FPI Afternoon Roundup

FPI Afternoon Roundup

Foreign Policy Initiative

December 16, 2009

China
FPI Director for Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork writes: “In two recent speeches, the president and the secretary of state have tried to answer criticisms that Obama administration foreign policy neglects democracy and human rights. Neither however offered much to suggest a change in the priority given to these objectives, or a hint that there would be some effort to achieve results…. Monday, at Georgetown University, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a speech intended at least in part to compensate for her earlier statements and omissions about democracy. With regard to the most significant Chinese democracy movement in over a decade Clinton merely said that ‘those who advocate peacefully for reform within the constitution, such as Charter 2008 signatories, should not be prosecuted.’ In doing so, she glossed over the fact that, Liu Xiao-bo, one of China's most prominent dissidents and a leading symbol of reform is being prosecuted.” – Weekly Standard
Iran
“Iran on Wednesday test-fired an upgraded version of its most advanced missile, which is capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe, in a new show of strength aimed at preventing any military strike against it amid the nuclear standoff with the West. The test stoked tensions between Iran and the West, which is pressing Tehran to rein in its nuclear program. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said it showed the need for tougher U.N. sanctions on Iran.” – Washington Post
“For many months now, American and European intelligence agencies have been trading theories about a spare, two-page document written in Persian that, if genuine, would strongly suggest that scientists in Iran were planning some of the final experiments needed to perfect an atom bomb. But like so many pieces of evidence in the West’s confrontation with Tehran, the neatly written memorandum, laying out the next steps of a complex scientific process, raises as many questions as it answers.” – New York Times
Afghanistan
Editorial: “President Hamid Karzai’s inaugural speech last month resonated with high-minded purpose. He vowed to end the ‘culture of impunity’ and ‘bring to justice’ those who threaten Afghanistan’s future with predatory ways. Ministers in his government, he insisted, “must possess integrity and be professionals serving the nation.” Whom Mr. Karzai chooses for his new cabinet will be the first indicator, after his fraud-marred election, of whether he is truly determined to rein in epidemic levels of corruption and incompetence. His speech on Tuesday to an anti-corruption conference in Kabul suggested, ominously, that he still does not get it…” – New York Times
Pakistan
Seth Cropsey writes: “As another 30,000 U.S. troops get set to deploy to war, most everyone in the White House and the Pentagon knows that the success of their mission won't only be determined in Afghanistan. The most important battle is in fact next door in Pakistan, a country that, even more than Afghanistan, risks not just failure but utter collapse. The nuclear neighbor has become a haven for Taliban and al Qaeda fighters, and its powerful military has been reluctant to take them on. Even when it has, its clumsy, heavy-handed tactics have displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians. All the while, the elected government of President Asif Ali Zardari has only grown weaker.” – Foreign Policy
“The Supreme Court struck down a controversial amnesty on Wednesday that had dismissed allegations of corruption against thousands of Pakistan’s politicians, including President Asif Ali Zardari, effectively restoring the cases against them. As president, Mr. Zardari is granted immunity from prosecution under the Constitution. But the Supreme Court order is expected to reverberate across Pakistan’s rocky political landscape and to further weaken the standing of Mr. Zardari, whom the United States has tried to support as a partner in the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.” – New York Times
Iraq
“With loudspeakers mounted on pickup trucks and riot police offering backup, Iraqi troops on Tuesday ordered a group of Iranian dissidents here to vacate their sanctuary, which has become an irritant in Iraq's relationship with Iran. Members of the Mujaheddin-e Khalq, or MEK, who reside in the 10-square-mile compound, have warned that they will not be taken out alive. Residents and Western officials fear the increasingly tense stalemate at Camp Ashraf could end in bloodshed.” – Washington Post
“LUKoil, which won big at Iraq’s weekend oil auctions, expects a ‘revolution’ in world oil markets when enough crude to add 20 percent to global supply starts to flow from the country’s supergiant fields. LUKoil shareholder Leonid Fedun said Monday that he expected a fivefold rise in Iraqi production to cap oil price growth, while also deterring investors from pursuing more difficult and costly projects. ‘A top manager at a leading Western firm said the modern history of the oil business will be split into the pre-Iraq and post-Iraq periods. I agree,’ Fedun said in an interview.” – Reuters
Kuwait
“The Kuwaiti Prime Minister has survived an opposition bid to depose him over corruption allegations. Sheikh Nasser Mohammad al-Ahmad al-Sabah was questioned on Wednesday over claims he issued a $700,000 cheque to a former member of parliament (MP) and that his office misappropriated millions of dollars of public funds.” – Al Jazeera
Palestine
“The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) has extended the mandates of both president Mahmoud Abbas and the Hamas-dominated parliament until new elections are held. The decision was made by PLO's Central Council at a meeting in Ramallah on Wednesday. Qaid al-Ghul, a PLO representative said: ‘The PLO took the decision that president Abbas and the Legislative Council will continue their duties until the next election in accordance with the Basic Law.’” – Al Jazeera
United States
Der Spiegel interviews Paul Volcker: “The challenge is real. That is the kind of threat that we want to deal with and reassert stability and leadership. I grew up in an environment in which the United States was leading, was a pole of strength….we have to get back in an area where there is confidence in the stability and the authority of the United States. I think we can do that but we have a challenge, we have gotten a wake-up call. There is concern…about how to rebuild the competitiveness of the United States, which inevitably means rebuilding, in part, the manufacturing sector of the economy.” – Der Spiegel
