Cablegate: Positive Vibes From President's Visit; Shanghai Scholars

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RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 2285
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RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 0611
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0073
RUEHGP/AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE 0297
RHHMUNA/USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 9070

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000475

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL ECON ETRD EINV PGOV PHUM CH
SUBJECT: POSITIVE VIBES FROM PRESIDENT'S VISIT; SHANGHAI SCHOLARS
OUTLINE CHALLENGES

SUMMARY

-------

1. (SBU) Shanghai-based scholars generally expressed positive
views on President Obama's November visit to China during a
panel discussion on December 7 but noted areas of friction and
disagreement that remain unresolved. They appeared optimistic
that U.S.-China relations are headed in the right direction with
opportunities to resolve common challenges. Several scholars
stressed, however, that there remain fundamental differences in
the relationship, including views on Taiwan and human rights.
End summary.

PANEL DISCUSSION IN SHANGHAI

----------------------------

2. (SBU) The Shanghai Association of American Studies (SAAS)
hosted a panel discussion on "Obama's State Visit to China and
Promise of U.S.-China Relations" December 7. SAAS President
Ding Xinghao, a veteran "U.S. watcher" of 30-plus years,
moderated the panel, which featured Fudan University Center for
American Studies (CAS) Director Shen Dingli, Fudan CAS Deputy
Director Wu Xinbo, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS)
Vice Director Huang Renwei, Fudan professor Pan Rui, and
University of Wisconsin professor Wang Jianwei, as well as the
Consul General. More than 100 scholars and graduate students
attended along with business and media representatives and
officials. Consulate-produced pamphlets on the President's
November 16 town hall meeting in Shanghai were eagerly received
by attendees.

POSITIVE REACTION TO THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT

------------------------------------------

3. (SBU) Panelists expressed largely positive views on President
Obama's November 15-18 visit to China. Fudan's Wu Xinbo
highlighted President Obama's "cooperative and collaborative
approach" during the visit, and SASS's Huang Renwei pointed to
the administration's constructive regional security efforts in
Asia as demonstrated by the President's stops in Japan, South
Korea, and Singapore. Wang Jianwei characterized President
Obama's visit to China as "an important visit for the strategic
relationship." Chris Qian, a PhD student at Fudan University,
told PolOff after the discussion that his classmates all were
impressed by the cooperative tone of the President's first visit
to China, including his November 16 events in Shanghai.

ADDRESSING COMMON CHALLENGES...

----------------------------

4. (SBU) Presentations recognized the substantial broadening of
the U.S.-China relationship from one focused on bilateral issues
to one increasingly dominated by regional and global concerns.
Fudan's Wu Xinbo said the President's visit to China
demonstrated "new thinking" on many elements of the

SHANGHAI 00000475 002 OF 003

relationship. President Obama is "more open-minded on China's
rise," Wu stated, adding that the recent G-20 and APEC meetings
(in Pittsburgh and Singapore, respectively) indicated "the
United States is now more interested in partnership with China."
He also noted China's welcoming of the United States as an
"Asia-Pacific nation" in the U.S.-China Joint Statement as an
indicator of a shift in thinking on the Chinese side toward
greater support of U.S. engagement in the region. Huang Renwei
from SASS added that the visit's theme of "addressing common
challenges" such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Korea, Iran, or
Iraq further underscored a sense of the United States desiring
partnership with China.

5. (SBU) On the eve of the Copenhagen talks, several panelists
acknowledged the importance of climate change as a new
challenge, but offered no details on possible U.S.-China
environmental cooperation. Pan Rui, Huang Renwei, and Wu Xinbo
glossed over the issue, discussing climate change only in the
context of economic challenges. (Note: International affairs
and regional security scholars previously have told CongenOffs
they lack sufficient background to knowledgably discuss climate
change, and they are concerned there are too few experts in
Shanghai who understand the international political dimensions
of climate change. End note.)

...AND CONFRONTING OLD ONES...

----------------------------

6. (SBU) The professors said they anticipate a continuing
struggle to resolve "old issues," particularly in the economic
relationship. Pan Rui predicted that 2010 would be a difficult
year, with growing friction over trade disputes and renminbi
(RMB) valuation. Pan said the rising unemployment rate in the
United States and the mid-term Congressional elections would
combine to turn the U.S.-China economic relationship into a
domestic political problem for elected officials in the United
States. He pointed out that the reemergence of the
Schumer-Graham Bill on China's exchange rate illustrated the
current level of discontent in the United States with U.S.-China
economic ties. It would require strong bilateral cooperation to
move forward with Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) negotiations
and other U.S.-China economic initiatives in the context of
greater political scrutiny, Pan said.

7. (SBU) Scholars also pointed out continuing regional security
concerns that need to be resolved. Huang Renwei and Fudan CAS
Director Shen Dingli both highlighted the North Korea nuclear
problem as an issue requiring renewed attention. Shen and Wang
Jianwei both noted that the close timing of President Obama's
visit to China and his hosting of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh in Washington served to highlight China's rivalry with
India in Asia. Wang contrasted the characterization of
U.S.-India relations as a "global strategic partnership" in the
U.S.-India Joint Statement with the U.S.-China Joint Statement
focus on specific areas of mutual interest, asking rhetorically,
"What happens to the relationship when those problems
disappear?" Huang added that the United States would need to
reconcile its longstanding treaty alliance with Japan and its
"new relationship" with China.

...BUT SOME SEEMINGLY IMMOVABLE OBSTACLES REMAIN

SHANGHAI 00000475 003 OF 003

--------------------------------------------- ---

8. (SBU) There remain fundamental differences in the
relationship -- including views on Taiwan and human rights --
despite forward progress in other areas, the scholars said.
Shen Dingli offered a lengthy discourse on Taiwan, reiterating
Chinese concerns about U.S. arms sales and other issues. Noting
AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt's November 24 comments in Taipei
that language in the U.S.-China Joint Statement does not
represent any change in the U.S. position concerning sovereignty
over Taiwan, Shen observed the United States still has yet to
accept Beijing's claim to sovereignty over Taiwan. Shen and
Huang Renwei added that human rights remain a difficult issue
and were pessimistic about the future of the U.S.-China human
rights dialogue. However, Huang observed an increased U.S.
willingness to engage with countries with a poor human rights
record, such as Burma and North Korea.

COMMENT: LEFT UNSAID

--------------------

9. (SBU) Notably lacking in the Chinese scholars' various views
were insights on the impact of Chinese domestic politics --
including the goals and interests of the Communist Party and its
leaders -- on President Obama's visit specifically or the
U.S.-China relationship writ large. As a result, the discussion
largely painted the United States as the main actor, with China
forced to respond to U.S. interests and initiatives.
CAMPBA

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