irregularities. The observer groups commended the
National Electoral Court for its coordination of the elections,
which ran smoothly in almost all cases. Bureaucratic mistakes,
such as incorrect delivery of election lists to individual election
centers, were quickly remedied by the National Electoral Court or
departmental affiliates. Charge and Poloffs, accredited by the
National Electoral Court, observed local election centers and saw
no irregularities.

7. Bolivia Transparente reported that 94.4 percent of all election
centers guaranteed the opportunity for a secure and private vote.
The monitoring group noted only one accusation of coerced voting
(in the Camacho district in the western Altiplano area). Local
news media reported outbreaks of minor violence in Santa Cruz and
Pando Departments, but did not report any serious injuries or
deaths.

Morales Calls for Change, Dialogue

8. In his victory speech from the Presidential Palace on election
night, Morales said "having obtained more than two-thirds of the
Senators and Deputies obliges me to accelerate the process of
change" in Bolivia. He called for opposition groups to work with
him for change and underlined that his next government would be

characterized by dialogue. Separately, local news daily La Razon
reported that Morales said while voting that, "Constitutionally,
this is my first election under the new Bolivian Constitution,"
indicating that he could seek another term of office in five years.
Creamer

© Scoop Media