Ideas
John Bolton writes: “‘Universal jurisdiction’ sounds like a term plucked from obscure international law journals, but it has pernicious and profoundly antidemocratic consequences in the real world. A British arrest warrant, issued over the weekend in London for former Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni, shows precisely why….the fallout from this misguided warrant will linger long after it fades from the headlines.” – Wall Street Journal
War On Terror
Thomas Friedman writes: “Let’s not fool ourselves. Whatever threat the real Afghanistan poses to U.S. national security, the ‘Virtual Afghanistan’ now poses just as big a threat. The Virtual Afghanistan is the network of hundreds of jihadist Web sites that inspire, train, educate and recruit young Muslims to engage in jihad against America and the West. Whatever surge we do in the real Afghanistan has no chance of being a self-sustaining success, unless there is a parallel surge — by Arab and Muslim political and religious leaders — against those who promote violent jihadism on the ground in Muslim lands and online in the Virtual Afghanistan.” – New York Times
North Korea
Editorial: “Kudos to the government of Thailand for doing its part to enforce United Nations sanctions on North Korea.…This shipment is another reminder of Kim's willingness to flout international rules. A sensible U.S. policy would reward and encourage other partners for stepping up their sanctions-enforcement, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did in praising the Thai government this week. Washington would also do well to recognize this arms shipment for the signal it is about Kim's reliability as a negotiating partner. The question as Mr. Bosworth returns to Washington is how sensible President Obama's North Korea policy will be…” – Wall Street Journal
“President Barack Obama has written a personal letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il as part of an intense effort to draw the reclusive nation back to nuclear disarmament talks, a senior State Department official said Tuesday. The letter was delivered to North Korean officials last week by Obama's special envoy for North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, during a visit to Pyongyang aimed at restarting the stalled negotiations, the official said.” – Associated Press
“New Zealand officials are investigating whether an Auckland-based company has links to a weapons-filled plane from North Korea that was detained in Bangkok last week. Investigators are still unsure where the plane—carrying 35 tons of missiles, explosives and other armaments—was heading or who coordinated the flight plan. Its five-member crew, from Kazakhstan and Belarus, remains in detention in Bangkok and all five have denied knowledge there were weapons onboard.” – Wall Street Journal
Russia
Uffe Ellemann-Jensen argues: “As winter approaches, many people in Central and Eastern Europe remember the chill caused last winter by Russia’s deliberate cutoff of gas supplies. That shutdown was a harsh reminder that gas is now the Kremlin’s primary political instrument as it seeks to re-establish its privileged sphere of interest in what it thinks of as Russia’s “near-abroad.” If Russia is allowed to continue imposing Moscow’s rules on Europe’s energy supplies, the result will be costly — not only for Europe, but for Russia as well. So it is past time that the European Union stop treating energy as a bilateral issue, with some of the larger member states trying to protect their own narrow interests at the expense of the common European good. The EU urgently needs to build a common energy policy and a single market for natural gas.” – Moscow Times
Romania
“President Traian Basescu of Romania was inaugurated for his second term Wednesday and immediately began working with political parties to form a government that can enforce the tough budget reforms required by the International Monetary Fund. The inauguration ceremony in Bucharest put to rest a bitter dispute over electoral fraud and ushered in a wave of defections from opposition parties that are likely to give the conservative Democratic Liberal party, closely affiliated to Mr. Basescu, the chance to form a government backed by a parliamentary majority and tap an IMF-led €20 billion ($29.07 billion) loan to the country.” – Wall Street Journal
Burma
“Myanmar's detained opposition leader was allowed out of her home Wednesday to meet three ailing elders of her political party, with whom she discussed a reorganization of its leadership. Reporters were not allowed to observe the meeting, but witnessed cars driving both Aung San Suu Kyi, who is under house arrest, and her National League for Democracy colleagues to a state guest house usually used for meetings with the detained opposition leader.” – Wall Street Journal
Sudan
“As Sudan approaches its fifth anniversary of peace, the fragile accord which has held the north and the south together is unravelling and Africa's biggest country is sliding back dangerously towards what was the continent's longest war. Momentous elections are due in a matter of months, a referendum on separation looms and Sudan's complex ceasefire is in open crisis.” – The Independent
Guinea
“Guinea's military leadership has rejected a proposal from a West African regional group to deploy foreign troops in the country to protect civilians as the nation's political crisis deepens. A spokesman for the military government, which seized power in a coup last year, said on Monday that any move to bring international troops to Guinea would be considered a ‘declaration of war’.” – Al Jazeera
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Events

U.S. Diplomacy in the Age of Facebook and Twitter: An Address on 21st Century Statecraft
Brookings Institution
December 17

More Effective Protection for Internally Displaced Persons in Southern Afghanistan
Brookings Institution
December 17

Can Iran’s Bomb be Stopped?
Center for Strategic and International Studies
December 18

18 Months and Beyond: Implications of U.S. Policy in Afghanistan
Middle East Policy Council
January 7

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions in Context
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
January 8

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